NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Matthew Chapman

    Ignore that last comment as it had the wrong link in it-Here’s the correct one-http://tvline.com/2012/05/09/law-order-svu-chicago-fire-picked-up-fall-2012-nbc/

  • Holly

    @Matthew Chapman,

    Or, you know, they could just go to the article here on TV by the Numbers…

  • Adam Decker

    If they stick with just the ratings, everything mentioned from Grimm to The Office should get renewed and everything else should get cancelled. But, there is more to the business than just ratings that we’ll never know about.

  • Naemeth

    SVU has been renewed, Bill/Robert, you were both right ;) (No surprise really)

  • Jenny

    from http://www.tmz.com/2012/05/09/dale-godboldo-christina-aguilera-tony-lucca-mickey-mouse-club/

    Ex-Mickey Mouse Clubber
    Christina Was in LOVE
    with Tony Lucca

    Christina Aguilera has it out for Tony Lucca on “The Voice” because he spurned her while they worked on The Mickey Mouse Club — this according to a former Mouseketeer.
    Ex-Mouse Clubber Dale Godboldo — who starred on the 90s MMC revival alongside Aguilera and Lucca — tells TMZ, Tony was pretty popular in his Disney days

  • Duarte (portugal)

    Crying for Awake.
    The only good show on NBC

  • John A

    Im still amazed how HL got a full season. Id understand a 13 ep run and then axed but it got 22 eps some below a 1.0. Not even episode order cut.

  • Bob

    @John A,
    The reason Harry’s Law didn’t get cut is because it is the only worthwhile show on NBC that gets people to sit and watch TV. Thursday Night should be completely cancelled and started over. A disgrace that was home to Friends, Seinfeld, Family Ties, Cosby Show….NBC completely destroyed Thursday Nights.

  • KJ Styles

    @Lord Seth- Mike Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser are the host’s of ESPN’s Pardon The Interruption. Which is what inspired Bill and Robert’s “Oddsmakers” predictions.

  • Bradley

    @Bob

    Networks have hot and cold cycles all the time. No network will stay on top forever. It’s not how the game works. To say that NBC destroyed Thursday night and the memory of shows like Friends, Seinfeld, Family Ties, Cosby Show is just ignorant. The quality of the Thursday night lineup is stellar. Absolutely amazing at times. As far as ratings go…well, perhaps NBC should be moving on to other things. But to say that the present shows don’t compare to the past is incorrect. IMHO

  • Greg

    CANCELED
    Bent
    Harry’s Law
    Awake
    Are You There, Chelsea?
    Up All Night
    Whitney

    RENEWED
    30 Rock
    Community
    Parenthood
    Law & Order: SVU
    Parks & Recreation
    The Office

  • David Howell

    Bent: 0%
    Awake: 0%
    Harry’s Law: 5% (you can’t totally rule out a “we can’t be seen to cancel our most-watched show!” shame-faced renewal from a desperate network!)
    Whitney: 25% (if NBC are going to launch new comedies, and they’re not going to tear apart the Thursday night cult block, where does Whitney fit?)
    UAN: 25% (see above!)
    Chelsea: 0% (by implication from the above)
    Parenthood: 99% (this show has done well enough that both of its 10pm rivals are certain to be canceled. Its successor has done worse with the biggest lead-in on NBC. It’s only 99% because there’s a 1% chance NBC are still stupid enough to cancel it!)
    Community: 100% (the syndication deal was a de facto renewal announcement, and it could have gotten CW numbers and still been renewed)
    30 Rock: 70% (it’s failed in syndication, NBC need new slots, the only case for renewal is that its cult following would demand a final season)

  • The End

    @Bob

    Worthwhile is a matter of opinion. If Harry’s Laws replacement show hits say a 4.5 million, 1.6 demo, that would be a huge improvement over the Harry’s Law numbers as far as advertising revenue goes.

  • jazz

    i heard the office cast was having problems with renewing their contracts. sort of like friends did before its last season. if thats true Bill then how come you have it at 100%?

  • davie

    I watch nothing on NBC (with Chuck gone) so these are just guesses.

    Harry’s Law- canceled
    Awake- canceled
    Chelsea- canceled
    Whitney- canceled
    Community- Renewed for 13 option for back 9
    30 Rock- Renewed for Final 13
    The Office-Renewed for Final 13
    Parks& Rec-Renewed for 13 option for back 9
    Up All Night- canceled

  • The End

    @jazz

    Money, money and money. Any problems can be sorted with money, a network wants to keep the show, actor that is considering his or her future on said show stalls contract talks, money gets thrown at them, they go OMFG *Signs contract*. Repeat and watch said show get renewed.

    Basically depends on how much a network wants to keep a show.

  • ajl

    At this point the only uncertainty comes down to Whitney and Up All Night.

    UAN- canceled. Sorry. I don’t see this show getting any bigger. The cast and the writing is too lackluster. Will Arnett is only funny as GOB.

    Whitney – renewed w/ a short order. Held its own on Wednesday. I think NBC wants to keep around at least 1 multi-cam comedy.

  • Mr Mumble

    @jazz

    Bill “House MD is certain to be renewed” Gorman doesn’t concern himself with the realities of actor contracts. ;)

  • Megan

    I have always been a fan of svu.. And have watched awake since day one. That’s going to be a hard one to say goodbye to

  • Angela

    I originally came here to see predictions about Parenthood (the best show ever) but I am now disappointed to see that I am the only one who enjoyed watching UAN. I thought it was much funnier than Whitney.

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