Easy Guess: CBS To Win Adults 18-49 Ratings Crown In 2012-13 For The First Time In 20 Years

Categories: 1-Featured,Broadcast TV

Written By

May 16th, 2012

Amidst all the chatter from the TV media about the new shows announced for the 2012-13 season, I'll make a trivially easy guess that has nothing whatsoever to do with those new shows, and practically nothing to do with entertainment programming at all.

CBS will win the season adults 18-49 ratings crown for the 2012-13 season for the first time in 20 years (the last time was 1991-92).

Why is my guess such an easy one?

Football (and maybe a bit baseball).

  • CBS is likely to finish two tenths of an adults 18-49 ratings point behind Fox this season (3.0 to 3.2)
  • CBS will have the Super Bowl next season (+0.3 ratings points for CBS)
  • CBS will have the AFC Championship game in primetime next season (+0.1 point for CBS)
  • FOX will not have the NFC Championship game in primetime next season, like they did this season (-0.1 points for FOX)
  • FOX is unlikely to get another seven game World Series like they did this season (unknown, but likely negative effect for Fox)

Adding all that up, CBS is likely to easily clear FOX among adults 18-49 next season regardless of what happens with either network's entertainment programs.

Remember, you heard it here first!

 
  • Liam

    I wonder which show will have the Super Bowl lead out???

  • forg

    I’m rooting for CBS, they deserve it to win after years of stable, overall programming. And I always felt like Fox victories were a little unfair given that they don’t program 10 PM unlike the Big 3

  • SteveO

    I agree, they’ll probably get it. But I do think it will be very very close. They have the big sports, but predictions for X Factor next year are high and if Fox does hit the baseball, then they may have a boost.

    Predicting somewhere along the lines of 3.3 vs. 3.0

  • S.

    That would be fun to watch. Fox squirming a little, and CBS gloating that they are not the network for “people that don’t have a pulse”.

    You can also predict that ABC will continue on it’s race to be the new NBC.

  • Matt

    I hope CBS doesnt do something stupid and put ‘The Job’ after the superbowl

    I want POI or BBT or 2BG, or even air golden boy or something

    please dont waste it with the job

  • SteveO

    @Matt, I think they’ll do POI. The post-game slot tends to be second season shows that they want to grow. That seems like the perfect choice.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    If CBS just wants to have the biggest rating possible (and doesn’t really care about starting a new show off on the right foot) they’ll probably just put a new episode of Big Bang Theory after the Super Bowl. If on a good Thursday night it can get a 5.0, just imagine what it would get after the Super Bowl! A 12.0 maybe?

  • danny94

    BOO!! Hate cbs all there shows are the same with absoulute no originality what so ever

  • Harris

    CBS is the worst network in history. They never make interesting shows. I thought they might have an interesting show in ‘Elementary’, until I found out that Lucy Lui would be playing Watson. Could they have picked a worse person? Only if they cast Sandra Bullock for the role.

  • JohnM

    FOX is unlikely to get another seven game World Series like they did this season (unknown, but likely negative effect for Fox)

    Too early to tell what FOX is going to get in terms of games for the world series.

    Though New York Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago teams aren’t good, the Dodgers are looking good in a down year for the National League

    I think the Dodgers in the world series would help FOX’s primetime ratings regardless of how many games.

    To predict the world series benefit purely on number of games ignores the impact of major cities / super stars in such an event.

    PS – when FOX negotiates with NASCAR to get a couple more Monday Night races, how will that affect (effect? I hate that word) the whole 18-49 war?

  • MoHasanie

    I’m hoping they get it. Fox doesn’t hasn’t deserved 1st for so many years.

  • SteveO

    I really do not like CBS, I think it’s a boring network. But looking at their ratings, they do deserve the title.

  • frodo

    @S.

    I am sure ABC will do fine, at least they take some risks and have quality shows.

    CBS is procedural mindless crap for the masses, only two or three shows on there that are good.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Too early to tell what FOX is going to get in terms of games for the world series.

    Though New York Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago teams aren’t good, the Dodgers are looking good in a down year for the National League

    I think the Dodgers in the world series would help FOX’s primetime ratings regardless of how many games.

    To predict the world series benefit purely on number of games ignores the impact of major cities / super stars in such an event.”

    The teams matter for individual game ratings, but the NUMBER of games matters far more for Fox’s ratings average since ANY World Series game, between ANY two teams is far higher rated than anything else Fox would put in its place in the schedule.

    And while you cannot predict how many games the WS will go, it’s very likely that it won’t be 7 games like last season.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Wouldn’t it be more beneficial for advertisers to look at the network rating totals WITHOUT the Super Bowl factored in? That way you could actually see who is doing good compared to other networks. As it is now, it’s like a game of Hot Potato, with the networks passing around the Super Bowl, and whoever is holding it in that year wins. That doesn’t really sound like good logic to me.

  • RJ

    Plus its very likely American Idol will continue it’s downward trend.

  • Tony ^_^

    You’re forgetting to add an X-Factor boost to FOX due to Britney and Demi being judges. ;) Hehe…

    But I think CBS will be #1. If Idol keeps collapsing. Not to mention that Mondays, Tuesdays and Fridays are likely to collapse (Unless Mob Doctor miraculously premieres high and stays steady; the Tuesday comedy block didn’t do well this season; Fringe and Touch will drop lower).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Wouldn’t it be more beneficial for advertisers to look at the network rating totals WITHOUT the Super Bowl factored in? That way you could actually see who is doing good compared to other networks. As it is now, it’s like a game of Hot Potato, with the networks passing around the Super Bowl, and whoever is holding it in that year wins. That doesn’t really sound like good logic to me.

    The average ratings “crown” is 100% irrelevant to individual advertisers, why should they care? It matters to each networks overall revenues though.

    “As it is now, it’s like a game of Hot Potato, with the networks passing around the Super Bowl, and whoever is holding it in that year wins.”

    That’s complete nonsense. Fox has “won” each of the last 8 years, with only the Super Bowl every third year. And as noted, CBS hasn’t won in 20 years, and they get the Super Bowl every three years.

  • Chuck_T

    It is still the Tiffany network! The thing about CBS is that they manage to get shows that in a lot of instances are liked by people of all ages.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    @ Bill

    I shouldn’t have said they ‘win’, but rather, they get a huge boost that doesn’t necessarily reflect the quality of the programming they put out that year.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures