NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • DJ Murphy

    From what I’m hearing today was that Deadline’s releasing of Whitney yesterday was a rumored concerned and not true. What was true was that 30 Rock and The Office are coming back to wrap-up their seasons. Community has a decent chance of coming back and Up All Night is up in the air.

    Whitney’s renewal seems to be pended on how many pilots they pickup form what I heard. Whitney is actually in the driver’s seat because one of their multi-cam pilot’s survival is dependent upon Whitney’s renewal.

    I would love for NBC to bring back Chelsea but that seems to be dream thinking right now.

  • Ultima

    @DJ Murphy
    From what I’m hearing today was that Deadline’s releasing of Whitney yesterday was a rumored concerned and not true.

    Bah. My 10% renewal guess was based entirely on the Deadline article. I had it at 75% or so last week.

  • Next Level

    I WANT WHITNEY BACK NBC!

  • Survivor Fan

    @ Next Level
    I agree with you and disagree with the critics. Renew Whitney for a second season!

  • Kacey

    I must have missed this at some point, but why is Up All Night considered to be in more danger than Whitney when Up All Night has the higher Index?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I must have missed this at some point, but why is Up All Night considered to be in more danger than Whitney when Up All Night has the higher Index?”

    The Index is an average since Jan 1, however UAN most recent ratings were below Whitney’s, so I judged it less likely to be renewed for that reason.

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    @Justin121

    Up All Night may, indeed, be this years Outsourced, but NBC made a horrible decision in cancelling Outsourced, considering its performance through the entire season and the ugly facts of this season. It would have done better than two or three of the shows that will be renewed this year. So, yeah… they screwed up with that call.

  • c. clark

    I like Harry’s Law….the other shows such as whitney,30 rock,parenthood,the office are all extremely boring shows. The people who watch boring crap like that may have extremely boring and silly lives such as the stupidity performed on those shows. NBC need solid mature shows like Harry’s Law. What are those idiots that want Harry’s Law removed thinking? Obviously they can’t think…..they’re idiots…and so are the people who watch the office and 30rock…and the other stupid- rediculous shows that are being renewed.

  • Jenny

    What is NBC going to do now that The Voice kept dropping in the ratings all year?

    Tonight’s finale was Terrible!

    Way too drawn out, way too much boring filler, and the woman doing the interviews was so bad it was hard to watch.

    Plus yesterday show with last year’s final four proves the show does not have contestant’s talent to be stars.

    Today’s final four, only Juliet with the talent to be a star and she did not win.

    Also for a show called The Voice, there was a lot of lip syncing in tonight’s final.

    I predict The Voice will be The Flop next year.

  • Reese

    Have you seen Up All Night’s ratings? Their terrible as Whitney is their second highest rated comedy.

  • jake

    I’d love a full apology when harry’s law does get renewed. NBC cannot afford to lose any show that brings in this many viewers, even if they are the so called wrong viewers.

  • forg

    I would believe that NBC can renew Harry’s Law if they have not scheduled it so poorly this season. 9 pm on ultra-competitive Wednesdays? Sundays at 8pm? It always felt like the show was just there to plug in holes or cannon fodder. The show did OK on its first season when it was on at 10 pm, maybe they should have left it at 10 pm where at least those 50-54 viewers they have a lot of are desirable for the affiliates’ newscasts. I don’t think it will make strong case for renewal but at least they have a card to play.

    It’s such a shame NBC wasted The Voice Tuesdays lead in for Fashion Star. Awake should have been there or at least ordered more episodes of Parenthood.

    NBC is picking a lot of sitcoms again and if all 4 current Thursday sitcoms are renewed, how will they schedule them? What they did this year with all the sitcom shuffling didn’t work and didn’t produce a hit at all.If that’s the case they year they will struggle yet again.

  • toadytoady

    Harrys Law writer, David Kelley is already contracted to another network developing a show…see deadline for information.

    No public declaration to renew Kathy Bates contract like they did for Mariska Hargitay…so these facts suggest NBC arent interested in another year.

    Besides quality of season 2 was not as high as season 1.

  • Sarah

    Just got word, Harry’s Law WILL be renewed. :)

  • @scl2

    Bent 0%
    Harry’s Law 10%
    Awake 0%
    Are You There, Chelsea? 10%
    Up All Night 49%
    Whitney 51%
    30 Rock 100%
    Community 100%
    Parenthood 100%
    Law & Order: SVU 100%
    Parks & Recreation 100%
    The Office 100%

  • Patrick G.

    “Awake” sadly deserves the cancellation it will surely get. I had such high hopes for this drama; the concept was so interesting, but that “hook” ended up being back-burnered so the series could just become a typical, run-of-the-mill cop show? How hugely disappointing!! Creator Kyle Killen blew a HUGE opportunity with this show and should have kept the focus on the dual dreams of its main character. I ended up fast-forwarding through each episode’s crime crap just to watch the scant few minutes revolving around his son, wife, and their stories, while the rest of America just tuned out entirely. Such a huge waste :(

  • SJ

    Possible NBC 2012-2013 schedule:

    Monday

    8pm-10pm The Voice
    10pm New Drama

    Tuesday (August launch)

    8pm The Biggest Loser
    9pm New Drama / November: The Voice Results
    10pm Parenthood / mid-season Smash

    Wednesday

    8pm Whitney
    8:30pm New Multi-Cam
    9pm The Office
    9:30pm Parks and Recreation / mid-season The Farm
    10pm Law and Order: SVU

    Thursday (August launch)

    8pm Go On
    8:30pm Save Me
    9pm The New Normal
    9:30pm 1600 Penn
    10pm Revolution

    Friday

    8pm Community
    8:30pm 30 Rock (mid-season 8pm-9pm WDYTYA)
    9pm Grimm
    10pm Dateline NBC

    Sunday post-football

    7pm Dateline NBC
    8pm-10pm Celebrity Apprentice
    10pm New Drama

    Up All Night, Animal Practice, possibly Off Their Rockers mid-season.

  • Amanda

    I love parenthood! I’m glad things look good. We need to keep Lauren Graham on Tv!

  • Sheena

    I came into this thinking, Awake does not deserve to get cancelled. I love the concept, the idea of a man’s psychology preventing him from accepting death. I am not a big fan of cop-shows, and this show made me forget it was a cop-show. I always loved the interactions with the therapists. So, before I read through the comments, I thought, “Why is everyone so sure this show will get cancelled?” And then I read:

    ““Awake” sadly deserves the cancellation it will surely get. I had such high hopes for this drama; the concept was so interesting, but that “hook” ended up being back-burnered so the series could just become a typical, run-of-the-mill cop show? How hugely disappointing!! Creator Kyle Killen blew a HUGE opportunity with this show and should have kept the focus on the dual dreams of its main character.”

    And being that “Awake” (and “Touch”) are my favorite new dramas, it pains me to say that Patrick is right. What made this show powerful to me is that it was more than just a “who done it”. It did something I had never seen before. It took me into the depths of a man’s denial of his grief. And I feel like the show is trying to edge it’s way out of the amazing concept and turning into another cop-show. I may be wrong, but I haven’t even seen the therapists in the last couple of episodes. And some episodes only focused on one reality. Which in it of itself, removes the premise. And when the conspiracy thing came up, I thought…really, do we have to go there? Maybe it will be worth it, though. Then it became about drugs. Is it always about dirty cops and drugs?

    As unlikely as it is, I want Awake to be given another chance. I know it won’t. Not another network pickup, or a last second renewal. It will die. Which is sad, because, red-reality, or blue-reality… the actual reality is… it could have been more.
    (And yes, in the end, it is only television, I know)

    Do the cancellation bears give good hugs? I could use one.

    (Sorry for the newbie rambling)

  • Oliver

    All new NBC comedies up against established CBS comedies on Thursday? The Office up against Modern Family? Young-skewing comedies on Friday?

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