Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| The Finder | 15% | 15% |
| Alcatraz | 15% | 15% |
| Napoleon Dynamite | 40% | 40% |
| Touch | 55% | 60% |
| Bob's Burgers | 60% | 60% |
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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.
To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Fringe (F) | renewed | 0.49 |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter* | canceled | 0.61 |
| Breaking In* | canceled | 0.64 |
| The Cleveland Show | renewed | 0.70 |
| Allen Gregory * | canceled | 0.72 |
| The Finder (some F) |  |
0.81 |
| Raising Hope | renewed | 0.88 |
| Bob's Burgers |  |
0.88 |
| Terra Nova * | canceled | 0.90 |
| Alcatraz* | |
0.93 |
| American Dad | renewed | 1.00 |
| Bones | renewed | 1.05 |
| Napoleon Dynamite* | |
1.06 |
| House | final season | 1.10 |
| Touch | |
1.19 |
| The Simpsons | renewed | 1.21 |
| New Girl | renewed | 1.34 |
| Glee | renewed | 1.35 |
| Family Guy | renewed | 1.39 |
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
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- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012 - - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
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- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012 -
- certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
FRINGE – 71 (-2)
RAISING HOPE – 23 (+3)
ALCATRAZ – 16 (+2)
TOUCH – 22 (-3)
quote from The X Files [7.12]:
Sgt Duthie: With all due respect what the *bleep* are you talking about?
Mulder: I’m talking about preventing this man from becoming a danger to himself and to others.
Sgt Duthie: Can I see your badge again?
Scully: [smiling sweetly] Agent Mulder, can we have a word a second?
Mulder: Excuse me.
Mulder: What is it?
Scully: “What is it”? Mulder, have you noticed that we’re on television?
Mulder: I don’t think it’s live television, Scully. She just said *bleep*.
@Liz and I kind of voted at the same time and I didn’t see her vote in time, so making the adjustments now (I had gone off @Nick’s vote):
FRINGE – 74
RAISING HOPE – 21
ALCATRAZ – 13
TOUCH – 24
I hope that’s right. And I do hope Alcatraz returns. I know a few people in England who’ve been watching and are hooked (they’ve seen up through episode #9 or #10 now). There’s a chance Rebecca can be jump-started back to life – they didn’t really “call” the time of death at the end (last scene). Hope that’s not a spoiler…everyone should have seen the last episode by now.
@Liz
Looks like you didn’t see Nick’s vote. That’s okay, though. The adjustments I just made include his vote and yours anyway.
@phillip.. Maybe it was the fact bones was pregnant and huge most of the season.. And baby drama became a big part of the show…
FRINGE – 77 (+3)
RAISING HOPE – 23 (+2)
ALCATRAZ – 10 (-3)
TOUCH – 22 (-2)
When will Fox learn that many of us simply do not invest our time in their new shows until after a second season. They do not bother to let an audience develop.
The Finder: 0% (Friday burnoff was a de facto cancellation, and with Fringe renewed there’s now no chance whatsoever)
Alcatraz: 1% (at least it never aired on Friday)
Napoleon Dynamite: 10% (and that only because of Flintstones being held up)
Touch: 50% (heads they give it a season 2 to save face, tails they realise they could do better going unscripted for yet another hour)
Bob’s Burgers: 99% that season 2.5 airs in the fall, 75% that the decision on an additional episode order is deferred.
RENEWED
Bob’s Burgers
Touch
CANCELED
Alcatraz
The Finder
Napoleon Dynamite
Only shows I watch on FOX are Fringe & Family Guy so these are just guesses.
Finder-Canceled
Alcatraz-Canceled
Touch-Renewed 13 with option for back 9
Bobs Burgers-Renewed for 13
Napoleon Dynamite-Renewed for 13
FRINGE – 80 (+3)
RAISING HOPE – 21 (-2)
ALCATRAZ – 17 (-3)
TOUCH – 24 (+2)
Fox’s Schedule (Fall)
*with The X-Factor’s ratings, I don’t see Fox doing 2-hour shows.
Sunday
7:00 – The Simpsons (R)
7:30 – American Dad
8:00 – The Simpsons
8:30 – Bob’s Burgers
9:00 – Family Guy
9:30 – The Cleveland Show
Monday
8:00 – Bones
9:00 – The Mob Doctor
Tuesday
8:00 – Raising Hope
8:30 – Goodwin Games / Ben & Kate
9:00 – New Girl
9:30 – It’s Messy
Wednesday
8:00 – The X Factor
9:00 – Glee
Thursday
8:00 – The X Factor
9:00 – Mastermind
Friday
8:00 – Touch
9:00 – Fringe
@tvfreak,
Well, all I can say is that we have the same taste in quotes
FRINGE – 78 (-2)
RAISING HOPE – 18 (-3)
ALCATRAZ – 20 (+3)
TOUCH – 26 (+2)
• “Guess it’s time for Plan B.” “What is Plan B?” “I have absolutely no idea!”
)Touch episode 3.05 “Entanglement”
-Girls (I forgot their names sorry
Keep the finder we love it,my grandkids can watch it.
FRINGE – 81 (+3)
RAISING HOPE – 16 (-2)
ALCATRAZ – 17 (-3)
TOUCH – 28 (+2)
I don’t care about Napoleon Dynamite at this point. It disappointed me a little but was still kind of funny. It might be renewed since FOX renewed Bob’s Burgers for Season 2 even though it started with 9mil and ended with 4mil. ND did the same except it ended with 3mil. I don’t care about that live-action crap
Future Sunday Night Schedule (Hopefully)
7:30 – The Flintstones
8:00 – The Simpsons (Won’t be cancelled after Season 25, trust me)
8:30 – Bob’s Burgers (Hopefully, the best show won’t be cancelled)
9:00 – Family Guy (Obviously will live as long as TS)
9:30 – The Cleveland Show (Unless the ratings kills it, plus it sucks)
American Dad! is not coming back for a 9th season (8th production cycle) unfortunately. Well, it’s not official but it doesn’t look good for it. God, I seriously wish The Cleveland Show was just never, ever made.
AAAAAAUUUUUGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!! My hopes for Fringecatraz Fridays have been dashed! It’s doubly bad for me due to being not only an Abrams show but also one set in SF.
Hopefully Abrams will make up for this with some super-success a la Lost with Revolution next season.
And, hopefully the next show to take place in SF will not make the egregious mistake of showing a Bay Area constantly plagued with thunderstorms.
But at least I can rest easy knowing Touch has been renewed and Fox has picked up Masterminds!
FRINGE – 84 (+3)
RAISING HOPE – 14 (-2)
ALCATRAZ – 14 (-3)
TOUCH – 30 (+2)
“We’re never gonna really find out what’s going on here, are we?”
-Doc Soto, from Alcatraz episode 1.11 “Webb Porter” (sadly poignant, this quote is.)
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/05/09/touch-renewed-for-a-second-season-by-fox-alcatraz-canceled/133278/comment-page-3/#comment-1170670
Nice for Touch. Too bad for Alcatraz. I’m not surprised it’s not returning, but I had hoped it would.
I guess Fox is still debating the upside/downside of Napoleon Dynamite vs. Bob’s Burgers…
Here’s a hint: if it’s a funny show vs. one remembered for the most hideous case of animated zits ever, go w/ the funny one…
Possible schedule
Monday
8pm – Bones
9pm – Mob Doctor (Fall) / The Following (Midseason) / one more new drama(?) OR Touch (Spring)
Tuesday
8pm – Raising Hope
8:30pm – Ben & Kate
9pm – New Girl
9:30pm – It’s Messy
Wednesday
8pm – The X Factor / American Idol
Thursday
8pm – The X Factor / American Idol
9pm – Glee
Friday
8pm – Kitchen Nightmare
9pm – Fringe (Fall) / Hotel Hell OR Touch (midseason)
Sunday
7:30pm – The Cleveland Show
8pm – The Simpsons
8:30pm – Bob’s Burgers
9pm – Family Guy
9:30pm – American Idol
Mid-season replacement: The Goodwin Games
*Edit 9:30pm – American Dad