FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Rebecca

    FRINGE – 71 (-2)
    RAISING HOPE – 23 (+3)
    ALCATRAZ – 16 (+2)
    TOUCH – 22 (-3)

    quote from The X Files [7.12]:
    Sgt Duthie: With all due respect what the *bleep* are you talking about?
    Mulder: I’m talking about preventing this man from becoming a danger to himself and to others.
    Sgt Duthie: Can I see your badge again?
    Scully: [smiling sweetly] Agent Mulder, can we have a word a second?
    Mulder: Excuse me.
    Mulder: What is it?
    Scully: “What is it”? Mulder, have you noticed that we’re on television?
    Mulder: I don’t think it’s live television, Scully. She just said *bleep*.

  • Rebecca

    @Liz and I kind of voted at the same time and I didn’t see her vote in time, so making the adjustments now (I had gone off @Nick’s vote):

    FRINGE – 74
    RAISING HOPE – 21
    ALCATRAZ – 13
    TOUCH – 24

    I hope that’s right. And I do hope Alcatraz returns. I know a few people in England who’ve been watching and are hooked (they’ve seen up through episode #9 or #10 now). There’s a chance Rebecca can be jump-started back to life – they didn’t really “call” the time of death at the end (last scene). Hope that’s not a spoiler…everyone should have seen the last episode by now.

  • Rebecca

    @Liz
    Looks like you didn’t see Nick’s vote. That’s okay, though. The adjustments I just made include his vote and yours anyway.

  • Carigis

    @phillip.. Maybe it was the fact bones was pregnant and huge most of the season.. And baby drama became a big part of the show…

  • Tony

    FRINGE – 77 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 23 (+2)
    ALCATRAZ – 10 (-3)
    TOUCH – 22 (-2)

  • Linda

    When will Fox learn that many of us simply do not invest our time in their new shows until after a second season. They do not bother to let an audience develop.

  • David Howell

    The Finder: 0% (Friday burnoff was a de facto cancellation, and with Fringe renewed there’s now no chance whatsoever)
    Alcatraz: 1% (at least it never aired on Friday)
    Napoleon Dynamite: 10% (and that only because of Flintstones being held up)
    Touch: 50% (heads they give it a season 2 to save face, tails they realise they could do better going unscripted for yet another hour)
    Bob’s Burgers: 99% that season 2.5 airs in the fall, 75% that the decision on an additional episode order is deferred.

  • Greg

    RENEWED
    Bob’s Burgers
    Touch

    CANCELED
    Alcatraz
    The Finder
    Napoleon Dynamite

  • davie

    Only shows I watch on FOX are Fringe & Family Guy so these are just guesses.

    Finder-Canceled
    Alcatraz-Canceled
    Touch-Renewed 13 with option for back 9
    Bobs Burgers-Renewed for 13
    Napoleon Dynamite-Renewed for 13

  • Dennis

    FRINGE – 80 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 21 (-2)
    ALCATRAZ – 17 (-3)
    TOUCH – 24 (+2)

  • Aaron

    Fox’s Schedule (Fall)
    *with The X-Factor’s ratings, I don’t see Fox doing 2-hour shows.

    Sunday
    7:00 – The Simpsons (R)
    7:30 – American Dad
    8:00 – The Simpsons
    8:30 – Bob’s Burgers
    9:00 – Family Guy
    9:30 – The Cleveland Show

    Monday
    8:00 – Bones
    9:00 – The Mob Doctor

    Tuesday
    8:00 – Raising Hope
    8:30 – Goodwin Games / Ben & Kate
    9:00 – New Girl
    9:30 – It’s Messy

    Wednesday
    8:00 – The X Factor
    9:00 – Glee

    Thursday
    8:00 – The X Factor
    9:00 – Mastermind

    Friday
    8:00 – Touch
    9:00 – Fringe

  • Nick

    @tvfreak,
    Well, all I can say is that we have the same taste in quotes ;-)

    FRINGE – 78 (-2)
    RAISING HOPE – 18 (-3)
    ALCATRAZ – 20 (+3)
    TOUCH – 26 (+2)

    • “Guess it’s time for Plan B.” “What is Plan B?” “I have absolutely no idea!”
    -Girls (I forgot their names sorry :-( )Touch episode 3.05 “Entanglement”

  • karina

    Keep the finder we love it,my grandkids can watch it.

  • K-Fed

    FRINGE – 81 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 16 (-2)
    ALCATRAZ – 17 (-3)
    TOUCH – 28 (+2)

  • No One

    I don’t care about Napoleon Dynamite at this point. It disappointed me a little but was still kind of funny. It might be renewed since FOX renewed Bob’s Burgers for Season 2 even though it started with 9mil and ended with 4mil. ND did the same except it ended with 3mil. I don’t care about that live-action crap

    Future Sunday Night Schedule (Hopefully)
    7:30 – The Flintstones
    8:00 – The Simpsons (Won’t be cancelled after Season 25, trust me)
    8:30 – Bob’s Burgers (Hopefully, the best show won’t be cancelled)
    9:00 – Family Guy (Obviously will live as long as TS)
    9:30 – The Cleveland Show (Unless the ratings kills it, plus it sucks)

    American Dad! is not coming back for a 9th season (8th production cycle) unfortunately. Well, it’s not official but it doesn’t look good for it. God, I seriously wish The Cleveland Show was just never, ever made.

  • tvfreak

    AAAAAAUUUUUGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!! My hopes for Fringecatraz Fridays have been dashed! It’s doubly bad for me due to being not only an Abrams show but also one set in SF. :( Hopefully Abrams will make up for this with some super-success a la Lost with Revolution next season.

    And, hopefully the next show to take place in SF will not make the egregious mistake of showing a Bay Area constantly plagued with thunderstorms. ;)

    But at least I can rest easy knowing Touch has been renewed and Fox has picked up Masterminds! :D

    FRINGE – 84 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 14 (-2)
    ALCATRAZ – 14 (-3)
    TOUCH – 30 (+2)

    “We’re never gonna really find out what’s going on here, are we?”
    -Doc Soto, from Alcatraz episode 1.11 “Webb Porter” (sadly poignant, this quote is.)

  • Rebecca

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/05/09/touch-renewed-for-a-second-season-by-fox-alcatraz-canceled/133278/comment-page-3/#comment-1170670

    Nice for Touch. Too bad for Alcatraz. I’m not surprised it’s not returning, but I had hoped it would.

  • One

    I guess Fox is still debating the upside/downside of Napoleon Dynamite vs. Bob’s Burgers…

    Here’s a hint: if it’s a funny show vs. one remembered for the most hideous case of animated zits ever, go w/ the funny one…

  • Pete

    Possible schedule

    Monday
    8pm – Bones
    9pm – Mob Doctor (Fall) / The Following (Midseason) / one more new drama(?) OR Touch (Spring)

    Tuesday
    8pm – Raising Hope
    8:30pm – Ben & Kate
    9pm – New Girl
    9:30pm – It’s Messy

    Wednesday
    8pm – The X Factor / American Idol

    Thursday
    8pm – The X Factor / American Idol
    9pm – Glee

    Friday
    8pm – Kitchen Nightmare
    9pm – Fringe (Fall) / Hotel Hell OR Touch (midseason)

    Sunday
    7:30pm – The Cleveland Show
    8pm – The Simpsons
    8:30pm – Bob’s Burgers
    9pm – Family Guy
    9:30pm – American Idol

    Mid-season replacement: The Goodwin Games

  • Pete

    *Edit 9:30pm – American Dad

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