NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Holly

    @TerryJacksonNYC,

    I understand your reasoning (and really, really don’t think you have anything to worry about). But changes will eventually come (not necessarily in this regard, but in the industry overall) and I have every confidence that Robert and Bill would be able to adapt to those changes.

  • Feedback

    I’ve never seen one episode of Harry’s Law and I’m a huge Awake fan. Nevertheless, I know Awake is certain to be canceled and yet I still think Harry’s Law is getting renewed. I have somewhere around 55% confidence that it will get renewed.

  • Ultima

    @Bob
    I think they will bring back Harry’s Law. So what about the demo. I cannot see NBC cancelling a show that gets double the audience that the other shows get. The only way I can see NBC cancelling Harry’s Law is if they desire to become the CW which they practically are where 2 million viewers is enough per show.

    One day, you’ll eventually realize that total viewers is completely meaningless for network decisions and then you can be on the same page as the rest of us. Until then, enjoy your delusions.

  • s0303

    ratings wise, there’s no way whitney should be cancelled before up all night…

  • Ultima

    @tjw
    Harry’s Law gets 86% of its viewers outside 18-49. If they can figure out how to get $.50 from each 50+ viewer for every $1 their 18-49 viewers bring in, they would double their revenue.

    Harry’s Law doesn’t exist in a vaccum, it isn’t the only show on TV and the 86% of its viewers that are 50+ don’t only watch Harry’s Law.

    Advertisers can reach those 50+ viewers through other shows, so there’s no reason they should pay more for Harry’s Law to reach them.

  • Nick

    Bent 0%
    Harry’s Law 22%
    Awake 0%
    Are You There, Chelsea? 0%
    Up All Night 37%
    Whitney 60%
    30 Rock 95%
    Community 95%
    Parenthood 95%
    Law & Order: SVU 100%
    Parks & Recreation 100%
    The Office 100%
    Very close to Bill and Robert, exept for HL :-)

  • Bob

    @Ultima,
    I know how it works and I also know that their are exceptions to every rule. Who would have thought that The Good Wife would have been renewed on the number one network and most successful network CBS. Well they did and probably will have enough other shows to cover whatever loss’ they take from The Good Wife. I think you are trying to say that NBC is so pathetic that renewing Harry’s Law would be to overwhelming for the lowest rated network and for that you are probably correct.

  • SherLOCKED (The Mighty Cringe)

    Community! Community! Community! Community! Community! Community!

    All I have to say. :D

    (Though I am hoping The Office gets a FINAL season order.)

  • Concerned Citizen

    @Bob

    The Good Wife needs one more season to reach syndication. Harry’s Law needs three. The situations are not comparable.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Holly

    I know you’re right. And the fact is that I believe industry changes are needed pretty much across the board if traditional “broadcast networks” are going to exist in any form that is profitable. It won’t be Neilsen changing, since the numbers are tallied using highly accurate statistical methods. And since what we all do here is base our conversation on the same numbers, I’m sure we’ll go on, as long as we’re interested in pop culture or at least knowing more about shows we don’t watch than our friends who are addicted to them do, which is always fun.

    In the long run (or short run, perhaps?) the networks need to convince Madison Ave players to change how the Neilsen data is interpreted and weighed, which might not be possible without some level of collusion that might actually be illegal (I’m guessing it was in the past but, with the four broadcast networks losing more people to cable each year, free market arguments might no longer apply; I’m sure someone else knows more).

    If the networks stand together, they may be able to negotiate cheaper rates for 18-49, which would be great for the advertisers who would have to give back a percentage of their savings in beginning to pay for 50+ viewers. If the rate for “the demo” is dropped by, say, 16%, you can ask that half of that go, on average, into paying for eyes in the 50+ demo. This can be tried for a year or two and might be beneficial to the advertisers and networks, even if it means that the definition of a “hit” show will be slightly altered. In such a scenario, at least one older-skewing show can be saved every year and the network can have internal “make good” deal in which producers of shows are paid back some of their loss.

    I’m sure lots of simulations of this could easily be run using past seasons’ data. None of them, however, would include the single most important point, which is that those seasons took place when the 50+ demo didn’t matter and, therefore, the scheduling and advertising didn’t reflect the desire to reach said people.

    Within ten years, the scripted demo average of the four major networks – across the board – will be at about 2.2 (give or take .2 or so). This isn’t sustainable. I doubt the industry will die, but advertising costs will have to change, insisting that every viewer counts on some level because networks won’t be able to survive with the sort of revenue this would allow. If they nets don’t “collude” to make everybody count, they’ll have to be very aggressive about seriously raising the cost for their performances in the demo.

  • SJ

    Bent – 0%
    Awake – 0%
    Harry’s Law – 0%
    Are You There Chelsea – 0%

    Up All Night – 51%
    Whitney – 55%
    Parenthood – 90%
    Community – 90%

    30 Rock – 100%
    Parks and Recreation – 100%
    The Office – 100%
    Law and Order: SVU – 100%

  • carol

    There are only three shows I watch on this channel and if you cancel Harry’s Law and Awake there will be only one….not even worth tuning into that one show.

  • Ultima

    @Bob
    Who would have thought that The Good Wife would have been renewed on the number one network and most successful network CBS. Well they did and probably will have enough other shows to cover whatever loss’ they take from The Good Wife.

    CBS is expecting to make money off of The Good Wife renewal by selling the show into syndication. Many people saw it coming.

    I think you are trying to say that NBC is so pathetic that renewing Harry’s Law would be to overwhelming for the lowest rated network and for that you are probably correct.

    No, what I’m trying to say is that viewers outside the 18-49 demo are meaningless and should be ignored. Period. No exceptions.

    Harry’s Law shouldn’t be viewed as a low rated show with high viewership, it should be viewed as a low rated show and nothing more.

    How would you classify a second season show on NBC with a 1.1 season average rating and 1.4 million viewers that isn’t produced by NBCU? Certain cancellation, obviously. That’s all that Harry’s Law is, therefore, it’s a certain cancellation.

  • Bob

    @Ultima,
    Good points. I just think it stinks is all and I am in the all important demo….

  • Ultima

    @TerryJackson
    Within ten years, the scripted demo average of the four major networks – across the board – will be at about 2.2 (give or take .2 or so). This isn’t sustainable

    Even though ratings are declining, advertising rates are going up. Advertisers aren’t paying for the absolute ratings, they’re paying for the concentration and consistency of viewers. As long as TV is the best advertising medium and broadcast networks are at the top of the pile, they’ll be able to demand top dollar for their product.

  • Chuck_T

    So let’s say Harry’s Law gets an average of 8 million veiewers with about 0.9 18-49 while Community gets 3.5 million viewers with a 1.5 average 18-49, wouldn’t HL actually be getting more 18-49 year old viewers due to having more people watching the show than Community? even if it’s overall number in that key category is lower?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Within ten years, the scripted demo average of the four major networks – across the board – will be at about 2.2 (give or take .2 or so). This isn’t sustainable”

    Broadcast primetime ratings have been declining since the early 80’s, and ad pricing has pretty much kept pace with the declines or slightly exceeded them, some years better than others, some networks better than others.

    The broadcast TV business model has been changing for a very long time, but changing very slowly, and I don’t see any current indication that the networks are unable to adapt to that rate of change. This is not “Apple introduces the iPhone 5 years ago and wipes out the entire cell phone manufacturing business” type change.

    I expect the ratings to continue to fall, and the networks to continue to work around it.

  • Survivor Fan

    I will chicken out on Whitney and say 50%!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “So let’s say Harry’s Law gets an average of 8 million veiewers with about 0.9 18-49 while Community gets 3.5 million viewers with a 1.5 average 18-49, wouldn’t HL actually be getting more 18-49 year old viewers due to having more people watching the show than Community? even if it’s overall number in that key category is lower?”

    No.

    Community’s 1.5 adults 18-49 rating means that it gets 67% more of the viewers the advertisers pay for than Harry’s Law’s 0.9 rating.

    Here’s some more information about ratings. http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/demystifying-the-s/

  • tjw

    @Chuck_T

    The demo rating is based on total 18-49 viewers, not the number of viewers for the show. Getting a 0.9 means that you’re getting 0.9% of all 18-49 viewers, not that 0.9% of your viewers are 18-49.

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