NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Oliver

    I only bring it up because I thought it was a strange comment at the time. I would be much less surprised if Whitney/Last Man Standing got axed than a surprise renewal of a low-rated show.

  • Loni

    It will be sad to see “Harry’s Law” get cancelled. I understand Kathy Bates’ frustration with the fact that such a well written, well acted show didn’t catch on. Since it does have an audience (albeit an older skewing audience) is there a chance the show could be picked up by cable like AMC or TNT? It’s too good of a show to just take off the air so soon.

  • dmso

    AWAKE deserves a better fate.

    @Harris: NBC probably misses HEROES at this point. I believe its low water mark was 1.8.

  • tjw

    @Bill,

    “Among the many stupid things Dan Feinberg has said, that’s among the stupidest.

    I know he’s all about the art, but that betrays a complete lack of understanding about how the business works. Either he’s in denial, or he’s just an idiot.”

    First, I’ve never gotten the impression that Feinberg is a fan of, or even watches, Harry’s Law.

    Second, I guess the NBC execs could be thinking liking AT&T’s CEO and saying things like “You lie awake at night worrying about what is that which will disrupt your business model.” But their business model is already failing (or they’re failing at their business model). I can’t imagine that they don’t have a dozen people sitting around trying to figure out how to make money on their second-most watched show.

    Saying Harry’s Law has a 0% chance of renewal (to me) is like saying that NBC isn’t even trying to figure out how to make money aside from the traditional A18-49 ad sales. And if that’s the case, they’re done. Barring some kind of Lost/Desperate Housewives/Grey’s Anatomy rebirth (a la ABC a few years ago) they’re just done. And I don’t think relying on the second coming of the best development season in recent memory is a good strategy.

  • tjw

    I should also add that I DON’T think it will be renewed, nor have I ever even watched the show.

  • Ultima

    @dmso
    NBC probably misses HEROES at this point. I believe its low water mark was 1.8.

    I’m sure they miss the first couple seasons of Heroes…

    Heroes low point was a 1.8, but its season average that year was only a 2.3, just above Chuck’s 2.2. You know how far Chuck fell, and that was a gradual fall; Heroes was dropping like a rock year-to-year.

  • Jason

    If Harry’s Law is renewed, will you shut down this site? Just how confident ARE you in that 0% chance? Put your money where your flawed prediction is.

  • The End

    Robert and Bill have those pretty much dead on, but just for effect.

    Harry’s Law – 0.000000000000000001%

    It would be a little unfair to say this show has 0 percent chance to come back, I think in reality Harry’s Law will come back when hell freezes over, when the sun goes Nova, when the Universe eventually resets itself.

    I think those odds above reflect that. That tiny, tiny, and by god do I mean tiny percentage for Harry’s Law that I’ve given is fair.

  • Steve

    Keeping my fingers crossed that Harry’s Law gets renewed and NBC puts it on Friday nights after Grimm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Ultima

    The deluded Harry’s Law fans do realize that there are twenty six (26) different shows on NBC this season that had higher season averages than Harry’s Law, right? And only seven that didn’t.

  • The End

    @Ultima

    Wouldn’t surprise me if someone aimed a comment like ‘hater’ at you for saying that, although you are making perfect sense and are absolutely, without a doubt correct.

    My sense of humor above may offend fans of the show though.

  • JJJ

    @Bill–yep if you miss on Whitney looks like still have very high percentage. Have to see how you do on the CW, it’s kinda wacky.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Holly

    I’d cheer them on, too, but it would shake up the entire industry. It would make predictions for next year difficult across all networks, which would make for a lot more fun, of course. Still, CBS, a much more powerful and successful network, has been trying to get older viewers to “count” for close to a decade, if not longer, at least off and on. If they can’t pull it off, NBC can’t… at least not in Harry’s Law.

    The only reason HL will return is if they want to take a loss for the next two years. Fridays would be fine for this. The point being that it is the sort of show that would do very well in syndication, as long as it keeps up the quality. I don’t think this is going to happen, though.

  • Holly

    @TerryJacksonNYC,

    but it would shake up the entire industry.

    Which is what would make it so great :twisted:

    I’m not saying it’s likely, especially given CBS’ ongoing efforts (and failures) in that area. But it would make things very interesting.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “If Harry’s Law is renewed, will you shut down this site? Just how confident ARE you in that 0% chance? Put your money where your flawed prediction is.”

    Jason, sounds like you’re still in stage 1 of the TV Fan Stages of Grief.

  • Bob

    I think they will bring back Harry’s Law. So what about the demo. I cannot see NBC cancelling a show that gets double the audience that the other shows get. The only way I can see NBC cancelling Harry’s Law is if they desire to become the CW which they practically are where 2 million viewers is enough per show.

  • The End

    Kathy Bates would easily be able to get another role though once Harry’s Law is over. I thought she was pretty good on Two and a Half Men, pity she had to play the role she did, she could of easily of done a full time role and made perfect sense when she appeared.

    Harry’s Law being cancelled wouldn’t mean anything to her career, she’d likely just move onto the next show within months, weeks even of this show being cancelled.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Holly

    Well, that would be great, for sure. But our collective community that rallies for and against this great experiment (for lack of a better word, but I think it fits, since it is scientific in nature) that Bill and Robert run wouldn’t know how to react to the fact that everything they’ve come to learn and understand is no longer true.

    For me, it would be fun to figure it out all over again, but I think predictions, in an every-viewer-counts scenario would be either too easy or impossible. For what it’s worth, though, as screwy as the system is, I like coming here a few times every week to learn what’s going on and seeing what certain folks are sharing. I think that would come to an end. As much as I love Harry’s Law, I’d rather see it go than see the TVBTN “community” no longer have a clear purpose.

    Does that make sense? Is it too corny? I don’t take part in many forums at all, since most of them are run by trolls leading other trolls. Yes, Bill can be snarky, but he’s never an @sshole… for the most part, he’s just keepin it fo reelz.

  • tjw

    @TerryJacksonNYC, Holly

    but it would shake up the entire industry.

    Which is what would make it so great :twisted:

    I’m not saying it’s likely, especially given CBS’ ongoing efforts (and failures) in that area. But it would make things very interesting.

    I don’t think it would necessarily shake up the industry because nobody would need it as badly as NBC does. CBS can dump Unforgettable (which gets 78% of its viewers outside 18-49) because it can pretty easily beat that revenue with something new.

    Harry’s Law gets 86% of its viewers outside 18-49. If they can figure out how to get $.50 from each 50+ viewer for every $1 their 18-49 viewers bring in, they would double their revenue.

    I don’t think they’ll figure it out, but it should would be nice to see somebody succeed at something different.

  • Kissan

    I actually want UAN to get renewed over Whitney and all the other comedies. Anybody else think so?

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