NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Rebecca

    Community got a fourth season. It’s on this site now but I don’t have the link. Still no official word about Parks or The Office.

  • Mdh

    Awake is a great show!! Why are people not into it?

  • Johnny

    Deadline is reporting that things are looking GOOD for Harry’s Law. They’re hearing rumblings of a 13-episode midseason order.

    0% chance, guys? :)

  • Simon

    Harry’s Law hasnt been officially renewed yet but is likely to be renewed for midseason Older skewing Harry’s Law has been renewed for season 3 according to deadline I have personally been arguing with people all year that total viewers do matter so i am delighted that this wonderful show is renewed, and will change how people think about ratings.

    From SpoilerTV

  • Julia

    @Simon
    You do realize that Deadline link is from LAST year, right?

  • Simon

    @Julia
    Noticed that yes, see post below. Not that I’m a fan of the show or anything, just find it very very odd that NBC seem to have no standards

  • boogke

    Whitney found its footing midway through the season and is funny and charming and should be renewed

  • Simon

    NBC

    Harry’s Law should be back with 13 episodes midseason.
    The Office and Parks and Recreation are imminent renewals.
    Up All Night is looking good for renewal, while, surprisingly, word is that Whitney may be renewed.
    Awake, Are You There, Chelsea?, Bent, Best Friends Forever and The Firm will be cancelled.

    http://www.tvwise.co.uk/2012/05/upfronts-2012-harrys-law-body-of-proof-inch-closer-to-renewal-more/

    The part about Harry’s Law is laughable, if this happens then both Bill and Robert will be made a laughing stock. As much as this ‘renewal’ is, we can expect Kathy Bates to be pointing and laughing.

  • Jenny

    @Mary “ @Mars, I’m sure that if NBC was successful they wouldn’t be using the time-share method. The only reason they’re doing it now is because they’re desperate. They don’t have any bona fide hits. I’m sure if they had a huge hit, they’d schedule it for a full 22 episode season.”

    I agree. I think NBC is throwing a Hail Mary, Going For Broke, Thinking Out Of The Box.
    NBC is clearly stating that they do not believe in any of their shows and they want all new shows on the NBC network. The only show that is safe is The Voice. NBC is tired of being in fourth place and the only way to for it to be competitive is to throw out all the old shows and bring in new ones. And when you look at their ratings, trends and total viewers, this is a good strategy; NBC does not have much to lose at this point.

    Next Fall, Any show can be replaced at Any time at NBC. Look at all the shows that were renewed for 13 to 15 episodes (even Parenthood). Basically all NBC are filler for time slots, until NBC can find shows to replace them.
    And when you look at their ratings, trends and total viewers, this is a good strategy; NBC does not have much to lose at this point.

  • CookyMonzta

    Mark my words again: Smash won’t make it to Christmas, especially with no Voice in front of it.

  • Jason

    Howzabout this for a prediction:

    Harry’s Law…100% renewal

    And no, I don’t watch it (since its new Sun. timeslot is inconvenient for me. I never missed an ep of season one, however.)…but I’m just gonna prove to you how ludicrous you’re being with your 0% forecast. It’s absurd and really calls your credibility into question.

  • Tyrese

    Yesterdays epidode of Awake was sick!!!! Too bad it’ll get cancelled…

  • Unproncble

    don’t cancel Harry’s Law. I like it. So does everyone else I know.

  • Rebecca

    Parks and The Office were just renewed – there’s an article on this site (no link, sorry). They expect to hear about renewals for Whitney and UAN possibly soon.

  • Carm

    I can’t believe NETWORKS still go with the 18-49 group!! There are a lot more of over 50 that Love these shows that are being cancelled.
    WE LOVE HARRY’S LAW & UNFORGETTABLE!!!! They should be left ON!!!!!!!! Have some for 18-49 year old and then some for over 50!!!!
    Why are NETWORKS still going with Nielsen Ratings???
    Besides most 18-49 year old DON”T WATCH TV> Or if they do is not a lot.
    PLEASE RETHINK YOUR WAYS NYETWORKS!!!!!

  • Jeff R.

    One last Harry’s Law rationalization: the HL demographic votes, in larger numbers than the standard target, and it’s an election year. So give then 13 and start them early, in August, and target sell the ad space to the campaigns…

  • Adam W.

    To Carm,

    “Why are NETWORKS still going with Nielsen Ratings???
    Besides most 18-49 year old DON”T WATCH TV> Or if they do is not a lot.”

    I don’t know this for a fact, but I think rationally, the reason for the such a high emphasis on the 18-49 year-old demographic is due to the fact that not only are the advertisement slots geared to this age group, but because the age group is more likely to spend money buying whatever is advertised. If you go younger, they are less likely to have money to spend on what is advertised, and 50+ is a little more conservative with spending. And I think you are underestimating the 18-49 demographic because all of the ratings are designed to reflect on exactly how many 18-49 year old individuals are, in fact watching tv. It is just a fact that not that many 18-59 year old individuals are watching NBC, except for Thursday Night (I only watch Community and Grimm with any consistency on this network). I am a 29 teacher, and I can tell you that I personally watch lots of TV. I just mix up my viewership between cable and all network shows based off of their lineup. And the reason why I don’t watch “Harry’s Law” is because although Kathy Bates is talented and witty, it just isn’t a major interest grabber for me, personally. And honestly, I think the fact that “Unforgettable” did so poorly is because it resembled “The Mentalist” too much (in premise), and “The Mentalist” fans like what they have, and that is why I have never given the show a chance.

  • Jenn

    Uh, Hello? The Firm is still on the air on Saturday nights, thank you very much.

  • Tony McDay

    Harry’s Law is an example of a good show on a lousy network. the show was bounced all over the place, and never given a fair change. NBC by far worst broadcast network hands down.

  • lar01

    Harry’s Law and The Firm both should have been kept. Saturday Night has been a vast wasteland except for The Firm, and Harry’s Law is the only decent lawyer show on the air.

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