NBC: Final Guesses For 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Up All Night,' 'Parenthood,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: 2-Featured,Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 8th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2012 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

5/9 Update: Law & Order: SVU has been renewed.

5/10 Update: Parenthood & 30 Rock have both been renewed. Also, Community has been renewed.

5/11 Update: Parks & Recreation, Whitney, Up All Night and The Office have been renewed.

5/11 Update (2): Awake, Are You There Chelsea?, Best Friends Forever & Bent have been canceled.

5/11 Update (3): Harry's Law has been canceled.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

Program Bill Robert
Bent 0% 0%
Harry's Law 0% 0%
Awake 0% 0%
Are You There, Chelsea? 25% 25%
Up All Night 55% 51%
Whitney 65% 51%
30 Rock 95% 100%
Community 95% 90%
Parenthood 95% 95%
Law & Order: SVU 100% 100%
Parks & Recreation 100% 100%
The Office 100% 100%

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As I was finishing this up yesterday, NBC was getting out in front of me with the news of a final season for 30 Rock.

No significant difference in Robert's and my predictions for NBC shows, but one thing you can be certain of is that once the fate of Harry's Law is confirmed, you'll hear from the cancellation bear, there is, shall we say, some history between the show and the bear.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 6, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* :oops: 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
Harry's Law :oops: 0.61
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake :oops: 0.74
Are You There, Chelsea?* :cry: :cry: 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.93
Whitney* :) :) :) :) 0.96
30 Rock :) :) :) :) 0.98
Community :) :) :) :) 0.98
Parenthood* :) :) :) :) 1.00
Up All Night* :| :| :| 1.01
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.10
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Smash renewed 1.48
The Office :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.58

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The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • mark

    yay parenthood is most likely to get renewed, its a awesome show still sad that alcatraz was canceled but at least touch gets a new season

  • DZ

    Whitney is a fantastic show that keeps me laughing every week. Its like a hipper, cooler, more up to date Roseanne show with more up to date problems that dating and married couples come across. This show needs to be renewed, they deserve a second season

  • Riff Rafferty

    Worthwhile is a matter of opinion. If Harry’s Laws replacement show hits say a 4.5 million, 1.6 demo, that would be a huge improvement over the Harry’s Law numbers as far as advertising revenue goes.

    First off, NBC isn’t going to get a 1.6 Sundays 8:00 except when football and the Globes and the occasional bloated 3-hour “Celeb Apprentice” are on. They’ve had serious problems in that hour for decades. Second off, if the entire viewership in that 1.6 is low-income households, then not necessarily. This may come as a shock but companies advertising high-end product do not care to reach low-income households that can’t afford the product. Hell, if the advertisers don’t like that show getting a 1.6, it may not even stay on the air at all. Besides, while the bulk of primetime broadcast advertising is sold based on 18-49 (and the various breakdowns therein), not all of it is. It’s true that most of the people on Madison Ave. are more set in their ways than they believe the 55+ crowd to be, but there is the occasional company that gets it. The one that values the affluent, boomer viewer. Some of us are smart enough to realize that older people — shock, horrors — buy gifts for their kids, their nieces, their nephews and grandchildren. Finally, NBC made a plea to us a year ago about this very same subject and if they’re not going to put their money where their mouth is then I’m going to call them out for the liars that they are. A semi-wise man once said that “quality transcends demographics.” I believe he currently runs the #1 network. I believe NBC used to be the #1 network but it’s been so long who can remember anymore.

    Whatever happens with “Harry’s Law,” it is an inspirational show that tells great stories and makes you think, and I’m extremely proud of its creative growth this year. And NBC should be extremely proud to have it. While everything else on their network keeps getting worse and worse creatively, this one keeps getting better and better. And that? That transcends everything.

  • DP

    All of the up and down over Whitney just proves they need to keep it around…NBC needs the buzz!

  • Mickey

    More detailed description of the new JJ Abrams/Eric Kripke series NBC just picked up, Revolution. Sounds super interesting! And I can’t wait to see what the combined minds of the creators of Fringe and Supernatural can cook up.

    I just realized looking at the list above that I don’t watch a single show on NBC. That’s definitely going to change once Revolution starts.

    http://www.supernaturalwiki.com/index.php?title=Revolution

  • Awoken

    Too bad about Awake. Great show.. bad promotion.

  • Jess

    just saw on another blog that NBC is giving 13 episode sendoffs to 30 Rock, Parks and Rec, and Community. NBC dumping not quite as fast as the CW though.

  • Rebecca

    @Angela
    No, you’re not the only one. I enjoyed UAN, too. I’ve seen others say they enjoyed it, too – just maybe not this week (in the threads). I’ll keep watching if it returns, but if it doesn’t I won’t be too sad about it. (I don’t mourn the loss of shows any more like I did with Outsourced, Chuck, etc.) I kind of hope Will Arnett will go back to The Office (he was up for Michael Scott’s job and was in one episode a season ago). But if he doesn’t, maybe Arrested Development will start filming again soon for Netflix.

  • Rebecca

    @Jess
    You mean a final season for Parks & Rec? Not just a renewal? Where did you see this? I can believe final seasons (send offs) for 30R and Community (even for The Office if it came to that), but not P&R.

  • Jess

    @Rebecca Yes, final half seasons for all 3. Its all a buzz on twitter right now. Saw a link earlier to a blog. But nothing has officially been confirmed.

  • Matthew Chapman

    2 more renewals-Parenthood Has been renewed whilst 30 Rock has been renewed for a final 13 episode season-http://tvline.com/2012/05/10/parenthood-renewed/

    Link for 30 Rock annoucement to follow.

  • Montecore

    Why bother anymore since TV keeps corny shows like community and office while they let shows like Prime Suspect get canceled! Not to mention all of the stupid reality shows they keep hanging around like outdated aspirin bottles.

  • Sheena

    Maybe someone can explain to me how these networks work. Do shows/producers pitch to more than one network? Because NBC seems to be cancelling a lot of shows and having a lot of bad luck lately. It also seems like the different networks have different tastes in regards to their shows (save the whole “Glass House”/ “Big brother” and instances like that).

    I am new to the whole “Looking at the numbers” thing, so I am sure that factors in.

    Any new buzz about the fate of Awake?

  • Holly

    @Sheena,

    It varies, but generally speaking writers/producers will shop an idea or script to a few networks (depending on responses, interest, talent deals, etc.). Once it’s ordered to pilot, it’s generally for a particular network. That network then has the choice of picking it up or passing on it. If they pass on it, the production company can shop it to other nets, but the vast majority of the time, it’s considered dead.

    Some shows do fit better on some networks, so if a writer has a primetime soap, they’re more likely to go to ABC than CBS. However, some shows can work on many networks (and therefore are more likely to be shopped around).

  • Sheena

    Holly: Oh okay, that explains a lot. Thanks.

  • Mr Mumble

    Deadline:
    “Whitney and Harry’s Law, both about 50-50.”

    So much for those 18-49 ratings!

  • Nolan

    I am really hoping to see Whitney get the boot. That show is annoying and not funny.

  • Katie

    I love Up All Night. Will Arnet is so funny. Maya makes the show. I hoping it’s not cancelled.

  • Mike

    How many dramas do you think NBC will pick up? Quite alot I presume…

  • selena

    OKAY THANK GOD PARKS AND REC IS BEING RENEWED CAUSE I HEARD IT WASNT GONNA BE.

    AND I LOVE COMMUNITY SO IT BETTER NOT BE CANCELLED.

    HARRYS LAW IS A GOOD SHOW TOO

    WHITNEY CAN GO FOR ALL I CARE

    AGH NBC WHAT IS HAPPENING!?!?

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