FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • forg

    Fox will win the season yet again in the demo but it doesn’t hide the fact how lackluster the season they had with a lot of their shows struggling. American Idol is down but it was still strong enough to boost Fox’s overall ratings and as much X Factor US was not the ratings powerhouse it was expected to be but without the 3 hours of regular solid ratings X Factor gave Fox last fall, Fox’s season average will be even lower and CBS could have overtaken them.

    Anyway, I say Touch has the only shot for renewal in this line up. But it’s low rated as well and it had the American Idol lead in at that, so potential for growth seems slim at this point.

  • Erica

    I’m really hoping Napoleon Dynamite gets renewed. It’s the only Fox animated comedy I can stand.

  • Dahne

    @Richard Steven Hack – I’m not a big fan of JJ Abrams either, but Revolution also has Kripke and based on Abrams track record I would say Kripke has more to do with Revolution than Abrams ever had. I would expect a lot of Supernatural fans to give Revolution a decent shot. Well, provided it’s not scheduled on Friday as well.

  • Jim

    Just my opinion but FOX has been a one show network for years. Yes, they have won the 18-49 crown and had many highly rated hits but it has all rested on shows that have been supported by following American Idol or being advertised during AI. Now that AI is showing its age and vulnerability, the surrounding shows are not getting the ratings they used to. I know they have had several hits in the past years including the Sunday Animation Domination but nothing on their schedule is really dominating now. The Sunday cartoons feel tired to me and even AI is losing its time slot on Thursday. FOX will continue to be a threat considering they are still to me a “netlet” and do not program the 10pm hour which has other networks struggling. However, I think we see that one show cannot sustain an entire network. They do not have the advertising power they used to have when AI was getting much higher ratings. It reminds me of the time NBC didn’t want to lose Friends because they saw their entire lineup tanking if they did. Not an expert, just my opinion.

  • doug

    I still think if you move alcatraz to Friday it will catch on. It is something different .

  • @scl2

    In FOX, everything’s possible

    The Finder 5%
    Alcatraz 15%
    Napoleon Dynamite 50%
    Touch 55%
    Bob’s Burgers 50%

  • Patrick G.

    I still say FOX made a big mistake canceling “Terra Nova.” It’s ratings held up decently, albeit unstratospherically. With “FRINGE” going into its final 13-episode season, “Glee” will be the only FOX show left that I watch thereafter. At least you’ve freed up more time in my life, FOX ;)

  • phillip

    Even Bones has lost viewers….. seems like the golden touch of Hart and
    company is gone.

  • Pete

    “Fox is expected to pick up three or four comedies and at least three dramas.”
    http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118053679?refCatId=14

    Fox will only have 1 hour timeslot for new dramas next season. If at least three dramas are to be ordered, there will be no place for “The Finder” and “Alcatraz” to come back.

    Although there will be a vacant timeslot after Fringe is ended, I don’t think Fox will premiere their new dramas on Fridays. It’s more likely that Touch will end up there.

  • Riff Rafferty

    The 4 animated shows marked with a * are on the schedule next season but not yet formally renewed for another cycle during this season as far as I’ve heard. Not all of them are going to be returning beyond the 2012-2013 season. FOX is looking for replacements.

    AMERICAN IDOL – 100% – Remember when this show used to have the other networks shaking in fear? It’s safe to come out, guys, the storm has passed.
    FAMILY GUY * – 100% – More communist propaganda coming your way, America haters.
    COPS – 95% – Another season of morons on parade expected.
    BOB’S BURGERS * – 80% – Not doing well but Reilly reportedly loves it. For once, he has good taste.
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW * – 75% – They might as well take it over the 100 episode mark. But please make the 5th season the last one. This show has no fans and no reason for existing.
    THE FINDER – 75% – The best new show FOX put on this season and the only one to show growth in Weeks 2 and 3. And the only one that I’m willing to help them grow. Besides, something has to help prop up their little pet.
    TOUCH – 65% – It lost its grip on the ratings but may be feeling its way around primetime for another 13 next season because of international — although it’s sure not making FOX’s decision an easy one. Personally? I tired of it real quick.
    AMERICAN DAD * – 55% – Hopefully, “The Flintstones” getting the backburner will help snag this, the only watchable MacFarlane show, an 8th and final cycle.
    NAPOLEON DYNAMITE – 25% – This was the best performer of the 3 toons FOX tried in the time slot and deserves another run based strictly on that. Not to mention Rough Draft’s animation was a feast for the eyes. But Reilly sometimes doesn’t care about things like, you know, ratings or profit margins. Also, he reportedly only ordered it because of uncertainty regarding the why-won’t-it-just-die-already “The Simpsons.” I’m not hearing good things.
    MOBBED – 10% – Lobbed… in the trash.
    I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER – 0% – FOX Hates Hating My Teenage Daughter
    BREAKING IN – 0% – Gee, guys, guess you should have spent less time shilling this thing all over Deadline under the guise of irritating fanboys and more time watching ’80s movies for things to quote.
    ALCATRAZ – 0% – That’s what they get for not picking up “Rikers” instead. (But seriously, FOX, you canned both “Lie to Me” and “The Chicago Code.” For THIS. Don’t be stupid again this year, mm’kay?)

  • Carigis

    Alcatraz needs to die.. It was made to look like a sci fi show but was really just a lame chase of the week show with numerous plot holes and poor research and casting. They also used the whole team member gets killed to be later resurrected by blood gimmick twice in one season. Ok technically it would have been beginning of next season.. I hope they don’t pair it with fringe…

    Maybe they will announce fringe gets an extended final season.. Ok I guess that’s pushing it.

  • gb

    no more headline for FRINGE!! it’s now boring

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Patrick

    Fox’s decision to cancel Terra Nova may have been a mistake, indeed. But it was clearly in the stars when, as I detailed earlier, it wasn’t given an extended order after its first few episodes. Sure, it had a story to tell, but Fox didn’t want to pick up the tab AND lose a spot on its crowded schedule.

    I believe that Terra Nova was never going to be renewed from the moment the spring preview was lost and that Fox aired its 11-episode (or 12, if you count the first airing as two) order to honor contractual agreements. If the ratings were lower, they would have canceled it at the first chance, but it likely met its thresholds until the eighth episode or so, when removing it from the schedule would have caused more harm than good.

    All that said, I do wish that the audience were given closure. Since Fox has been so kind to genre viewers these past few years, though, I don’t think they need to answer for their decisions. Fringe may be the best show in the history of television, but its ratings have not warranted continuing since the middle of the second season or so. The three free passes it has given the producers and writers to finish the story are unprecedented and, as such, Fox should be commended by genre fans.

    You might not have much more to watch than Glee, but Fox will launch more programs in the future that appeal to you and I’m sure that you will tune in, since they will have, as a network, been the only players since ABC’s management of Lost, to see something through to its natural conclusion. (I just hope that Fringe retires with an appropriately silly-free conclusion with no open questions unless an actual film deal has already been announced.)

  • Tabitha

    The Finder 5%
    Alcatraz 10%
    Napoleon Dynamite 25%
    Touch 50%
    Bob’s Burgers 60%

  • Sarah

    @Liz

    “You mean what time is the upfront presentation? It’s in the afternoon, maybe 2pm Eastern? But the schedule is usually released no later than 8:30am Eastern.”

    Okay, thanks. :)

  • Sarah

    @phillip

    “Even Bones has lost viewers….. seems like the golden touch of Hart and
    company is gone.”

    I personally think it has more to do with the move, but HH & Co. definitely have something to do with it, especially HH. IMO.

  • Judas The Nightmare

    The Finder 50% chance of getting renewed, just because of Hart Hanson and FOX are on good terms with each other. I love The Finder!

  • Brian

    Touch 75 percent…will get another chance with Kiefer
    Bob’s Burgers/Napoleon Dynamite 50 percent…can only see one renewed max, probably for spring.
    Alcatraz 20 percent…pretty unlikely.
    Finder 0 percent…the curse of Geoff Stults continues.

  • Babs

    Touch is the best new show of the second half of the season for all networks!! Yea for Fringe..love that show!!

  • Liz

    FRINGE – 78 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 21 (-2)
    ALCATRAZ – 8 (-3)
    TOUCH – 25 (+2)

    Looks Like Alcatraz is on the way out :)

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