NBC Renew/Cancel Wrap: 'Harry's Law,' 'Awake,' 'Best Friends Forever,' 'Are You There, Chelsea?' Canceled; 'Community,' '30 Rock,' 'Whitney,' 'Up All Night' Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 15th, 2012

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- May 13, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Prime Suspect* canceled 0.47
Bent* canceled 0.52
Best Friends Forever* canceled 0.58
The Firm* canceled 0.61
Harry's Law canceled 0.61
Free Agents * canceled 0.66
The Playboy Club * canceled 0.67
Chuck (F)* final season complete 0.69
Awake canceled 0.72
Are You There, Chelsea?* canceled 0.90
Grimm (F) renewed 0.92
Whitney* renewed 0.96
Community renewed 0.97
30 Rock renewed 0.98
Parenthood* renewed 1.00
Up All Night* renewed 1.01
Parks & Recreation renewed 1.10
Law & Order: SVU  renewed 1.12
Smash renewed 1.46
The Office  renewed 1.57

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Harry's Law fans would have descended on our site like biblical locusts were the show renewed, but of course it wasn't going to be.  Instead we had the executive producer of the show claiming we have far more power than we actually do.

Will the Harry's Law cancellation convince the doubters that total viewership is completely meaningless in broadcast primetime? A networks top total viewership show (but nearly lowest adults 18-49 rated show) was canceled. Doesn't get any more definitive than that. Except perhaps for the crazy.

As it turned out, I predicted every NBC show renewal or cancellation correctly for the season, most well in advance.

Unlike other bears, our Cancellation Bear hibernates during the summer. With that the Index bids the 2011-12 NBC season adieu, there will be no more NBC Renew / Cancel posts until September.

The Renew / Cancel Index above includes results beginning January 2, 2012. How did NBC's shows stack up based on their Fall results? Click here.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • NBC – Ouch!!

    Bill – do you have an early read on Community’s renewal next year?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill – do you have an early read on Community’s renewal next year?”

    From the as yet non-existent ratings?

  • Harris

    Burn!

  • NBC – Ouch!!

    Yes, assuming it does the same or slightly worse on Fridays.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Yes, assuming it does the same or slightly worse on Fridays.”

    My Ouija board says “Once Sony produced shows enter the syndication zone, never count them out entirely, no matter how low their ratings go”.

  • Scott M

    @NBC – Ouch

    Considering Grimm was at 92 % of the NBC average and got an early renewal if Community was at 80% or above it would certainly be at least highly likely. Even as low as 60% might be enough. Anything below that and I wouldn’t like their chances. I would also consider that they have enough episodes for Syndication purposes after their 13 episode run, so I wouldn’t think that will factor in much.

  • Naemeth

    So Long Chuck, may you be forever remembered on this and many other sites that have profited from you.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Spot on!!!!

    Cheers to TVBTN.

  • Contrarian

    Like NBC’s table, it’s so clean, all the red’s above the cutoff line and all the green’s below it :)

  • Jonas

    It’s because of accurate predictions like these, that I keep coming back to the Renew/Cancel Index every year. Great job guys, don’t let those naysayers get you down.

  • danny94

    Good to see parenthood renewed hopefully this means we are likely to get a 5th season for sydication

  • Fed

    Renew top 10, Cancel bottom 10. So easy.

  • fin1116

    I love how you put “Happy summer ABC/FOX/CW/CBS” but no happy summer for NBC haha

  • Mickey 1.0

    @Scott M
    Considering Grimm was at 92 % of the NBC average and got an early renewal if Community was at 80% or above it would certainly be at least highly likely.

    It so happens I just did the math yesterday, and Grimm’s ratings dropped after it got its early renewal. When NBC renewed it, it was doing significantly better in the ratings.

    Before it was often getting 1.6s; after the early renewal, these were its ratings:

    May 11……1.2
    May 4…….1.4
    April 27….1.4
    April 20….1.4
    April 13….1.6
    April 6…..1.3
    March 30….1.2

    As is evident on the chart, that 0.92 is right on the line between the red and the green, and it’s possible if NBC were basing its choice on the ratings after the early renewal, the decision might have gone another way.

    So that 0.92 is probably not an accurate measure of what NBC will renew on a Friday, as it renewed it when it was higher. And especially since things change from year to year, and its line-up next season might be more successful than this year’s. (I for one saw several shows I want to try out in their new trailers.)

    I think a big part of the reason Grimm got an early renewal is because NBC’s crop of new shows had failed, and it was trying to put as positive a spin on it as it could by giving early renewal to the only two shows that didn’t flop, Smash and Grimm.

    I think Community’s best hope lies in its syndication value, as Bill said.

  • Mickey 1.0

    Ha! Interestingly, seven shows finished lower than Chuck. :)

    NBC cancelled exactly half its shows. Imma look at the other charts and see what proportion the other networks cancelled.

  • KJ Styles

    It’s funny how Bill didn’t wish NBC a Happy Summer like it did the other networks, LMAO!!

  • JC

    Yay NBC. Home of the record for shows cancelled in their first season.

  • Saul

    I’m a little sad we won’t have the “They would never cancel Harry’s Law when it gets so many total viewers” people to kick around anymore

  • Rebecca

    BFF’s final two episodes will air on Friday, June 1st. I would have liked to have had more of Bent, but otherwise I’m pretty pleased with the final outcome of NBC shows for next season.

  • Joann Vensky

    I am really upset about the cancelling of Harry’s Law. I really loved that show. It is better than many other shows that are on TV especially all those stupid reality shows.

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