CW Renew/Cancel Wrap: 'The Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' Canceled; 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Gossip Girl' Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 15th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 13, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex canceled 0.40
Ringer* canceled 0.68
Nikita (F) renewed 0.69
Gossip Girl  renewed 0.82
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.84
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle canceled 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.09
Vampire Diaries  renewed 1.83

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After having them as "toss ups" for renewal or cancellation for most of the year, I predicted cancellation for both Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, and blew both those calls. After being moved to a "toss up" late in the season, I predicted that The Secret Circle would be renewed, and blew that call too. Props to Robert who called both Hart Of Dixie and The Secret Circle correctly, and missed only Nikita.

My guess is that the late season swoon by The Secret Circle killed it, and I have so little experience with shows that have ratings dives late, I was unable to take it fully into account.

5/18 Update: As expected, The L.A. Complex was nowhere to be found on the CW 2012-13 schedule. It will never air during the US broadcast season again. It will live on in Canada, and wouldn't stun me if it aired during the summer in the US, but we will have to wait and see.

While I did get all the other CW show final predictions correct, there are so few of them that's like saying I lost my thumb and index finger, but the rest of my hand was fine. As a network, the CW proved to be collectively my worst predicted this season by a wide margin. Ouch!

With that the Index bids the 2011-12 CW season adieu, there will be no more CW Renew / Cancel posts until September. Happy summer CW!

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Kat

    You can’t claim any success in predicting Supernatural correctly. You stubbornly kept it On the Bubble throughout most of the season, even knowing what nearly everyone else knew; that the network couldn’t possibly fford to cancel everything except Vampire Diaries. Only moving it to Possible Renewal when Jeremy Carver was named the new showrunner shouldn’t be considered a feather in your correct-predicting cap. The CW was indeed your worst predicting network. :)

  • Ultima

    @AirBud
    Do you really think The CW will push back 90210 in order to air a show that gets half the demo rating? And possibly launch a new show with a lead in getting 0.3? Unlikely.

    A new drama then, or Gossip Girl, or whatever. In any case, the basic point was that I think they could try it over the summer and if it completely bombs, just yank it before fall premieres.

    It probably can’t do any worse or cost any more than the reality shows they are trying this summer.

  • Debsafan

    I loved the Secret Circle and Ringer. CW will not get another chance to sucker me into any more of their shows. ABC Family did me that way with Kyle XY. and I never watch that channel again. So good bye /CW.

  • Osman

    I feel blue because of the The Secret Circle. I think, they should have renewed it. I loved TSC. I hope, TSC will be rescued.

  • Jenny

    Hart Of Dixie is my favorite show. I hope CW will put it in a better time slot.

  • Dahne

    @Kat – I thought it was Robert who kept Supernatural as a bubble show until Jeremy Carver was announced the show runner. Bill bumped Supernatural to likely renewed way before that.

  • MaryAnn

    I am sincerely mourning “Ringer” as the loss of one of my favorite shows — but at least we all saw it coming.

    But “Secret Circle” ? What on earth?! There is no way that deserved cancellation! Shows rise and fall and cycles, so I guess it was just nasty luck for any show that had its down part of the cycle right at the end of the season.

    I’m just glad that my favorite show on any network, “The Vampire Diaries,” is not in any ratings trouble.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Kat, direct your crazy at Robert. I had Supernatural as likely or certain renewal all season.

  • Osman

    @Katie

    Thanks. I signed. God bless TSC :)

  • Andrew

    Seeing as all the networks released their schedules besides CBS and The CW, it will be interesting to see what THE CW will do in its scheduling.
    I would leave Hart of Dixie on Monday nights as it proved itself stable against heavy competitiors.
    Leave Nikita and Supernatural alone as well on Friday nights.

    With Britney Spears and Demi Lovato joining The X Factor, Wednesday and Thursday nights are going to be tough for the CW so I would put Americas Next Top Model on Wednesdays with Gossip Girl’s final season since the ratings for Gossip Girl really won’t matter as it is coming to an end. But if the CW holds off to air Gossip Girl’s swan song to midseason then they should launch one of their new series after Americas Next Top Model that they don’t have a lot of faith in but has a potential to be a breakout hit (The Carrie Diaries). & then come Midseason, Gossip Girl will be paired with The Carrie Diaries.

  • Jenny

    Hart Of Dixie is my favorite show. Great acting, great writing, great plots, great scenery, great camera work, great everything. And lots of eye candy for both men and women.

    I hope CW will put it in a better time slot, and promote it better !

  • pandorajinel(formerly Erin)

    @KS
    I think the ratings only count US households, so SPN airing at the same time in other countries would have no effect on the ratings and therefor no effect on the ad price.

  • Pete

    Absolutely hideous that TSC got cancelled given its overall rating

    HIDEOUS

  • Percysowner

    @KS I agree with you that the CW or at least the Warner Brothers arm would make more money if Supernatural were shown in different countries around the same time it is aired in the US. However, they can’t force stations or networks in other countries to buy the rights to show it then. Certainly some Canadian stations are paying for the right, but in other countries they seem to be waiting to show it at a later time. I know nothing about syndication rates, but I’m guessing that the closer to “real time” the show is shown, the higher the rates. I’m sure the CW would LOVE to sell Supernatural for first run real time viewing, they just need buyers.

    Even if they decided to distribute via Itunes, I think there would be all sorts of financial considerations involved. Will it impact later syndication? How do you price episodes for various countries, in America $2.00 per episode isn’t that much in a country where they make less money $2.00 is too expensive. How would you explain to American consumers that they have to pay more than other countries?

    Real time international distribution will possibly happen one day, but we are not there yet.

  • Andrew

    I really want The CW to look at the competition this fall and program male skewing shows against female skewing competitors and female skewing competitors against shows that skew male on other networks.
    That will at least be a start to a schedule that will hopefully have them show some gains over this years schedule!

  • HB

    If the CW doesn’t move TVD from thursday night, it will have tough competition both in fall and spring

    Spring- AI
    Fall- X Factor

  • Erin

    @Ultima
    AirBud
    How many episodes will there be on Gossip Girls Season 6
    Will There be a Gossip Girls full season 6
    Will There be a Gossip Girls short Season 6
    After Gossip Girls Season 6 finishes will there be a Season 7
    Did Josh and Stephanie say that Season 6 is the final season
    Did Josh and Stephanie say that Season 6 is the final season
    What Stephaine”Savage said was We’re not writing a series finale this year,” Savage said.

  • KS

    @Percyowner

    I am really surprised they don’t have buyers. Can’t they afford to buy or is there any other specific reason behind this reluctance?
    I remember one poster suggesting me to ask the operators in India to take the show. But, that’s not possible in our country. But unlike our country s a common man’s word is taken into consideration in U.K., Australia etc, I believe. So, people there could ask their operators to buy Supernatural or other favorite shows. I am sure many people are asking. How do you know that they are not willing to buy? I don’t trust this completely.

    I want to support my argument in the previous post with this:

    In India, Terra Nova and Touch are the two shows that aired simultaneously. Most of my friends never downloaded Touch and watched it live. Supernatural is also aired on the same network. It is currently in its 5th season. Hardly any one watches it even though it is aired in prime time 9.00pm Monday to Friday.(Saturday is not a holiday in India). As a matter of fact, I myself don’t watch Supernatural on TV, because I have watched a million times on my laptop already.

    Regarding the cost, I want to give you one example. Most of my text books are written by foreign author – Most of them from U.S.A. But, the price sold in U.S.A and price sold in India of the same book differs a lot. But, I would like to tell that, there are about 300 million people in U.S.A., whereas in India we have about 1200 million people.

    Even though they can’t make good business in poor countries, there are many rich countries like Brazil, European countries, Australia etc they can earn huge profits, if not as much as U.S.A. Who knows, there might be more viewers in other countries than in U.S.A.!

  • Erin

    tvbythenumbers
    How many episodes will there be on Gossip Girls Season 6
    Will There be a Gossip Girls full season 6
    Will There be a Gossip Girls short Season 6
    After Gossip Girls Season 6 finishes will there be a Season 7
    Did Josh and Stephanie say that Season 6 is the final season
    Did Josh and Stephanie say that Season 6 is the final season
    What Stephaine”Savage said was We’re not writing a series finale this year,” Savage said.

  • Mickey 1.0

    So I figured I would catch up on HoD’s repeats this summer, and I checked the schedule and they’re showing two hurs of repeats of OTH instead next Monday.

    Will OTH repeats get slightly higher than HoD repeats? Maybe, but more importantly, wouldn’t you want to give as many people as possible a chance to catch up with the series so they will watch it for season 2? I mean, it’s not like OTH needs the promotion.

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