FOX: Final Guesses For 'Touch,' 'Alcatraz,' 'The Finder' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Touch has been renewed, The Finder and Alcatraz have been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
The Finder 15% 15%
Alcatraz 15% 15%
Napoleon Dynamite 40% 40%
Touch 55% 60%
Bob's Burgers 60% 60%

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No difference between my predictions and Robert's for Fox shows this season, the tiny difference in the Touch % was probably one of us (but who?) trying to "Price Is Right" the other one.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) renewed 0.49
I Hate My Teenage Daughter* canceled 0.61
Breaking In* canceled 0.64
The Cleveland Show renewed 0.70
Allen Gregory * canceled 0.72
The Finder (some F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Raising Hope renewed 0.88
Bob's Burgers :| :| :| 0.88
Terra Nova * canceled 0.90
Alcatraz* :cry: :cry: 0.93
American Dad renewed 1.00
Bones renewed 1.05
Napoleon Dynamite* :| :| :| 1.06
House final season 1.10
Touch :| :| :| 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.21
New Girl renewed 1.34
Glee renewed 1.35
Family Guy renewed 1.39

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did FOX's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Rebecca

    RAISING HOPE – 29 (+3)
    TOUCH – 13 (-3)

    quote from Touch [1.9]:
    Martin: Do you think Jake is one of these 36 [righteous ones]?
    Diamond guy (I don’t know his name): Yes. Unless he’s not. Who knows? Might just be hooey, some words written in an old book.

  • Buster

    Very upset ALCATRAZE is being cancelled!!! I know so many people that loved the show, please consider keeping it on!!!!

  • Nick

    RAISING HOPE – 26 (-3)
    TOUCH – 16 (+3)

    The exact same position the game was in when I last voted lol. I’m surprised Touch isn’t dominating with Fringe and Alcatraz out of the picture.

    By the way, I’m changing my pic, as this one’s not going to work now that Alcatraz is cancelled. :-(

  • tvfreak

    RAISING HOPE – 29 (+3)
    TOUCH – 13 (-3)

    From Dollhouse episode 1.00 “Echo” (unaired pilot) –
    [it’s lunchtime at Dollhouse]
    Echo: Good day.
    Sierra: I wasn’t certain where to sit. [sits down at the table] This smells very good.
    Echo: I think so, too. [takes a bite] I swam 30 laps today.
    Sierra: Good for you.
    Echo: I’m tired now.
    Sierra: It’s important to exercise. I try to be my best. [she tries to cut her food, haltingly, as if she forgot how exactly to do it]
    Echo: Are you? Are you your best?
    Sierra: I’m not sure how to know that.
    Echo: I think if you always try, that’s best. Right? [turns to Victor, who has just joined them]
    Victor: Every day is a chance to be better.

  • asdf

    The Finder really should stay, it is really amazing. i wish that terra nova could stay, but it is probably too late. and i know that it is way too late for this, but i really enjoyed watching human target

  • Rebecca

    @Nick, do they let you change your pic? You might have to use a different email address. I wasn’t able to change mine before.

    new vote

    RAISING HOPE – 32 (+3)
    TOUCH – 10 (-3)

    quote from The X Files [4.13]:
    Mulder: (Scully wants a desk; Mulder is trying to figure out how to fit it in their tiny shared office) We’ll put ‘em really close together, face to face…maybe we could play some BATTLESHIP!

  • tvfreak

    @Rebecca: They do let you change your pic. Have you noticed I change my pic about once a month?

  • Rebecca

    @tvfreak
    I’ll try again some time then.

  • Nick

    RAISING HOPE – 29 (-3)
    TOUCH – 13 (+3)

  • Nick

    Add quote to above^,

    “Numbers are constant, until they’re not.”
    -Jake, Touch episode 1.07, “Noosphere Rising”

  • Nick

    @tvfreak and Rebbeca,

    I’m gonna change my pic right now. See ya!
    lol

  • Hustis Harper

    RAISING HOPE – 32 (+3)
    TOUCH – 10 (-3)

  • Jen

    I think the Finder needs another chance I really enjoyed it move it to another time slot.

  • tom

    The Finder is a great Show Bring It Back

  • Alyssa

    I loved the finder fox is stupid

  • Alyssa

    Im eight

  • tvfreak

    RAISING HOPE – 35 (+3)
    TOUCH – 7 (-3)

    “This is the second time you’ve come to our gates and threatened the colony. There won’t be a third.”
    -Commander Taylor, from Terra Nova episode 1.05 “The Runaway”

  • Rebecca

    @tvfreak
    I still couldn’t see any way to change my pic with Gravatar without starting a brand new account. So I gave up, even after going with a different email address, since the user names I wanted were not available. Also, are we just going to end the games on the existing r/c index threads today or this week? I don’t think there will be new Tuesday threads today since we’re in upfronts week now and most renewals and cancellations have been announced (all except for RoE on CBS)…plus I know the game on the CBS thread is about to end (probably by the time I vote later today, lol).

    @Nick
    How did you change your picture – I’m normally good at computer stuff but I can’t seem to find how to do it?

  • Holly

    @Rebecca,

    For me, when I log on to gravatar, it brings me directly to a page that says “manage gravatars” where it has an option to select an email to modify or add a new email…

  • Rebecca

    @Holly
    Thanks. I logged in after resetting the password and now I think I’m set. Found a Cougar Town pic on Facebook I decided to use. Hope it shows up now.

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