NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Pete

    @Jenny

    The Voice should go for one cycle only next season. It is a ratings magnet, but there is a danger of over-exploiting it. Look at Fox – The X Factor and American Idol are canceling each other. The Voice’s ratings will fall maybe to low 3s.

  • jasterisk

    I’ve been saying it for a while now. I don’t think Whitney has a chance but that show got much better toward the end and I really enjoy it. I hope it does get picked up but I give it 1% tops.

  • Ultima

    @jake
    NBC cannot afford to lose any show that brings in this many viewers, even if they are the so called wrong viewers.

    I can’t afford to stop volunteering, I have bills to pay.

  • Pete

    @SJ

    Wednesday and Thursday’s lineups are problematic.

    Wednesday: NBC has developed a comedy block on Wednesday this season, but that doesn’t mean it should be expanded to 2 hours. Wednesdays are way too competitive – even The Office won’t do well. And there is no word on the fate of Whitney yet, so I doubt there will still be 1-hour multi-cam comedy block next season.

    Thursday: ABC did this before back in 2009 – launching 4 all-new comedies followed by 1 freshman drama on Wednesday. It’s successful for ABC, partly because Modern Family is a strong anchor, and partly because CBS has got weak sitcoms on Wednesday.

    NBC’s situation is much different. There’s no guarantee that they can find
    a smash hit like Modern Family, and with the presence of TBBT, it won’t be easy to compete with CBS.

    That’s why I suggest developing comedies on Sundays. Given that ABC, Fox, and CBS have no sitcoms on Sundays, NBC should invest more heavily in Sundays.

  • Riff Rafferty

    I don’t have the heart to give a prediction of “Whitney” based on what’s going around.

    THE VOICE – 100% – Boy, this one sure got old fast, didn’t it?
    THE OFFICE – 100% – Isn’t it wonderful that a show can plummet in the ratings 30% year to year, have its entire fanbase beg for it to just end already, and NBC is such a complete mess in prime-time that they can’t even entertain the thought of putting it down.
    PARKS AND RECREATION – 100% – NBC needs another season. They have designs on pairing this with “The Office” in broadcast syndication. And the Peabody. And it’s not as crappy as their other Thursday atrocities.
    THE BIGGEST LOSER – 100% – NBC can’t afford to lose it. Besides, it’s not like they’re going to cease broadcasting their own autiobiography.
    THE CELEBRITY APPRENTICE – 100% – Hopefully, the show can recover from the putrid currently-airing rainbow agenda season and its totally-worthless winner (whichever one it is). Celebs who actually want to be there might help.
    DATELINE – 100% – I think this is the only primetime show NBC is actually making money on at this point.
    HARRY’S LAW – 80% – Yeah, let’s have more shows on NBC that get a 2 rating and a 3 share in HH and 3 million viewers. That is exactly what the ailing peacock needs more of.
    LAW & ORDER: SVU – 80% – It deserves a victory lap. But, man, is it about 5 years past its expiration date.
    PARENTHOOD – 80% – Yes, it’s still on. No, it’s still not 1/100th as good as the movie.
    30 ROCK – 75% – Please put it out of its misery next year. Or this year. I don’t even really care anymore.
    COMMUNITY – 70% – Four seasons and a “F#ck you” puppet show in a fat alcoholic’s backyard!
    ROCK CENTER WITH BRIAN WILLIAMS – 66 2/3% – NBC is retooling this. It’s returning as “Republican Debate Center with Brian Williams”
    WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE? – 55% – I think this is a good show to have in your back pocket with a smallish order. I don’t know that it’s gonna get that though.
    BETTY WHITE’S OFF THEIR ROCKERS – 33 1/3% – And don’t miss NBC’s next exciting venture with the former “Golden Girls” star, “Betty White’s Worked to Death”.
    THE SING-OFF – 25% – If NBC cancelled this they should uncancel it. The show was picking up the “Dancing with the Stars” crowd the first 2 years it was on. So what do the NBC rocket scientists do? Put it on opposite “Dancing with the Stars.” Of course. Also, it’s the ideal bridge between the “Voice” cycles — and you need to have a bit of a break in between them (a la “Dancing with the Stars”) so absence can make the heart grow fonder.
    FASHION STAR – 15% – Unfortunately, NBC was forced to cancel this after the show caused seizures in Japanese children.
    UP ALL NIGHT – 10% – Sorry, guys, NBC only renews their Thursday s#itbombs based on whichever irritating fanbase pisses and moans the loudest and whatever makes snobby, out-of-touch, irrelevant critics cheer “SMART!” the most.
    FEAR FACTOR – 0% – Thanks, TMZ. Much appreciated.
    ARE YOU THERE, CHELSEA? – 0% – Are You There, Nielsen? It’s Me, Cancellation
    AWAKE – 0% – I’m pretty sure the only viewers being recorded as still watching this this are not the show’s title. They fell asleep during “The Office.”
    THE FIRM – 0% on NBC, 20% internationally – Let’s firmly close the book on this one, thanks.
    BEST FRIENDS FOREVER – 0% – Yeah, forever. Or you know, for four weeks. Whichever comes first.
    BENT – 0% – Can you help this? It’s Bent. It’s so scared it’ll never get put back together.
    WHO’S STILL STANDING? – 0% – Apparently not this show! Gee, here I would have guessed NBC would have renewed it for another December run considering it was their most-watched program of the week once but I guess not since it’s nowhere to be found on their website.
    ESCAPE ROUTES – 0% – Jenny and Bobby will take a dozen of these.

  • Ultima

    @Pete
    That’s why I suggest developing comedies on Sundays. Given that ABC, Fox, and CBS have no sitcoms on Sundays, NBC should invest more heavily in Sundays.

    FOX has their animated comedies on Sunday. Also, launching new shows in January or February on Sunday is very rough due to the NFL postseason and award shows.

  • Pete

    @Ultima

    Fox has Animation Domination, but compared with ABC and CBS comedies on Wednesdays and Thursdays, it is not really a big deal.

    I agree launching new shows in January will be difficult. But NBC can put veteran sitcoms like 30 Rock and Community there first, and see how they perform. If they are doing fine then NBC can try one or two other sitcoms in spring. (30 Rock and Community also have shortened orders, so they’re perfect for being on Sundays)

    Besides, if everything they’ve tried on Sunday fails, NBC can at least start all over again after the next football season.

  • Ultima

    @SJ
    Tuesday (August launch)
    8pm The Biggest Loser
    9pm New Drama / November: The Voice Results
    10pm Parenthood / mid-season Smash

    I can’t see NBC squeezing in a new drama in that timeslot. They would have to cut back Biggest Loser to one hour for the entire season and still not have enough space to schedule a 13 episode series there (AGT finale, election night, Voice results start week 14).

    This is much more likely…
    Aug/Sep – AGT (recap), AGT (results), drama
    Sep/Oct – Biggest Loser (2 hrs), drama
    Nov/Dec – Biggest Loser, Voice (results), drama

    I wouldn’t be suprised if they decide to leave Grimm in that slot and premiere it in August.

    8pm Go On
    8:30pm Save Me
    9pm The New Normal
    9:30pm 1600 Penn
    10pm Revolution

    The Thursday 10pm drama will likely be a normal premiere because Saving Hope is scheduled to run up until the start of the season in that timeslot. Also, as has been mentioned, four new sitcoms going up against CBS seems extremely risky.

    I also don’t think that NBC will have five hours of comedies on in the fall. They are picking a lot of them up, but with the early starts, even 12-14 comedies (with 3-5 getting full season orders) only supports 3 hours of comedies for the full season if they run repeat light again.

    I’m thinking four hours of Mon/Tues reality, three hours of Wed/Thu comedy, six dramas (Mon 10, Tue 10, Wed 9, Wed 10, Thu 10, Fri 8 or 9) and then Dateline and something unscripted to fill out Friday. If they add a fourth hour of comedy in, that pushes the sixth drama to Friday, which isn’t unreasonable.

  • Carigis

    I hope UAN is cancelled. Will arnett is awesome but not in this show. I can’t sit through 10 min of this annoying show. What a waste. And Chelsea is another horrible show. Whitney is ok… Much better then the other two.. But if its cancelled I won’t lose sleep.

  • Steve

    @ Sarah

    Where did you hear this?????????????

    Just got word, Harry’s Law WILL be renewed.

  • New_AMZ

    I’m not so sure that SVU will be renewd because there is Chicago Fire that could be the show of Dick Wolf for next season.
    I’m so sorry that “Harry’s Law” will not renewd. Maybe if it returns on wednedsday at 8 PM, before SVU and Chicago Fire ,could be the safe of Wolf’shows and itself.

  • Tabitha

    Bent 0%
    Harry’s Law 0%
    Awake 0%
    Are You There, Chelsea? 10%
    Up All Night 10%
    Whitney 10%
    30 Rock 95%
    Community 95%
    Parenthood 95%
    Law & Order: SVU 100%
    Parks & Recreation 100%
    The Office 100%

  • steve

    @ ULTIMA

    Harry’s Law is NBC’s 2nd highest rated show in viewers behind The Voice. IF NBC keeps it and puts it on after Grimm on Friday nights at 10pm they will get 7-9 million viewers on a night many don’t even watch TV.

    I say go with what you know to give you an audience on your network. NBC can’t afford to alienate viewers, even if 50+.

  • Sarah

    Steve, can’t tell but it will be confirmed today or tomorrow. And there’s another show that according to TVBTN is certain to be cancelled but won’t. ;)

  • TerryJacksonNYC

    I love reading comments from fans of one show that denigrate fans of another’s. It’s particularly interesting when all of the shows mentioned are on the same network. It almost borders on insanity, actually.

    I watch and love Harry’s Law, Community AND 30 Rock (as well as most of NBC’s Thursday comedies). So, am I an idiot for liking the comedies or smart for liking the drama? Or maybe, to some people, it’s the other way around?

    To me, responding to this idea feels idiotic, but I read it so often in so many forms that I just couldn’t help myself. Besides, the season is ending and I won’t have the opportunity for another year.

    The idea that some people are able to base someone’s intelligence (inferred by use of the word “idiot”) on the TV they watch is ludicrous. In fact, anybody doing this is lacking in the intelligence department.

    If we are going to base intelligence on the media one enjoys, we should probably include literature first, news second and music (both listening – with all styles impacting learning elasticity – and playing) third. There are others, but TV viewing cannot serve as a litmus test as to anybody’s worth.

    Passive watching of a TV program shouldn’t be even in the top ten of what makes someone intelligent; in fact, since it is has been proven to lower IQ and metabolism, it shouldn’t be on the list at all. We have enough stupid and fat people.

    TV viewing isn’t even a hobby (though following ratings is); it’s a way to decompress from everything that actually matters in our personal lives and collective world. And that’s all it is. It serves a purpose, but anybody who puts more worth into it than that is unqualified to judge others.

    (Anybody who is familiar with my writing will realize that I used short paragraphs in opposition to my typically verbose style of writing. This is because I needed to be very clear. But it’s also because such clarity is likely beyond the reach of too many people.)

  • Jenny

    @ Pete “@Jenny The Voice should go for one cycle only next season. It is a ratings magnet, but there is a danger of over-exploiting it. Look at Fox – The X Factor and American Idol are canceling each other. The Voice’s ratings will fall maybe to low 3s”

    You are correct Pete. All these talent shows are just producing oversaturation and they are killing each other’s ratings and viewers. I am predicting Americas Got Talent to start of well because of the curiosity factor with Howard Stern (but only a 4.0 rating) and it will continue to have big drops.

    Curious that for all the seasons of a lot of Talent shows, only a few stars have resulted.

    “ And the winner of ‘The Voice’ is … Disappointment. Despite consistently strong performances, iTunes domination, (winning all online polls by a large margin) and strong buzz, neither Juliet Simms nor Tony Lucca were crowned the season 2 winner. Instead, the title went to Jermaine Paul”

    What is NBC going to do now that The Voice kept dropping in the ratings all year?
    Tonight’s finale was Terrible!
    Way too drawn out, way too much boring filler and the woman doing the interviews was so bad it was hard to watch.
    Plus yesterday show with last year’s final four proves the show does not have contestant’s talent to be stars.
    Today’s final four, only Juliet with the talent to be a star and she did not win.
    Juliet, Tony and Jesse Campbell where the only 3 with the power to become stars.
    And Christina turned off a lot of viewers with her constant attacks on Tony; it was disgusting and uncalled for.
    Also for a show called The Voice, there was a lot of lip syncing in tonight’s final.
    I predict The Voice will be The Flop next year.

  • Ultima

    @steve
    NBC can’t afford to alienate viewers, even if 50+.

    And I can’t afford to stop volunteering, I have bills to pay!

  • Brian

    My percentages:

    The Office 98 percent
    Parks and Rec 90 percent
    Community 80 percent (if any of them went, it would be this one)
    Law and Order SVU 85 percent
    Parenthood 70 percent (more on demo than on ratings)
    Whitney 55 percent (E is owned by same company that owns NBC, so she may pull double duty)
    Up All Night 30 percent (too many chances)
    Harry’s Law 60 percent (upset special, anyone remember Murder She Wrote?)
    Awake, Bent, Chelsea 0 percent

  • Babs

    Absolutely LOVE Awake — every year atleast one of my favorites gets cancelled — Lost, Heroes, etc. Pretty soon I will be watching nothing but cable.

  • Matthew Chapman

    News just in-Law & Order SVU has been renewed-https://twitter.com/#!/druidDUDE/status/200232355766611969

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