FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Tony ^_^

    The Finder: Cancelled.
    Alcatraz: Could go both ways. If it’s renewed, it’s moving to Friday.
    Napoleon Dynamite: Short season renewal.
    Touch: Could go both ways. If it’s renewed, it’s moving to Monday or Friday or held for mid-season.
    Bob’s Burgers: Short season renewal.

  • Max

    On May 14, 2012, is the FOX upfronts, and I know what FOX shows will come back or won’t come back next season:

    Coming back: American Dad, Bones, The Cleveland Show, Family Guy, Fringe, Glee, New Girl, Raising Hope, & The Simpsons
    On the bubble: Bob’s Burgers, Napoleon Dynamite, & Touch
    Won’t come back: Alcatraz, & The Finder
    House – you will be missed

  • TVDude

    I’m not sure about Napoleon. I would say it has a 50-50 chance of returning. It didn’t rate badly, and it could be paired with Bobs Burgers if Fox is trying to move away from the more extreme comedies like The Simpsons and Family Guy. I do agree that Bobs Burgers is more likely to return than Napoleon though despite both shows rating about the same.

  • Dan S

    I personally hope Touch gets canned. It’s not that compelling & it would give Kiefer Sutherland time to finally do that 24 movie that keeps getting postponed.

  • Tommy Mickens

    As promised to Bill Gorman, here are my final picks:

    The Finder – 0%
    Alcatraz – 35%
    Bob’s Burgers – Already renewed for next season, really, but 51% chance of renewal after that
    Touch – 55%
    Napoleon Dynamite – 65%

  • scifi

    Well, I always thought that “certain to be canceled” is more than 15%. Or what is it? Maybe 1%? And 2% is already “likely to be canceled”?..

    Likely to be canceled = 25-35%, not less. As I thought.

  • me

    I kind of liked the Finder too. I wasn’t too sure about it at first, and then it kind of grew on me.

  • scifi

    Omg, I failed in the 1st sequence…

  • Simon

    The Finder – 10% its current ratings may have worked in its favor if it wasnt a freshman show.

    Alcatraz – 50% could be paired with Fringe on fridays if renewed.

    BTW, love seeing RENEWED next to Fringe!

  • mark

    im hoping alcatraz gets renewed

  • alexjones

    alcatraz- 10%
    the finder- 10%
    touch- 60%

  • Sarah

    “On May 14, 2012, is the FOX upfronts…”

    Have they said the time?

  • The End

    The Finder 20%
    Alcatraz 50%
    Touch 60%

    From what I understand. I didn’t suddenly loose touch with reality with my Alcatraz percentage, it’s just how I understand things for this show at the moment.

  • tvfreak

    Game time!

    FRINGE – 66
    RAISING HOPE – 27
    ALCATRAZ – 14
    TOUCH – 25

  • Jase L.

    @Avery:
    “Thursday
    8:00 – The X-Factor/American Idol
    9:00 – Glee”

    Why would Fox waste its best lead-ins on an established show like Glee, rather than use it to launch new shows?

  • Dave

    Alcatraz is a good show that deserves a 2nd season. If not, there needs to be a 2 hour special to resolve the end of season 1.

  • Evanmav

    The Finder 0
    Alcatrazm 10%
    Napoleon Dynamite 40%
    Touch 40 %
    Bob’s Burgers 55%

    I still can’t see Touch being renewed.I mean lets look at the facts. Terra Nova was canceled with pretty much better ratings. Sure it did dip to a 2.1 at one point but that was only once if I believe right where touch has gone LOWER than that. PLUS Terra Nova was at 8 pm and had no lead in where Touch had American Idol has its lead in and a special premiere of its first episode which got 3.9 million in the demo. To go from 3.9 to 1.9 is pretty bad. Terra Nova only went from 3.0 to 2.1 and got canceled so I can’t see them renewing Touch BUT they might just because its Keifer Sutherland and because they’ve canceled all their other freshman dramas

  • Ultima

    @Jase L
    Why would Fox waste its best lead-ins on an established show like Glee, rather than use it to launch new shows?

    Because they’ve had almost no success launching shows out of Idol other than House and Glee. Additionally, the 9pm Thursday hour will be brutal if CBS moves Big Bang Theory there; between that and Grey’s it will be difficult for FOX to launch a new show. They have to move Glee somewhere and at least it is a natural fit and can utilize XF’s/Idol’s lead-in.

    I think they should go so far as to move the Idol results show to 9pm and put a drama on during the much easier 8pm hour.

  • Gary A

    Some thoughts/observations/comments:

    Based on what is renewed and what is most likely to be renewed and considering FOX only programs 15 hours per week, it wouldn’t be a shock to see only 2 hours of new programming in the fall.

    Monday – 1 hour open ( w/ House gone )
    Tuesday – Full ( Glee & NG & RH )
    Wednesday – Full ( XF/AI )
    Thursday – 1 hour open ( even with a renewal of Touch which could go mid season )
    Friday – Full ( Gordon Ramsay & Fringe )
    Saturday – Sports
    Sunday – Full ( with Football overrun, anaimation repeats & 4 or more animation shows that can be plugged in )

    Of course, if FOX holds Touch or Fringe – the Final 13 or BB or ND or AD or TCS for mid season thn that does open up more time. Also, if they hold RH until mid season thye can premire a new comedy on Tuesday.

    Not knocking anyone’s favorite shows, but isn’t about time that FOX either gave up on Sunday animated or at least went in some new directions? Only FG ( and I’m not a fan ) seems to be holding ok. TS seems to be ok but most likely will be gone after its 25 th season. TCS and AD seem anemic compared to FG and TS.

    & @ Avery,
    whu would they schedule Glee after The X Factor/ American Idol? That would be their most valuable time slot and Glee is more likely winding down it’s run and not getting a second wind. IMO

  • KC

    I’m hoping they give Alcatraz another season to catch on. Really like that show.

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