FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • sharp

    Aww The Finder is fox’s best new show!

  • josh

    Family guy is painfully unfunny lately. It’s clearly that they are running out of ideas , AD still rocks

  • Liz

    FRINGE – 87 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 16 (+2)
    ALCATRAZ – 11 (-3)
    TOUCH – 28 (+2)

  • ToXiX

    I can guarantee that Napoleon Dynamite will not get renewed over Bobs Burgers.

  • marie

    I like finder

  • marie

    I like alcatraz

  • marie

    Why do they keep some of the stupidest shows and take off the good ones

  • Rebecca

    @Liz meant -2 from Touch but the math is right anyway. My turn:

    FRINGE – 89 (+2)
    RAISING HOPE – 19 (+3)
    ALCATRAZ – 8 (-3)
    TOUCH – 26 (-2)

    quote from Glee [3.19]:
    Sue: Oh Becky, commercials aren’t real life. Advertisers are manipulative alcoholics who use images to play on our emotions. Haven’t you seen “Mad Men”?
    Becky: No.
    Sue: Neither have I.

  • Tony

    No point keeping Alcatraz in the game anymore….

    FRINGE – 92 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 21 (+2)
    ALCATRAZ – 5 (-3)
    TOUCH – 24 (-2)

  • Jeff

    I hate Bob’s Burgers! Please renew The Cleveland Show instead

  • Ryan

    Finder was great but potential gets you nothing on Fox, see Firefly and the rebranded Breaking In. Television is getting so bad that I have gone back to reading more. Dang tv executives making me use the organ in my body they can’t seem too. I love how shows get cancelled without even a shot, if these were the decisions from the 90′s I wouldnt have seen anything. Its called developing a base not playing a show for two seasons that sux while you wait for simon cowell or some over the hill songtress, rocknroller or whoever judges the crap they put it on to return.

  • tvfreak

    FRINGE – 95 (+3) (Fast approaching the Victors’ Village here…)
    RAISING HOPE – 19 (-2)
    ALCATRAZ – 2 (-3) (Sigh…)
    TOUCH – 26 (+2)

    From Raising Hope episode 1.21 “Baby Monitor” -
    Virginia: Burt, why are you infusiating yourself in other people’s lives?
    Burt: I like this guy. He reminds me of me. We both have brown hair and hate museums.

  • akakak

    fringe get renew …. which is … painful to watch .. but other good show get cancel … because it get better rating than fringe and people love it … and also … it`s FOX …

  • akakak

    Touch get renew
    alcatraz canceled and finder canceles ..

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/10/alcatraz-the-finder-canceled_n_1505686.html

  • Hustis Harper

    FRINGE – 98 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 17 (-2)
    ALCATRAZ R.I.P.
    TOUCH – 28 (+2)

  • kale

    damn…Finder was actually good.

  • Papa Rotzzi

    I have just got to the spot where I will not watch anything scripted on Fox. Seems like anything that my wife and I like ends up getting cancelled.

  • Dennis

    FRINGE – 100 (+2) :) :) :)
    RAISING HOPE – 20 (+3)
    TOUCH – 25 (-3)

  • Rebecca

    @tvfreak
    Wait…with three shows left in the game doesn’t the voting change now? Does it go to just +3 and -3? If so, then that would happen between between the votes of @Hustis Harper and @Dennis? Fringe will still win, it just might be delayed or happen later in the day. Or let the last vote stand and it would be down to RH vs. Touch to face off against Fringe in the Winners Circle next.

  • Dennis

    @Rebecca & TvFreak

    Ya, I wasn’t sure about the voting with 3 left… if it is just + or – 3 my vote is

    FRINGE – 100 (+3)
    RAISING HOPE – 17
    TOUCH – 25 (-3)

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