FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Ultima

    @Gary A
    Not knocking anyone’s favorite shows, but isn’t about time that FOX either gave up on Sunday animated or at least went in some new directions?

    Given that FOX is still making money with The Simpsons even though it’s not in off network syndication, they have to be killing it with the Seth MacFarlane stuff.

    If The Flintstones doesn’t take off when it finally hits the air, then there’s probably change coming, but otherwise there’s no need to fix what isn’t broken.

  • Fischer

    Love Touch! Even tho the last few episodes have been bad :/

  • carol

    I for one hope Alcatraz and The Finder both get renewed…give them a chance!!!

  • SJ

    Alcatraz – 0%
    The Finder – 0%

    Napoleon Dynamite – 25% – does anyone even remember this was on the air?
    Touch – 49% – yep, leaning towards cancellation a teensy bit here
    Bob’s Burgers – 75% new episodes ordered, 100% on the schedule in some way, shape or form

  • JJ

    Every “Touch” episode: Jake! Jake! Jake! *Jake ignores* Jake! Jake! Jake! Should not be renewed.

    Upset special: Alcatraz gets renewed.

  • ToXiX

    The Finder = 0% (has absolutely NO chance at renewal)
    Alcatraz = 10%
    Napoleon Dynamite = 50% (could go either way)
    Touch = 60% (more likely to be renewed but could be cancelled)
    Bobs Burgers = 70% (upcoming fall numbers will warrant renewal)

  • Fake Me Out

    Call me crazy, the courts and numerous doctors have … but The Finders fate was sealed when they messed with Bones and it’s fans in order to try to boost Finders premiere ratings. Let this be a lesson to Fox and all other networks, don’t screw around with current shows and their fans in hopes of jump starting a new series.

    YMMV

  • Tommy

    Honestly out of all the bubble shows I think “Bob’s Burgers” is the only one that has a realistic chance of coming back – mostly because there is NO ROOM LEFT on the network.

    Sundays – Set in Stone

    Mondays – Bones will air here with room for 1 other drama (touch or CULT)

    Tuesday – Most likely will be a 4 hour comedy block

    Wednesday – Xfactor/Amer Idol

    Thursday – X-Factor/Amer Idol and probably ‘Glee’ – since its the only place that makes sense and FOX has failed to properly launch a show in this spot for almost 4 years

    Friday – Fringe for 13 episodes and their token hour of Gordon Ramsey. There is room for half a season here where Touch could go or another new show).

    I don’t see FOX picking up more than 2 (3 at the extreme most with some very creative scheduling) drama pilots and 3 comedy pilots.

  • Dennis

    FRINGE – 69 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 24 (-3)
    ALCATRAZ – 16 (+2)
    TOUCH – 23 (-2)

  • Tommy

    * I did not mean to put CULT on my list, that is the CW pilot.

    I mean the untitled Kevin Williamson.

  • DamC

    FOX could premiere 1 drama in Fall and 2 in midseason if they use Wednesday’s post Idol slot in January and February (instead of wasting it with a reality show like they did this season with Mobbed). The 6-7 first episodes of this drama could be on this slot before Idol is extended to two hours for the live shows. And then, the last 5-6 episodes could air on Thurdays while Glee goes on hiatus (’cause Glee will be on Thursdays next season. But that can work with any other show)

  • Tony

    FRINGE – 72 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 26 (+2)
    ALCATRAZ – 13 (-3)
    TOUCH – 21 (-2)

    “Go On….eat it! I Dare You!” – Penny/TBBT

  • tvfreak

    @Tony: Sorry, wrong network! (Your quote, that is.)

  • atlanta

    @Fake Me Out I have to agree with you. I was so annoyed at the way Bones fans were supposed to embrace and love this show, I was hyper critical of it. Unfortunately, my irritation was justified, it is just a bad show, imo.

  • Jared

    Final Predictions for FOX
    Cancelled:
    Alcatraz: This show has absolutely no buzz left, and FOX already “appeased” J.J. Abrams (as much as they care about things like that, which I imagine is very little) by renewing Fringe for a final season. It’s safe to assume Alcatraz is gone.

    The Finder: I think that the Finder has a much better chance to come back than many are giving it credit for here (maybe 30-40% because 1) FOX seems to like being in the Hart Hanson business, 2) Touch has fallen off to levels similar to what the Finder was pulling before it left Thursdays, 3) Fox may want to keep a scripted presence on Fridays after Fringe leaves the air, rather than surrendering the night to Gordon Ramsay. I wouldn’t be absolutely shocked by a short order. Having said all that, I still think that the Finder will be cancelled. Fox needs a new drama hit, and it makes more sense to find one by picking up at least 3 drama pilots, rather than trying to save a marginal performer like the Finder.

    Napolean Dynamite: Decent ratings or not, this show has come and gone and no one seems to miss it. Animated shows notoriously need long lead times to get episodes ready, and the fact that no one’s heard a peep about this show going back into production means it’s either coming back in the spring or it’s not coming back at all. I strongly suspect the latter.

    Renewed:
    Bob’s Burgers: As many have noted, this show will be on Fox’s fall schedule regardless, because it still has episodes left over from its Season 2 order. An additional renewal is a shakier prospect, but I still bet that it happens. The show’s done well enough.

    Touch: This is more of a face-saving renewal than anything else. Fox has invested too much in Kiefer Sutherland, Tim Kring, and the huge international rollout this show received to give up on it this soon. That being said, I feel fairly confident that the renewal will only be for 13 episodes (at least initially) and that the show could be bound for the Friday ‘Death Slot’ after Fringe finishes up its run.

  • KJ Styles

    The only one of these shows that will be renewed is Touch. If they cancel it, then Fox will only have two and a half returning dramas (I count Glee as a dramedy, and Fringe as half a drama because it’s a terrible show with terrible ratings and it’ll only get 13 episodes for it’s final season).

    It wouldn’t make sense for them to cancel Touch being that it’s above average rated and Fox’s track record for long running scripted shows as of late has been poor. With House ending and Alcatraz getting cancelled, I doubt I’ll watch FOX at all next season for anything other than sports.

    If Seth’s Flintstones debuts in the fall (which is likely) then Bob’s Burgers is a goner.

  • Rebecca

    @KJ Styles
    Flintstones was shelved….not proceeding for a long time. It won’t be on in the fall and it was announced a while ago. McFarlane is too busy.

  • Survivor Fan

    Chance FOX loses to CBS next year: 90%

    -Lowering Idol (2’s for resuls next year?)
    – CBS has Super Bowl
    – CBS has Primetime Conference Championship
    – FOX had the Conference Championship this year, and CBS still nearly pulled off the upset.

  • Ultima

    @DamC
    FOX could premiere 1 drama in Fall and 2 in midseason if they use Wednesday’s post Idol slot in January and February (instead of wasting it with a reality show like they did this season with Mobbed). The 6-7 first episodes of this drama could be on this slot before Idol is extended to two hours for the live shows. And then, the last 5-6 episodes could air on Thurdays while Glee goes on hiatus (’cause Glee will be on Thursdays next season. But that can work with any other show)

    There’s not much post-Idol time on Wednesday prior to April. The current format is 6 weeks pre-live, 1 week semis, 11 weeks finals, finale week. Of those six weeks, 2-3 will be two-hour shows. They only aired two episodes of Mobbed after Idol this season.

    The more likely scheduling solution is to leave Glee on Thursdays (9 fall epiosdes, 5 after Idol possibly with a two-night two-hour winter finale to hit 15 eps before hiatus), then bring it back on Wednesdays in April. That leaves 11 weeks open on Thursday for a drama (either the back-11 for the fall drama or Bones or a new drama with a two-hour finale the final Monday).

  • Ultima

    @Survivor Fan
    Chance FOX loses to CBS next year: 90%

    I’d say 99%. About the only way FOX beats CBS next season is if CBS has a complete meltdown with new shows, FOX fires off hits left and right, and Britney doubles The X Factor’s ratings.

    I don’t think Idol will be pulling 2s though, the 30% year-to-year drop may be a one-time thing.

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