CW Renew/Cancel Wrap: 'The Secret Circle,' 'Ringer' Canceled; 'Nikita,' 'Hart Of Dixie,' 'Gossip Girl' Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 15th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 13, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The L.A. Complex canceled 0.40
Ringer* canceled 0.68
Nikita (F) renewed 0.69
Gossip Girl  renewed 0.82
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.84
90210 renewed 0.98
The Secret Circle canceled 0.99
One Tree Hill* final season 1.07
Supernatural (F) renewed 1.09
Vampire Diaries  renewed 1.83

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After having them as "toss ups" for renewal or cancellation for most of the year, I predicted cancellation for both Nikita and Hart Of Dixie, and blew both those calls. After being moved to a "toss up" late in the season, I predicted that The Secret Circle would be renewed, and blew that call too. Props to Robert who called both Hart Of Dixie and The Secret Circle correctly, and missed only Nikita.

My guess is that the late season swoon by The Secret Circle killed it, and I have so little experience with shows that have ratings dives late, I was unable to take it fully into account.

5/18 Update: As expected, The L.A. Complex was nowhere to be found on the CW 2012-13 schedule. It will never air during the US broadcast season again. It will live on in Canada, and wouldn't stun me if it aired during the summer in the US, but we will have to wait and see.

While I did get all the other CW show final predictions correct, there are so few of them that's like saying I lost my thumb and index finger, but the rest of my hand was fine. As a network, the CW proved to be collectively my worst predicted this season by a wide margin. Ouch!

With that the Index bids the 2011-12 CW season adieu, there will be no more CW Renew / Cancel posts until September. Happy summer CW!

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did the CW's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • June

    “I don’t watch any other show other than The Secret Circle on CW so no more ratings from me.”

    @ren
    Unless you have a Nielson box, then TSC didn’t get any ratings from you to begin with.

  • Melanie

    Bill,
    If you look at all the Friday scripted indexes – SPN at 1.09 and Grimm at .92 would be good enough to be renewed on any night on CW & NBC respectively. Of the others: Nikita at 0.69, CSI:NY at 0.55, Blue Bloods at 0.57 and Fringe at 0.50 – Nikita is doing the best relatively. Friday Factor may have played into the renewal decision.

    I think TSC’s ratings never really stabilized – they were on a downward trend all winter & spring. HOD showed signs of life and probably fits better to be paired with one of the new shows — First Cut, for example.

  • KS

    @Restless

    I am not very much concerned about Supernatural being aired in our country. I can download it and watch it, whenever I want to. Although it would be better.

    What I am concerned is, why can’t it be aired in other countries like U.K. and Australia? I am concerned about the more income they can gain if aired in other countries and so that, they can be less dependent on U.S. ratings.

    Writing a letter? Really? I doubt if they would open it. They will tear it directly and put it in the garbage bin.

    Are your grand parents or great grand parents from India? You seem to be liking our country more than me.

  • bleau

    @ 3 out of 10 hrs produced by Josh Schwartz next year on CW…hmmm

    Dont y’ all know that Josh SHARKS is the under-the-table Chief Operating Officer of CW-EEEW!

  • V

    Its been said thay Nikita does well internationally. I know here in Canada it does better than Circle / Hart.

    CW’s end game to get to syndication. They thought Hart had better long term prospects. I disagreed, i prefer Circle, but we’ll see next year.

  • Kate

    For anyone who is interested, here is who is scheduled to attend the upfront presentation on Thursday: http://twitpic.com/9l4d0y

    I expected more “new” talent to attend, but I’m really happy that so many of the “returning” talent is going to be there.

  • Jen

    I am so happy Hart Of Dixie was renewed!! I am in my 30’s and love this show!

  • AO

    KS asked,

    “Why do you guys, talk as if there is no other source of income other than from advertisers? I am not trying to argue with you. But I really want to know – why do you ignore other sources of income all the time? Also, I am not buying the syndication story. That might be one of the reasons, but not the only reason to renew a show with pathetic ratings. I believe the other sources of income also has to do something with renewal.”

    TVBTN is designed to keep things simple. There are a lot of benefits to that, both to Bill & Robert and to the visitors/posters like ourselves. Bill & Robert try every year to look at what has happened, and try to take lessons from it to better increase their odds of predicting for the next Season. Their methods are not, and almost certainly never will be, 100%. But they manage to be very accurate overall. I don’t know their success rate, but I’d guess that it’s over 90%. I don’t even know if they’d want to increase their success rate by 1% – 3% if it meant making things much more complicated. I’d guess not.

    Further, lots of shows have revenue from “Netflix, Hulu and international sales”, but how much? We don’t know those numbers. How much do International broadcasters even pay? Maybe a show that does mediocre ratings in France brings in more money then a show that does great in Madagascar? Maybe a show does great in Germany but nowhere else? We would be wrong to make assumptions without knowing the whole picture and we aren’t even close to knowing half of the picture. We don’t know what the licensing deals actually are or what shows really are doing well in their ratings in most non-USA countries. Do the International broadcasters pay based on how well a show does? What if they buy it in advance and the producer gets no extra money until the deal ends? In some deals WB may get paid the same amount of money for a show whether it’s a hit or a flop.

    Does a show that does well on iTunes bring in more money then one that does well on Hulu, or is it less, or the same amount? We don’t know DVD sales, the cast salaries, how much the shows cost to make, how much the studios charge the Networks for them. Maybe a show really does look a little better to the Network if Shonda Rhimes or Josh Schwartz or someone else the Network wants to work with is attached? How important are DVR gains? Does it differ by Network? Maybe a particular show is really liked by the affiliates, especially if it’s a 9:00 that leads into their local 10:00 news, how do we count that?

    There are so many possibilities and questions and things that we don’t know. Bill & Robert could try to spend a long long time looking at all of this and they wouldn’t get anywhere close to the whole picture. So is it better for them to try to guess with 5% or 15% or 30% of that info, or is it better to just rely on the way that they have been doing it, which overall works pretty well? Whatever we think, it’s up to them and they keep choosing the simple option.

  • nibehlung

    @ AO

    Then they should stop pretending that their prediction is based on anything but ratings and stop dismissing that there are other possibilities as to why a show may be getting renewed. US ratings is no longer the only important thing in getting a show renewed. Just because they don’t know, it doesn’t mean that it’s not true. There are more reliable website with insider information out there like Deadline, who’s said that other factors are into play in some of this year’s show renewal.

  • AO

    @ nibehlung,

    If “US ratings is no longer the only important thing in getting a show renewed” then how important are those other possibilities? Which of the ones that I mentioned are important and what weight do they carry? Just because you want it to be true that a certain factor affects things doesn’t mean that it does, either.

    I check out Deadline too. They have mentioned other factors, but they get predictions wrong too. Last year they made a big deal of the news that NBC had for sure picked up Wonder Woman, which didn’t end up happening. There’s stuff that they got wrong this year too, just like TVBTN.

  • calypse

    Returning Talents?!
    Yah they’re all sure were returning but talents?!
    PLZZZ!
    Only the Teen Choice Awards could recognized that there is some talent in that little backyard of CW.

  • KS

    @calypse

    Do you know, Golden Globes and Emmy awards are rigged? They are always given to the wrong people. Just check the People Choice Awards of this year and start talking.

  • calypse

    Huh?! REALITY BITES surely get hurt…

  • lola

    i cannot believe the Ringer was cancelled and that stupid show Heart of Dixie is being renewed. wth? Glad they’re keeping my other favorite show NIkita. I liked the secret circle but i can live without it. The Ringer was really good, atleast give us some freaking closure before axing these shows.

  • whizzer

    LOL with religiously horrible ratings, only budget money comes in at CW. They couldnt afford prestigious awards events like GG, Emmy or even SAG but just stuck in at the likes TCA or we also at KIds Choice huh?!

  • enes

    To all the Nikita fans
    I know truth hurts and the truth is that TSC should have been renewed and Nikita get the axe ! But hey who said life is fair this days !

  • HB

    @robin
    Thats what I have been saying.I wonder if they did move it, which time slot will it get?

  • Hades

    Alot of people are assuming Nikita’s 3rd season renewal automatically means a 4th season renewal for syndication purposes, cant argue with the logic. However I am wondering how low Niita can drop before CW decide its not worth it and pull the plug? Also with a show being so low rated does that not affect the chance of it being bought by another net for syndication?

  • Kavyn

    I think the idea behind the Nikita renewal was mainly because The CW had more confidence in Nikita being more stable than TSC for the 2012-2013 year. As much as I’d love to believe the show will get a 4th season, I’m not going to assume it considering all of the pilots have a good shot at being hits. If Nikita drops lower than 0.4s there’s absolutely no way they could renew the show.

    I’m pretty confident the game-plan is to promote the hell out of Nikita and HOD, and to focus on getting people to watch the network. Everything this year had terrible ratings so Nikita’s 0.4s aren’t totally absurd for renewal purposes.

  • Joel

    LAC Producers are attending upfronts!

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