NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • rob60990

    Harry’s Law – 1%
    Awake – -10%
    Bent – 0%
    BFF – 0%
    Chelsea – 0%
    Whitney – 30%
    Up All Night – 20%
    Community – 90%
    Parenthood – 70%
    The Office – 100%
    30 Rock – 100%
    Parks & Rec – 100%
    SVU – 100%

  • Sports Preemption

    Well, reading through the comments, I guess I could downgrade UAN to maybe a 40% if there were a bunch of pilot pickups in the comedy department, but I find it weird if NBC wiped the slate clean and started fresh and didn’t include at least a single multi-cam to try and anchor something outside of the Thursday block, so I will still stick with 55% for Whitney. It wouldn’t do that bad as a midseason, and I think it survives well outside of Thursday, which UAN just wouldn’t do.

  • RyanCanada

    if Whitney gets cancelled, im done with NBC

  • ReallyTired

    Harry’s Law – 0%
    Awake – 0%
    Bent – 0%
    BFF – 0%
    Chelsea – 10%
    Whitney – 10%
    Up All Night – 75%
    Community – 100%
    Parenthood – 100%
    The Office – 100%
    30 Rock – 100%
    Parks & Rec – 100%
    SVU – 50% (My Shocker Pick)

  • Concerned Citizen

    Renewed: Community, Parks and Recreation, The Office, 30 Rock, Parenthood, Law and Order SVU

    Cancelled: Awake, Harry’s Law, Whitney, Up All Night, Bent, Are You There, Chelsea?

    New shows: 1600 Penn, Animal Practice, Go On, The New Normal, Save Me, Guys with Kids, Hannibal, Revolution, Chicago Fire, County, Notorious

  • RyanCanada

    UAN should be cancelled, good cast doesnt = a good show. its literly unwatchable

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Yeah, I think you guys might miss on Whitney. It seems the tide is turning against it late.”

    I could live with that miss.

  • rob60990

    Up All Night was 10X more watchable than Whitney.

  • Max

    May 14, 2012, is the NBC upfronts, so I know what NBC shows will come back or won’t come back for next season:

    Already: Grimm & Smash
    Coming back: 30 Rock, Community, Law & Order: SVU, Parenthood, Parks & Recreation, Whitney (Unlikely), & The Office
    On the bubble: Up All Night
    Won’t come back: Awake, Bent, Harry’s Law, & Are You There, Chelsea?

  • Dennis

    Harry’s Law – 25% (HL is most watched drama in viewers)
    Awake – 10%
    Bent – 0%
    BFF – 0%
    Chelsea – 0%
    Whitney – 5%
    Up All Night – 50%
    Community – 100%
    Parenthood – 100%
    The Office – 100%
    30 Rock – 100% for final season
    Parks & Rec – 90%
    SVU – 100 %

  • Dan S

    I always get a laugh when someone said there done with a network if there favorite show is cancelled. I could say I’m done with NBC if they cancel Harry’s Law but guess what ? I may have a new favorite, perhaps Revolution that just might catch on. It stinks when our favorites go away too soon but hey it’s only TV

  • TVDude

    “Up All Night was 10X more watchable than Whitney.”

    I didn’t watch either one after a few episodes in, but Whitney exceeded expectations on Wednesday while Up All Night fell below expectations on Thursday. I think that is why people arrived at the opinions that they have. In my opinion both shows should be canceled, but that would make it the second year in a row that NBC failed to pick up a new comedy.

  • tjw

    I used to have Harry’s Law at 0% too, but Dan Feinberg made a good point on his Podcast yesterday that if NBC can’t figure out a way to monetize 7 million 50+ year-old viewers when the vast majority of their other shows are drawing <5 million viewers, then they have really failed as a network. Obviously, their overall ratings don't show much success, but their ad team has to find some way to make money on this show, even it's not in the traditional way.

    Thus, I figure Harry's Law at slightly higher than 0%.

  • Tony ^_^

    Bent: Cancelled.
    Harry’s Law: Could go both ways. Renewal based on the gazillion million viewers it has.
    Awake: Cancelled.
    Are You There, Chelsea?: I really love this show!! :D But Cancelled. :(
    Up All Night: Could go both ways. But Cancellation > Renewal.
    Whitney: Renewed! :D
    30 Rock: Could go both ways.
    Community: Renewed.
    Parenthood: Renewed.
    Law & Order: SVU: Renewed.
    Parks & Recreation: Renewed.
    The Office: Renewed.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I used to have Harry’s Law at 0% too, but Dan Feinberg made a good point on his Podcast yesterday that if NBC can’t figure out a way to monetize 7 million 50+ year-old viewers when the vast majority of their other shows are drawing <5 million viewers, then they have really failed as a network”

    Among the many stupid things Dan Feinberg has said, that’s among the stupidest.

    I know he’s all about the art, but that betrays a complete lack of understanding about how the business works. Either he’s in denial, or he’s just an idiot.

  • Tommy Mickens

    I didn’t know you were going to split these final picks by network. As promised to Bill, here’s my final picks:

    Bent – 0%
    Awake – 10%
    Are You There, Chelsea? – 40%
    Harry’s Law – 51%
    Whitney – 51%
    Up All Night – 60%
    Community – 80%
    Parenthood – 80%
    Law & Order: SVU – 95%
    30 Rock – 95%
    Parks & Recreation – 100%
    The Office – 100%

  • Holly

    @Bill,

    “I used to have Harry’s Law at 0% too, but Dan Feinberg made a good point on his Podcast yesterday that if NBC can’t figure out a way to monetize 7 million 50+ year-old viewers when the vast majority of their other shows are drawing <5 million viewers, then they have really failed as a network”

    Among the many stupid things Dan Feinberg has said, that’s among the stupidest.

    I agree, although if NBC does manage to find a way to get paid for older viewers, I will certainly cheer them on.

  • Oliver

    Bill, wasn’t there a poll not long ago where you said that a cancellation of a “likely/certain renewal” was very unlikely and you were surprised so many people were choosing that option? Do you still feel that way?

  • Ultima

    @RyanCanada
    its literly unwatchable

    You must live in the French part of Canada…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, wasn’t there a poll not long ago where you said that a cancellation of a “likely/certain renewal” was very unlikely and you were surprised so many people were choosing that option? Do you still feel that way?”

    If Whitney gets canceled as a recent “likely renewal”, then those folks would have made the correct pick!

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