CW Renew/Cancel Wrap: 'The Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' Canceled; 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Gossip Girl' Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 15th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 13, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex canceled 0.40
Ringer* canceled 0.68
Nikita (F) renewed 0.69
Gossip Girl  renewed 0.82
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.84
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle canceled 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.09
Vampire Diaries  renewed 1.83

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After having them as "toss ups" for renewal or cancellation for most of the year, I predicted cancellation for both Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, and blew both those calls. After being moved to a "toss up" late in the season, I predicted that The Secret Circle would be renewed, and blew that call too. Props to Robert who called both Hart Of Dixie and The Secret Circle correctly, and missed only Nikita.

My guess is that the late season swoon by The Secret Circle killed it, and I have so little experience with shows that have ratings dives late, I was unable to take it fully into account.

5/18 Update: As expected, The L.A. Complex was nowhere to be found on the CW 2012-13 schedule. It will never air during the US broadcast season again. It will live on in Canada, and wouldn't stun me if it aired during the summer in the US, but we will have to wait and see.

While I did get all the other CW show final predictions correct, there are so few of them that's like saying I lost my thumb and index finger, but the rest of my hand was fine. As a network, the CW proved to be collectively my worst predicted this season by a wide margin. Ouch!

With that the Index bids the 2011-12 CW season adieu, there will be no more CW Renew / Cancel posts until September. Happy summer CW!

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dahne

    All I can say is I hope the new shows do better on the CW next season than they have the previous two seasons. Good news is they can’t do much worse. I have high hopes for Arrow, although I’m not a big “based-on-the-comic” fan these days, and Cult. I was looking forward to Beauty and the Beast but Kristin Kruek as a lead dashed that. The Carrie Diaries and First Cut were a no go from the pilot synopsis for me but I wish them well. After all the CW needs to stay on air for at least 3 more seasons.

  • Contrarian

    @Tom

    More like the eleventh hour ratings slide, like Hellcats last year. Last few weeks before the finale it was pulling .5s, at least the site powers that be will say it’s the more rational explanation than retention.

  • KS

    @Tom

    Have you forgotten about Netflix, Hulu and international sales?

    Why do you guys, talk as if there is no other source of income other than from advertisers? I am not trying to argue with you. But I really want to know – why do you ignore other sources of income all the time? Also, I am not buying the syndication story. That might be one of the reasons, but not the only reason to renew a show with pathetic ratings. I believe the other sources of income also has to do something with renewal.

  • enes

    @suzie
    It is a crap i started the show as a fan of rachel bilson and it was horrible i have seen the all 22 episode i mean boring characters and boring storylines i mean an entire season based in a secret kiss is stupid

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The second season is supposed to start in July in Canada. I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if the CW picks it up to air simultaneously with the Canadian airings. They could push back the premiere of another show (maybe 90210?) to October and then have less repeats of it in the spring.”

    You’re right. I have added the note that summer airing on the CW would not surprise me. Nothing that happens in the summer surprises me.

  • Sid

    “ino it’s on a friday but i mean supernatural is able to pull in 0.7?s…”

    SPN is able to pull a 0.7 on Fridays, but TSC can barely pull a 0.6/0.5 on Thursdays. CW made the right decision because it would’ve done worse on Friday this Fall.

    Besides that, CW needs to shift its focus and stay away from the teen dramas. Granted they picked up The Carrie Diaries, it has a huge franchise running behind it so it’s obvious The CW will try to capitalize from that.

    ARROW, CULT, Beauty and the Beast and possibly First Cut along with Hart of Dixie, The Vampire Diaries, NIKITA & Supernatural are all shows that could easily attract a wider demo than the small Women niche demo that they have tried to attract for so long.

    Gossip Girl is coming to a close and as a fan of 9O21O, it’s obvious the show is on its home stretch.

    ANTM is slowly fading but I see The CW giving it a final 20th cycle.

  • enes

    I think The Cw will no longer exist after the 2016 , is not going to be renewed as a network and is not going to be a surprise with all this horrible decisions !

  • KS

    @Bill

    Now that TSC is cancelled, I guess, you gotta use the word retentionista less number of times.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Why do you guys, talk as if there is no other source of income other than from advertisers?”

    Because that money is *tiny* compared to US advertising (and for older shows, potential US syndication) revenue.

    We live in one big, happy interconnected world, but for US TV shows, US ad and syndication revenue calls the shots.

    We’ve written it many times, it is you who fail to acknowledge it.

  • enes

    You people keep using the excuse for TSC that was after TVD and lose viewers well Nikita did the same last year so

  • bob

    they should have canceled nikita and vampire diaries instead, the secret circle and ringer was two fantastic shows

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Now that TSC is cancelled, I guess, you gotta use the word retentionista less number of times.”

    Nonsense.

    TSC late season ratings dive pulled it down to the relative ratings level where Nikita and HoD existed all season. I didn’t think that short term move would kill the show, but it likely did.

    Certainly a problem with me trying to figure out the effects of short term ratings moves near the end of the season on predictions, but legitimizing “retention” as something to consider? No chance.

    “You people keep using the excuse for TSC that was after TVD and lose viewers well Nikita did the same last year so”

    That would be referring to the retentionistas!

  • danny94

    @ Bob cancel the Vampire dairies what have you been smoking???

  • Sid

    @bob

    I’ll have what ever you’re having. I have a massive migraine from this 10 page research paper I just completed.

  • KS

    @Bill

    Then my only reply to that would be TV guys simply doesn’t know how to earn money and make use of viewership.

    ____________________________________________________________________________

    If, Supernatural were, aired in some other country two days before U.S.A., I am sure it ratings would be halved, when it is aired in U.S.A. Because most of the people watch it illegally online or download it through torrents. As a result they lose the live viewers in U.S.A. The exact same thing in happening now, in the opposite way. They are not able to gain live viewers in other countries because it is aired in U.S.A much earlier than in other countries. Why can’t they air it simultaneously at the same time and have live viewers from every part of the globe? I am sure, this will fetch a lot of profit. Local advertisers will pay for the channel airing the respective country and the channel would pay license to WB or CW based on number of viewers in their country. What’s wrong with this type of arrangement. I already asked Bill the same question and he replied “Why can’t money grow on trees?”. That was not the answer I was expecting.

    P.S. If anyone finds any of the above lines offensive, I am sorry. That is because of my poor English. I have typed this post with no intention of offending anyone and with a smile on my face. As a guy who doesn’t have much idea about economics of Television, I am just curious to know what’s wrong with this type of setup.

  • WB

    I hope The CW presents a fresh look andd do better promotion for this upcoming fall season! I think The CW has the most interesting pilots , and they should consider to try their little best to make these shows presentable and give them exposure! To me, the other networks schedule’s sounds dul. I’m surprised about FOX’s schedule woahh haha, they could have done at least better. NBC’s The Revolution sounds interesting, but other than that, The CW’s logo will be on the bottom right hand corner of my television screen primetime lol.

  • Val

    Really, I could have seen Nikita/Hart of Dixie/Secret Circle going either way with renewal/cancellation. I don’t blame you for not guessing them right, it was so hard to predict.

    In my opinion, I agree that TSC late dive killed it. Especially while it was airing after TVD and got a few .5′s HoD stayed pretty steady throughout the spring with the worst lead-in. I think that helped make the decision.

    Now if the CW was deciding between renewing TSC and Nikita, I think they might have looked at it this way: If they cancelled Nikita they would probably move TSC to Fridays. And if it was already getting some .5′s in the best time slot, what would it drop to on Fridays? Even though a .4 isn’t good by any means, Nikita kept steady at it. I think that shows that the show has a loyal audience and can hopefully not drop lower it it’s time slot. In all, Nikita was keeping steady ratings and TSC was dropping (save for the finale in which it rose).

  • Melanie

    Seems to me that ratings-wise it was a crapshoot which of the low rated new(ish) shows would be renewed – all of them were sub 1.0. Maybe its just a matter of network preference or expectations. I think the expectation for TSC was that TVD would launch it and it would be strong enough to anchor a night in S2. I think the expectaion for Ringer was it would be a self starter and be strong enough to hold its own. On the other hand, HOD was expected to be dead out of the gate and it was expected that Fridays would kill Nikita.
    Ringer and TSC didn’t live up to expectations and HOD & Nikita met or exceeded them so got the nod on renewal.

  • Conner

    It’s a real shame that Ringer got cancelled. To be fair, it was definitely the CW’s lowest rated show and had little to no hope of being renewed. But I did enjoy the show while it lasted. A shame about not getting a suitable conclusion but I’m sure Sarah Michelle Gellar can count her self proud of the first and only season of Ringer.

  • Janelle Davey

    Cant believe that the secret circle got canceled! such a good show! me and my sister are in tears!

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