FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Chance FOX loses to CBS next year: 90%

    -Lowering Idol (2?s for resuls next year?)
    - CBS has Super Bowl
    - CBS has Primetime Conference Championship
    - FOX had the Conference Championship this year, and CBS still nearly pulled off the upset.”

    You’re being conservative at 90%.

    My first headline back from the summer: “CBS To Win Adults 18-49 Ratings Crown For 2012-13 Season”.

    TVBTN, stirring the pot, early if needed, since 2007. ;)

  • Brian

    I see Touch getting renewed!

  • MJDB

    Predictions:

    The Finder-10%
    Alcatraz-10%
    Napoleon Dynamite-55%
    Touch-55%
    Bob’s Burgers-65%

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    My first headline back from the summer: “CBS To Win Adults 18-49 Ratings Crown For 2012-13 Season”

    I like it!

    By the way, any idea when the last time CBS was #1 in 18-49 ratings? I’m guessing early 90s at the latest, but it’s hard to find anything but HH ratings from back then.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “By the way, any idea when the last time CBS was #1 in 18-49 ratings? I’m guessing early 90s at the latest, but it’s hard to find anything but HH ratings from back then.”

    No idea, but I’m 100% certain our CBS PR friends will be happy to tell me when I’m getting things together.

  • Sarah

    @Fake Me Out & @atlanta

    I totally agree with you and I was extremely PO’d when they did that. Plus, I hated the backdoor pilot so there was no way I was going to watch it anyway.

  • Mark

    MONDAY:
    8pm – Bones
    9pm – Untitled Berman Wright

    TUESDAY:
    8pm – Raising Hope
    8:30pm – Rebounding
    9pm – New Girl
    9:30pm – Untitled Mindy Kaling

    WEDNESDAY:
    8pm – The X Factor
    9:30pm – The Goodwin Games

    THURSDAY:
    8pm – The X Factor
    9pm – Glee

    FRIDAY:
    8pm – Kitchen Nightmares
    9pm – Fringe

    MIDSEASON:
    Ned Fox is My Manny
    Untitled Karyn Usher
    Untitled Kevin Williamson

  • MikeInCanada

    I watched Alcatraz and don’t care about it not being renewed but think it is too bad that they ended it on a cliff hanger.

    I really liked the finder as quirky entertaining Simon and Simon type of show that you do not see much of any more. Too bad.

  • Liz

    @Sarah

    Have they said the time?

    You mean what time is the upfront presentation? It’s in the afternoon, maybe 2pm Eastern? But the schedule is usually released no later than 8:30am Eastern.

  • Justin121

    Bob’s Burgers: Don’t care
    Napoleon Dynamite: Don’t care
    Touch: Renewed 65%

    FOX top shows are getting 2.1s and 2.2s. Touch stays put.

  • tvfreak

    @Ultima: I hope Idol starts to fall to 2′s, maybe even before it ends this season, so Fox can finally start weaning itself off that droning-competition drug.

    @Bill: I hope your prediction comes true.

    FRINGE – 75 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 23 (-3)
    ALCATRAZ – 11 (-2)
    TOUCH – 23 (+2)

    From Malcolm in the Middle episode 1.03 “Home Alone 4″ -
    [After cleaning up the house]
    Reese: It’s never been this clean before.
    Malcolm: Uh-oh. It’s too clean.
    Francis: You’re right. She’ll never buy it.
    [The boys start messing up the house]

  • Sammy01

    I live in hope The Finder will get a 13 ep order as filler if something completely fails next year, or to make a complete season with Fringe (26 weeks) next year.

    Though expecting it to be cancelled.

  • Ultima

    @tvfreak
    I hope Idol starts to fall to 2?s, maybe even before it ends this season

    This season? Yeah, that’s not going to happen. At least be realistic in your hate and hope for a series low 3.8 in the next two weeks…

    I expect it will average above 4.0 next season, which should be higher than The Voice, but I’m not sure it beats The X Factor; obviously it will be crushed by the top sitcoms.

    In any case, singing on FOX probably isn’t going anywhere anytime soon!

    I don’t watch, btw, I just like how much it irritates some people… ;)

  • Nick

    The Finder 8%
    Alcatraz 22%
    Napoleon Dynamite 37%
    Touch 67%
    Bob’s Burgers 51%

    FRINGE – 73 (-2)
    RAISING HOPE – 20 (-3)
    ALCATRAZ – 14 (+3)
    TOUCH – 25 (+2)

    “An actual map? I’m surprised they still sell those.”
    -Clea, Touch episode 1.06 “Lost and Found”

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Still looking at that absolutely absurd Fringe renewal at the bottom of a long list of cancellations…

    Fox is really going to regret that move, as they did with Dollhouse.

    I’d actually give Alcatraz a shot at renewal, despite the low rating here. It’s .93, not far from average. Except of course the show was dismally bad and I sincerely hope it is not renewed. Fox can at least partly redeem itself for the stupid Fringe renewal by not renewing Alcatraz, the OTHER crappy Abrams show…

    Now I see Abrams wants to do another idiotic premise show about our world where all forms of energy disappear… I can just see that going down even faster than Alcatraz… Beginning to think Abrams needs to be banned from television…

  • tvfreak

    @Ultima: Like me? ;) Yeah, or I could hope for a downward slide of the kind that Touch suffered in its first seven episodes.

    @Nick: Not to be rude, but I already used that Touch quote a couple of weeks ago.

    @Richard Steven Hack: Shame on you for mocking Alcatraz and JJ Abrams. You just pushed two of my Berserk Buttons for the price of one.

  • Jeff G

    I don’t think Napoleon Dynamite has a prayer. If they were going to renew it, they would have done so already due to the production time it would need. They can put off the decision on Bob’s Burgers. It has another 13 episodes, so it will be on the 2012-2013 schedule either way.

  • Robbie

    if fox was going to cancel alcatraz they would have by now. alcatraz started out ok but faded near the end. if alcatraz is renewed it will moved to a different night. cant compete against cbs comedies. touch will be renewed,and will be back in january for 13 episodes. dont care about bobs burgers, too many animated comedies on sunday night.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    I understand why someone might feel compelled to compare the situations between Terra Nova and Touch. But, even if they end up with the same fate, it won’t be because of each other.

    When Terra Nova didn’t receive a renewal BEFORE the end of it’s short run, it was 100% clear to me that it wasn’t coming back. By December, in order to have episodes ready for the fall, directors will already have been working with scripts that weren’t written based on a plot thread that a show runner never submitted. This is true for many reasons; most obvious of all was the fact that the much-hyped spring 2011 premier of the pilot never materialized (because of production problems, which is conceivable, even though there weren’t any unusually realistic or cinematic-quality effects in any of the episodes; my guess is they just gave up on that which they wanted to try). After the first three hours of any new show hold steady at a 2.5 rating, most networks will order additional episodes, if only to see whether or not it could hold up after a hiatus. Fox wasn’t interested in even giving it that much hope.

    The only conclusion one could reach is that Fox saw the show as too burdensome for its cost, even though they say publicly that it was profitable. Let’s face the fact that, even with considerable stretches of good entertainment, it wasn’t breaking any of the ground it was intended to and included far too many actors who weren’t giving anything that could be called a “performance.” I’m pretty sure even the biggest fans were aware of these problems, which fanboy blogging critics who started out loving the show were happy to note. On top of that, keeping it local, it isn’t like there was the sort of concern around here that we saw with other genre shows like Lost, Chuck, Fringe, V, The Sarah Connor Chronicles or even the very short-lived The Cape.

    Sure, some might have convinced themselves that, with a little retooling, Terra Nova could be ready for a spring return, but that would have meant more than an entire calendar year – likely 15 or 16 months, in fact – would pass between the first season’s finale and the second’s debut. Such a long break will kill most prime time broadcast shows, whether or not they’re good. But let’s say that happened, it would mean that between 20 and 23 episodes will have been produced in two seasons, which would have put the very expensive show on an eight or nine-year track heading to get to syndication, which would have been the only reason for Fox (as the TN’s production company and airing network) to continue. So, it was doomed. The only reason fans have to be upset about its cancelation was that it took eleven weeks to announce despite the fact that it was so clearly not returning to Fox.

    As for Touch, its ratings may have faltered, but its late debut, by its very nature, gives it more hope. It was getting decent enough ratings through the first six episodes, around which point Fox execs were likely well into their decision-making process (the exact ratings of these episodes follow: 3.9, 3.3, 2.7, 2.3, 2.3 and 2.1). Also, the fact that it showed up after a few hours of programming were already cleared doesn’t hurt. But the final, and probably most important, fact is that Touch is the highest-performing drama on the network (unless you count Glee, which you can do only if you are trying to bolster your view or find holes in mine; face it, though… Glee is a comedy, as its Emmy and Globe nominations – and wins – prove; I suspect it’s fair to compare them in regard to their length, though).

    Does this mean I think it will be renewed? No. I’m on the fence about it. But I do think it looks about 65-70% likely to return. If Fox’s pilot development is phenomenal, this is less likely. But, speaking of development, it has one other – potential – thing going for it: the “save the rookie drama” phenomenon. I don’t really believe in this as much as most people do. (If it is real for the reasons that so many presume, it’ll play even more into this year, since none were saved last year; in a world where saving face actually matters, what network would want to have two years with a 100% failure rate in new drama production?)

    Anyway, Terra Nova has been gone since December and Touch, which premiered after Terra Nova’s cancelation, will air right up until Fox’s upfronts. So, they really have nothing to do with each other. (But I did enjoy venting about them, not having said much about either during the season; herein lies pretty much all I would and could have to say about both, which I saved until now rather than discussing them every week – or even every day – as I’ve done in past seasons.)

  • alcatrazcrazylover

    please dont cancel alcatraz is the best program i have ever seen, you cant let me withouth knowing whats going to happen next … alcatraz is the best show you guys have ever made i wish that the 1 season continues, you left us with many questions and we need answers …

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