'Body Of Proof' Outruns Cancellation Bear In The Renew / Cancel Index's Biggest Prediction Miss This Season

Categories: Broadcast TV

Written By

May 14th, 2012


A few weeks ago I asked our readers to guess what would be the Renew / Cancel Index's biggest prediction goof of the season. (results below)

Harry's Law led by a small margin in the poll over having a likely or certain renewal predicted show get cancelled. We know what happened to Harry's Law, and no show predicted as likely or certain renewal was canceled.

With all the broadcast renewal and cancellation results in for scripted shows (except for final word on Rules of Engagement, which wouldn't be a big miss regardless of what happens), the renewal of Body Of Proof was clearly the biggest miss among my predictions this season.

Body Of Proof didn't run very fast, but it was faster than all the canceled ABC shows, which earned it another season instead of being a meal of the Cancellation Bear.

How did Body Of Proof get renewed with such low ratings relative to the rest of ABC's scripted shows? Not clear to me yet, but if I can figure it out, I'll incorporate that into future year's prediction methods.

Note to whiny/crazy Fringe fans, I had the show predicted as a "toss up" all season. Sure, no guts, no glory, but apparently all the whining from crazy fans!


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Note that Robert's Bubble Watch predictions were similar, but not exactly the same, this was just covering my predictions.

 
  • Cyrax86

    I’m a big fan of the show so I’m glad you got this one wrong!

  • One

    And quite frankly, this only REALLY means the difference between “likely” and “certain” cancellation if you ask me. Maybe it should be acknowledged that BOP was just one of those improbable events that actually happened…

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    How did Body Of Proof get renewed with such low ratings relative to the rest of ABC’s scripted shows? Not clear to me yet, but if I can figure it out, I’ll incorporate that into future year’s prediction methods.

    I’m guessing that ABC wants to keep procedurals on the air, even at a significat loss (as BoP is nowhere near syndication), simply because they don’t want to be known as a netowrk that only has serial dramas and potentially turn off viewers looking for that.

    If they had picked up a procedural pilot (or script?), I think Body of Proof easily gets canceled. This is just to get them to the next development cycle.

    That’s the best I’ve come up with. The renewal still seems ridiculous to me.

  • mattlsax

    I heard BofP made money internationally and that it had a large international audience. Also, like some of you said, if ABC canceled BofP, it would be getting rid of its only procedural medical drama.

  • jerry

    Body of Proof usually pulled in a good number of total viewers compared to the demo. Also the last few shows were doing better than earlier in the season. i knew they wouldn’t cancel it since they produced the show themselves and they may were getting a lot of support for the show from the public.

  • psychic

    Wow. Nobody thought Ringer’d be cancelled. :/

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Body of Proof usually pulled in a good number of total viewers compared to the demo. “

    Oh, please.

  • Justin121

    Even if you had Fringe as Likely Cancellation, Body of Proof would still have been the bigger surprise.

    Usually I take TVBTN predictions over any site, but the ‘rumors’ this time about Body of Proof actaully prepared me for that.

    My Own Personal Biggest Surprises:

    Cougar Town moving to TBS
    Hart of Dixie renewed while The Secret Circle cancelled
    Body of Proof renewed
    Harry’s Law cancelled (worth mentioning Up All Night 2 mil renewed)

    Other surprises of the Season:

    Desperat Housewives holding steady ALL SEASON
    30 Rock falling like a rock
    Hart of Dixie success while Ringer and The Secret Circle flopped — biggest upset of the season
    Revenge, Grimm, Once Upon A Time, Person of Interest

    No NBC show above 2.0 counts as a surprise, too.

  • gregg

    im glad you two were wrong. So BOP was able to take a bite out of you. HAHAHA

  • psychic

    Sorry, I read the poll wrong. I thought it was Ringer that had the low votes, but it was really Unforgettable. Which is also strange, considering that I’m not sure anyone ever assumed it would be renewed.

    Did anyone assume The River would have a chance? You can’t sail around in circles for more than one season. People get tired of it. Even if the acting was good and the story was interesting, where were they going to go with the story?

  • OMG

    I think the last 3 weeks after DWTS really helped BOP’s chances. It showed that BOP can still gain an audience, after being down in the dumps for so long, which is something quite rare.

  • Jonathan

    If I may be of some help as to why you missed the BOP prediction?

    1. I think you were blinded by your apparent dislike of the show. Even when the show shot back up 50% in the demo you still did not change it’s standing.
    2. It does better in the post-DWDS slot than any other shows in recent years.
    3. It’s a big money maker in the foreign markets and that helps ABC who’s studio also produces the show.
    4. It’s a procedural which will sell better than others for syndication.
    5. In over-all viewers it’s still a top 20 show.
    6. It’s not a very expensive show to produce
    7. You underestimated the appeal of stars Dana Delaney and Jeri Ryan

  • LLL

    I think the reason why BOP was renewed is for backup purposes. If one of their new show were to bomb in the ratings BOP can easily take their place thanks to their loyal fanbase.

    @justin121
    I thought HOD and Revenge would be DOA and Ringer/Secret Circle would be renewed for sure. My how things have changed.

  • Raykov

    Maybe it does make money even with these ratings. And if they put it on Fridays where it could stay at its 1.2 ratings – this would make ABC happy. But still a little surprised they renewed it over GCB

  • Agnes

    My speculation on why ABC renewed it:

    1. If you strip out the weeks where it aired out of “The River”, it was very constant in its ratings of 1.8 – 2.0 from start to end of the season http://www.spottedratings.com/2011/09/spotvault-body-of-proof-abc-2011-12.html
    When viewed on that basis, it was in line with Scandal and that got renewed (ignoring Shonda factor)

    2. Private Practice proved not many other shows will do better than BOP in that time slot anyway

  • giffey

    As I mentioned before, Body of Proof is wildly popular overseas, so ABC renewed it mainly for new episodes to run overseas. I am so thankful, it is my favorite show on TV right now.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “1. I think you were blinded by your apparent dislike of the show. Even when the show shot back up 50% in the demo you still did not change it’s standing.
    2. It does better in the post-DWDS slot than any other shows in recent years.
    3. It’s a big money maker in the foreign markets and that helps ABC who’s studio also produces the show.
    4. It’s a procedural which will sell better than others for syndication.
    5. In over-all viewers it’s still a top 20 show.
    6. It’s not a very expensive show to produce
    7. You underestimated the appeal of stars Dana Delaney and Jeri Ryan”

    1. Never seen the show. Fans think we hate shows, just because of the predictions, which is silly. The late ratings increase post_DWTS *could* have been the saving grace. Sadly, there is so little data on “shows that recover late in the season” that I’m not sure that is usable to us, but it’s worth thinking about.
    2. Very hard to test for that given that broadcast ratings overall are in near continuous decline overall.
    3. May be true, may not be. Impossible to get good public data. Fans who spout that claim don’t know either.
    4. Syndication could have been a factor, what happens in the *future* may or may not confirm that. Problem is, we can’t predict based on *future* events, and the “procedurals get renewed over serials” is effectively untestable based on very limited data.
    5. Completely meaningless.
    6. It’s cost is probably typical of a 2nd year scripted broadcast drama. Any claim that it’s a lot more expensive or cheaper than similar shows is probably just made up.
    7. Every cancelled show has some star that’s popular to someone.

  • Chris L

    I wonder if the upticks for BoP in its last weeks (when DWTS returned) influenced ABC’s decision. Otherwise, I’m guessing it’s the hidden figures like international sales or personal appeal of Dana Delany that saved the show.

  • Matheus

    Maybe Body of Proof was saved because it was at 10? Then ABC didn’t think any of their pilots would rate better at 10… (After DWTS, BoP had a 1.9 and 2.0, I think).
    Sorry if anyone already said this, I didn’t read the comments

  • Marsinvestigations1

    I wasn’t really surprised. It did poorly middle of the year but trended up by the end of the run.

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