NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More
Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.
5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.
5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.
5/11 Update (3): Harry’s Law has been canceled.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
|Are You There, Chelsea?||25%||25%|
|Up All Night||55%||51%|
|Law & Order: SVU||100%||100%|
|Parks & Recreation||100%||100%|
As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.
No significant difference in Robert’s and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry’s Law is confirmed, you’ll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.
To address the picky commenters out there who’ll otherwise whine “You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!”, please take all of my guesses above 50% as “will be renewed” and those below 50% as “will be canceled” and you may interpret the “distance” from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
For those who’d like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I’ll produce for the season, enjoy:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Best Friends Forever*||canceled||0.58|
|Free Agents *||canceled||0.66|
|The Playboy Club *||canceled||0.67|
|Chuck (F)*||final season complete||0.69|
|Are You There, Chelsea?*||😥😥||0.90|
|Up All Night*||😐😐😐||1.01|
|Parks & Recreation||1.10|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.12|
The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC’s shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.