NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Fake Me Out

    I know this is a numbers website but I’m hoping someone knows what type of wine goes good with roast bear? Kathy and I are dinning next week on some delicious bear meat and I’d just like to know what to bring to congratulate her on the Friday @ 10pm slot renewal.

    YMMV

    PS: Don’t worry folks, this is free range bear, fed only the finest Playboy Cub and Prime Suspect feeds and humanely slaughtered by Kathy reaching into it’s mouth and ripping it’s heart out.

  • Bunny

    I feel bad for showrunner/actress Lennon Parham..she’s got this huge Savebff campaign asking people to sign the petition for BFF on twitter…she truly believe that it’s coming back..

  • cc

    @carol

    I’m with you. The ONLY 2 scripted shows I still watch on nbc are HL and Grimm. Cancel HL, I’ll catch Grimm elsewhere. No need for nbc for me any longer.

  • KJ Styles

    Booooo to Bill and Robert, you guys don’t disagree on anything! You’re no Wilbon and Kornheiser, that’s for sure.

  • Mike

    deadline says witney will be axed

  • cc

    @Fake me out

    Love it!

  • Sonic Wave

    There seems to be a very general consensus in the media that P & R and Community were in extreme danger this year. I think people strictly looked at the averages of 1.3 to 1.7 for both shows and figured that if they weren’t pulling 3.0 or even 2.0 llike CBS or ABC comedies that they were losing.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Booooo to Bill and Robert, you guys don’t disagree on anything! You’re no Wilbon and Kornheiser, that’s for sure.”

    Sadly, we attempt to manufacture disagreement at times, but it’s too much work.

    Mike & Tony do a lot better job at that!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’m with you. The ONLY 2 scripted shows I still watch on nbc are HL and Grimm. Cancel HL, I’ll catch Grimm elsewhere. No need for nbc for me any longer.”

    Sounds to me like you’ve moved to stage 3 of the TV Fan Stages of Grief.

  • josh

    I only care about 30 ROCK .

    And rally cant wait to see Hanibal next fall.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I feel bad for showrunner/actress Lennon Parham..she’s got this huge Savebff campaign asking people to sign the petition for BFF on twitter…she truly believe that it’s coming back..”

    If she really believes it, she’s badly confused for someone in the business.

    If she doesn’t, she’s even more cynical than I’d expect for someone in the TV business.

  • MJDB

    Predictions:

    Bent-0%
    Harry’s Law-10%
    Awake-0%
    Are You There, Chelsea?-15%
    Up All Night-30%
    Whitney-70%
    30 Rock-95%
    Community-95%
    Parenthood-95%
    Law and Order: SVU-100%
    Parks and Recreation-100%
    The Office-100%

  • Lord Seth

    Personally I’d give Harry’s Law a pity 1% for the total viewers.

  • Lord Seth

    @ Bill Gorman

    Mike & Tony do a lot better job at that!

    Who are they again? Heh.

  • Jared

    Final Predictions for NBC

    Cancelled
    Are You There, Chelsea?: I’d forgotten that this show ever existed. Or maybe I just wanted to. Moving on.

    Awake: I quite like this show, and I’ll be sad to see it go. But I won’t waste time condemning NBC for the cancellation. The numbers speak for themselves.

    Bent: This show deserved much better than it got. Famous last words.

    Harry’s Law: Logically speaking, NBC should be able to find some way to make money off its most watched show, even if it’s something like “Harry’s Law – coming to you Friday nights at 8 on NBC, presented by Metamucil!” Having said that, NBC has enough trouble to deal with without trying to reinvent the way the TV business works. The Cancellation Bear will dine well on this show, and it will taste absolutely nothing like crow.

    Whitney: Generally speaking, I try not to put too much stock in reports from Deadline – they tend to take questionable information and go nuts (see Index: Netflix, any cancelled show ever). But I’m more inclined to believe their recent report that Whitney is a longshot to return because it jives with my suspicion that Whitney’s “likely renewal “chances have been talked up more by Up All Night’s fall rather than its own relative stability on Wednesdays. NBC seems likely to pick up at least 6 comedies (most of them single-camera), and give short orders to at least three marginally rated performers (30 Rock, Community, Parks and Rec), plus the dying hulk of The Office. Whitney doesn’t seem to fit the profile of where the network want to go.

    Up All Night: Not too sure about this – after all, NBC owns this show and Lorne Micheals is an Executive Producer. But unlike Community, Parks and Rec, 30 Rock, and the other marginally rated Thursday night shows, UAN is three years from syndication, and has little place on a network trying to redefine itself. The showrunner has also moved on, and the network is loading up on new comedies. UAN has a better chance of coming back on a short order than Whitney does, but I think NBC will let it go.

    Renewed:
    30 Rock: By all accounts, a 13 episode final season seems to be signed, sealed, and delivered.

    Community: Needs 17 episodes for syndication, and I believe Sony will make it worth NBC’s while. Reports are that the order would be shortened one if it happens, and while it makes sense to give it at least 18, maybe Sony would be content with a 13-15 episode order, which would get it to 84-86 episodes Not quite Six Seasons and a Movie, but I’ll take what I can get.

    Law & Order: SVU: After dumping the mothership two years ago and L&O:LA last year, I think NBC will tread carefully around Dick Wolf. This show will probably get two more seasons at least.

    The Office: This is the only returning NBC comedy that seems likely to get a full season order. I think that it will almost certainly be the last, with most cast members cutting deals to appear in only a handful of episodes before they try to launch the Dwight spinoff in the spring. Then maybe, just maybe, they’ll finally be able to let this show die in peace.

    Parenthood: Probably won’t get a full season order, but it will be back. Two shortened seasons would be enough to get it to syndication, and it’s been consistent enough that NBC can probably afford to keep it for that long.

    Parks and Recreation: A lock for renewal. Reports of a short order for this show don’t really make sense to me. It needs 20 episodes, almost a full season to reach the magic number of 88, and NBC owns the show, so it has every reason to want it to get there. I think this is the only one of NBC’s critically acclaimed Thursday night shows that has a chance of being surviving beyond the upcoming season – so maybe NBC is thinking 13 episodes this year, and then 13 episodes in 2013-2014 to wrap things up? Whatever happens, I’m just happy this show is coming back.

  • Mark

    MONDAY:
    8pm – The Voice
    10pm – Revolution

    TUESDAY:
    8pm – Go On
    8:30pm – Save Me
    9pm – The New Normal
    9:30pm – 1600 Penn
    10pm – Parenthood

    WEDNESDAY:
    8pm – The Biggest Loser
    9pm – County
    10pm – Law and Order: SVU

    THURSDAY:
    8pm – Community
    8:30pm – 30 Rock
    9pm – The Office
    9:30pm – Parks and Recreation
    10pm – Smash

    FRIDAY:
    8pm – Do No Harm
    9pm – Grimm
    10pm – Dateline

    SUNDAY: (febuary)
    8pm – Guys With Kids
    8:30pm – Daddy’s Girls
    9pm – The Celebrity Apprentice

    MIDSEASON:
    Chicago Fire
    Hannibal
    Notorious
    Animal Kingdom
    Up All Night

  • capslocke

    Bent- 0%
    Harry’s Law- 0% :-(
    Awake- 0%
    Are You There, Chelsea?- 0%
    Up All Night- 40%
    Whitney- 25%
    30 Rock- 95%
    Community- 95%
    Parenthood- 80%
    Law & Order: SVU- 100%
    Parks And Rec.- 100%
    The Office- 100%.

  • Tommy Mickens

    @Bill Gorman

    Aren’t you going to say thank you to me posting predictions when you said I wouldn’t? :D

  • Mike

    Scenario: NBC gives Community & PandR half season pickups

    **Later, Fall 2012 seasons.**

    NBC pilots tank week by week in the ratings. Each show gets pulled quicker than the speed of light.

    In the end, NBC cancels them all & gives full orders to Community/Parks and Rec

  • Justin121

    Up All Night: Cancelled 99%

    This year’s Outsourced.

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