Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
| Program | Bill | Robert |
| The Finder | 15% | 15% |
| Alcatraz | 15% | 15% |
| Napoleon Dynamite | 40% | 40% |
| Touch | 55% | 60% |
| Bob's Burgers | 60% | 60% |
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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.
To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Fringe (F) | renewed | 0.49 |
| I Hate My Teenage Daughter* | canceled | 0.61 |
| Breaking In* | canceled | 0.64 |
| The Cleveland Show | renewed | 0.70 |
| Allen Gregory * | canceled | 0.72 |
| The Finder (some F) |  |
0.81 |
| Raising Hope | renewed | 0.88 |
| Bob's Burgers |  |
0.88 |
| Terra Nova * | canceled | 0.90 |
| Alcatraz* | |
0.93 |
| American Dad | renewed | 1.00 |
| Bones | renewed | 1.05 |
| Napoleon Dynamite* | |
1.06 |
| House | final season | 1.10 |
| Touch | |
1.19 |
| The Simpsons | renewed | 1.21 |
| New Girl | renewed | 1.34 |
| Glee | renewed | 1.35 |
| Family Guy | renewed | 1.39 |
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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
Notes:
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- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012 - - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
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- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012 -
- certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
@Dennis
I think that should cover it, thanks. So Fringe moves to the Victory/Victors Village and now awaits the winner between RH and Touch. So next voter goes off this and votes +3 and -3 until one show is down to zero:
RAISING HOPE – 17
TOUCH – 25
RAISING HOPE – 20 (+3)
TOUCH – 22 (-3)
quote from The X Files [6.6]:
[Mulder and Scully have just found a corpse.]
Scully: You know what’s weird?
Mulder: What?
Scully: Mulder, she’s wearing my outfit.
Mulder: How embarrassing.
RAISING HOPE – 23 (+3)
TOUCH – 19 (-3)
RAISING HOPE – 20 (-3)
TOUCH – 22 (+3)
What happened? I forget to vote 1 day and Alcatraz drops out??
Sad at its cancellation, but happy for Touch’s renewal.
@Nick: Well, considering it just got cancelled, really there’s not much point keeping it in the game anymore.
RAISING HOPE – 23 (+3)
TOUCH – 19 (-3) (I’m only rooting for RH so we can have some genre disparity in the Winners’ Circle.)
“‘Legal physical custody’ strikes fear in the heart of every social worker.”
-Clea Hopkins, from Touch episode 1.09 “Music of the Spheres”
Bring back Alcatraz!! My kids and I love that show!!!!
hope bobs get more esps and napoleon goes to the dump….
Cancel The Finder? Really? it’s one of the greatest shows on TV. A select group of people, through the Neilson Rating system, gave their opinions. Not everyone got to voice their opinion. I am sure there are more people out there that feel the way I do. Don’t cancel “The Finder”!!!
I give up on broadcast TV.
FOX cancels Alcatraz & Finder &
Terra Nova, the 3 new shows I watched besides
Fringe (thanks for the 5 yr rap up)
So they expect me to watch anything new??
I’ll watch touch with little hope for a renewal next year.
No new shows next year for any broadcast TV
station -AT ALL- why waste my time.
CABLE IS THE PLACE TO BE.
Television networks obviously prefer teen oriented or “reality” shows over shows that involve any type of thinking or character development.
Cancel the Awake, Finder and Alcatraz but renew shows like Wife Swap, yeah that makes sense. Apparently the sponsers are targeting idiots in hopes of getting more of their money.
The only good news is that I can do more reading. At least I can pick my own reading material.
i would have loved the finder to be renewed for another season just watched the finale last night and i hate where they left it i work fridays till 11pm but as soon as i get home i press play on my dvr i never miss an episode of the finder i am truly upset that it got cancelled
RAISING HOPE – 20 (-3)
TOUCH – 22 (+3)
I’m a little late today. And I’m seeing The Avengers in under 90 minutes.
RAISING HOPE – 23 (+3)
TOUCH – 19 (-3)
quote from The X Files [1.23]:
Scully: Okay, Mulder. But I’m warning you, if this is monkey pee, you’re on your own.
RAISING HOPE – 26 (+3)
TOUCH – 16 (-3)
RAISING HOPE – 29 (+3)
TOUCH – 13 (-3)
RAISING HOPE – 26 (-3)
TOUCH – 16 (+3)
RAISING HOPE – 29 (+3)
TOUCH – 13 (-3)
From 24 “Day 4: 2:00pm-3:00pm” -
Audrey: Look. We were fighting for our lives a few minutes ago, and if it hadn’t been for Tony, we would’ve been dead. Now I’ve been through a lot today, and I’m sure, when this is all over, your boss will understand.
Jen Slater: And if he doesn’t?
Audrey: [deadpan] I can have him killed.
Jen Slater: Knock yourself out.
RAISING HOPE – 26 (-3)
TOUCH – 16 (+3)
“I don’t think it’s your time to die.”
-Martin, Touch episode 1.02, “1+1=3″
Napoleon has been cancelled and Bobs Burgers has been renewed for season 3
Bring back Alcatraz one of the best J.J. Abrams shows since Alias and I just got my friends addicted right as the story was getting good. Wouldn’t it be cool if there really had been gold from the civil war on Alcatraz?