NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Bunny

    There is buzz from Deadline and tvmojoe(vulture) that Whitney is DEAD.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    I was originally 5% higher than Bill on 30 Rock pre yesterday’s news, I’m comfortable sticking with that and saying 100%!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I was originally 5% higher than Bill on 30 Rock pre yesterday’s news, I’m comfortable sticking with that and saying 100%!”

    Edit done by the author!

  • Tyler

    It’s too bad that Bent is getting the boot. It was a fantastic show while it lasted.

  • toadytoady

    Its comforting to see 100% renewal from both on SVU.
    Not long to wait now.
    Deadline is suggesting there was a package deal with Chicago Fire…

  • Dana

    I hope you are both right with Parenthood! It´s NBCs only critics favorite drama.

  • Bookworm

    I’m happy if Parenthood stays. I really do like that show. As for the rest, I really don’t care either way.

  • 47th

    I’m so happy with Parenthood’s perspectives. Lots of other websites have it as a bubble show.

  • Janis

    I am fine with anything being cancelled but really wish they would tie up the shows…………ESPECIALLY for ones like AWAKE………..;( I guessed wrong and started to watch that one. My PVR is totally full of shows that I will just delete should they be cancelled…

  • Mr Mumble

    Bunny, I think the rumors about Whitney are why its got a low percentage compared to 30 Rock or Community. Robert and Bill have had Whitney as a likely renewal all mid-season.

  • Ultima

    Harry’s Law – 0%
    Awake – 0%
    Bent – 0%
    BFF – 0%
    Chelsea – 0%
    Whitney – 10%
    Up All Night – 30%
    Community – 90%
    Parenthood – 90%
    The Office – 100%
    30 Rock – 100%
    Parks & Rec – 100%
    SVU – 100%

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bunny, I think the rumors about Whitney are why its got a low percentage compared to 30 Rock or Community. Robert and Bill have had Whitney as a likely renewal all mid-season.”

    Less the “rumors” and more the big bunch of NBC sitcom pickups already, and stories that all the old comedies are likely back, for me.

  • SmG

    I watch Parenthood on NBC. I also watch another show each year which ends up getting cancelled; Trauma, Event and now Awake :) I am glad that there is a %95 chance that Parenthood is coming back.

    Hoping to beat these odds next year (Planning to watch Revolution, County and Chicago Fire)…

  • Scott M

    Chelsea – 10%
    Up All Night – 40%
    Whitney – 60%
    Community, Parks & Rec – 100% (No way shows within reach of Syndication and with around average to slightly above average ratings get cancelled)

    Everything is else is a foregone conclusion.

  • Harris

    Playboy Club is coming back Fall 2013!

    Also, Heroes.

  • Harris

    While I am at it, also Chuck.

  • Melanie

    I am glad to see Parenthood and SVU sticking around!! :)

  • Tom

    Bent 0%
    HL 10% (If ever there was a demo buster, it would be HL. But 0.8! How can that be renewed!)
    Awake 0%
    Chelsea? 0%
    UAN 55% (Too many names involved to not give it one more spackle shot.)
    Whitney 55% (I would have said 80 yesterday. But NBC is picking up so many comedies….)
    30 Rock 100%
    Community 85% (Comedy Central if not)
    Parent 90% (Expensive, but NBC doesn’t have many options)
    SVU 100%
    P&R 100%
    Office 100%

  • Sports Preemption

    RIP Awake, I hardly knew ye. Shame too, because of the three rookie dramas I watched on NBC (Grimm and Smash), you were the best. Hopefully somebody in cableland gives you a shot.

    RIP Bent. You were so much better than I expected, and with New Girl, my most enjoyed new comedy of the year. Shame you didn’t get the attention you deserved. You will be missed. You died young, but you shined bright.

    I agree with Harry’s Law (people really need to start understanding the way the Nielsen system and advertisers work together, but it’s not this sites fault that they don’t. If Harry’s Law was on HBO, Showtime, or Starz, then it’d be a hit. But it isn’t, so it isn’t. Get over it people. Hate hearing people complain how the system is broken or ad people are dumb because people over 50 have money.)

    So the real decision is between UAN and Whitney. And even though I personally liked UAN better, and gave up on Whitney too early from what I hear (it wasn’t even Whitney’s or the boyfriends [who I liked on Workaholics] fault. I thought the rest of the cast sucked. I’m not going to watch an awkward 6 person comedy only for 2 people, when I dislike the other 4), I still think Whitney probably deserves the renewal over UAN, so I’d go 55% Whitney, 45% UAN.

  • JJJ

    Yeah, I think you guys might miss on Whitney. It seems the tide is turning against it late.

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