Easy Guess: CBS To Win Adults 18-49 Ratings Crown In 2012-13 For The First Time In 20 Years

Categories: 1-Featured,Broadcast TV

Written By

May 16th, 2012

Amidst all the chatter from the TV media about the new shows announced for the 2012-13 season, I'll make a trivially easy guess that has nothing whatsoever to do with those new shows, and practically nothing to do with entertainment programming at all.

CBS will win the season adults 18-49 ratings crown for the 2012-13 season for the first time in 20 years (the last time was 1991-92).

Why is my guess such an easy one?

Football (and maybe a bit baseball).

  • CBS is likely to finish two tenths of an adults 18-49 ratings point behind Fox this season (3.0 to 3.2)
  • CBS will have the Super Bowl next season (+0.3 ratings points for CBS)
  • CBS will have the AFC Championship game in primetime next season (+0.1 point for CBS)
  • FOX will not have the NFC Championship game in primetime next season, like they did this season (-0.1 points for FOX)
  • FOX is unlikely to get another seven game World Series like they did this season (unknown, but likely negative effect for Fox)

Adding all that up, CBS is likely to easily clear FOX among adults 18-49 next season regardless of what happens with either network's entertainment programs.

Remember, you heard it here first!

 
  • Chuck_T

    I bet NBC wishes the Olympics were on during the fall rather than summer!!

  • Mark Wilkins

    Hell, I love CBS, most of the shows I watch are on this network. They have the best comedies and dramas along with the Superbowl. I would love to see POI after the Superbowl. And it looks like this article brought out the anti-cbs trolls.

  • rich

    Considering how consistent CBS has been, i find it interesting that they haven’t won a season in A18-49s even with seasons they had the Super Bowl…

  • Alex

    Post Superbowl Spot:
    How I Met Your Mother followed by another comedy (2 Broke Girls or Partners)
    We finally see the Mother in this episode?

  • RAYRAY

    they should put 2 Broke Girls after the Super Bowl

  • flippy

    OR a TBBT/TAAHM crossover one-hour episode! ‘The Big Bang theory of Two and a half men’

    OR a TBBT/HIMYM crossover: ‘The Big Bang Theory of how I Met your Mother’

    They need to boost their comedy.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Considering how consistent CBS has been, i find it interesting that they haven’t won a season in A18-49s even with seasons they had the Super Bowl…”

    CBS PR has worked it’s magic on you!

    Once American Idol hit big, CBS had no chance vs. Fox, Super Bowl or not.

    From 2000-2004 it was the later stage of NBC’s “Must See TV era”
    1999-2000 ABC (Millionaire?)
    1998-9 NBC
    I don’t have the numbers between 1992 and 1998, but my guess is that it was more NBC “Must See TV” leadership.

  • LJJ

    I agree with Rich, I’m surprised they haven’t taken one from Fox before now. It’s Wednesday that kills it for them, they’ve been getting their ass kicked by Fox on a Wednesday for a while now…

  • Matt

    put POI after the superbowl!!!!

  • Lane

    Glad Fox isn’t going to be the winner anymore. Not that it matter much I’m sure CBS is profiting nicely from most of their shows all over 2.5 and their reruns dominating Cable(NCIS, TBBT). Almost all Fox’s shows have hit below a 2.0 besides maybe New Girl and Glee. Only thing saving them is American Idol and even thats getting beat by CBS on Thursdays and fighting for the number one spot by Modern Family Wednesday. I’ll watch Xf this fall just to see how Britney Spears will do it could do better than last season but I don’t see it getting 5.0′s and 6.0′s. Atleast not for liveshows.

  • Alex

    Oooh, I didn’t consider the comedies crossing over.

    Easiest Crossover options:
    New York: 2 Broke Girls, How I Met Your Mother
    So Cal: The Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men, Friend Me
    Chicago: Mike & molly
    Unknown: Partners

    Of course the writers could always force them to travel to different cities.

  • Lane

    If CBS puts POI after Superbowl… That might be the best thing ever but I just don’t see them doing it.

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    Once American Idol hit big, CBS took a back seat to Fox. From 2000-2004 it was the later stage of NBC’s “Must See TV era”, 1999-2000 ABC (Millionaire?), 1998-9 was NBC, I don’t have the numbers between 1998 and 1992, but my guess is that it was more NBC “Must See TV” leadership.

    CBS – 92
    ABC? – 93
    ABC – 94
    NBC – 95, 96, 97, 98, 99
    ABC – 2000 (Millionaire crazyness)
    NBC – 01, 02, 03, 04
    FOX – 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12

    FOX broke NBC’s consecutive season record when they hit six, and obviously NBC was winning when they had five top 10 hits on Thursday every year from fall 1994 on, so we can deduce that ABC won 1993-94, and probably 1992-93 as well.

    That would be fun to watch. Fox squirming a little

    FOX will have both huge primetime NFL games in 2014, so CBS’ stay at the top will likely be a short one (unless FOX’s reality competitions keep seeing 30% year-to-year declines).

  • Christian

    I hope ABC surprises us all and pulls out a win! Stranger things have happened..

  • Mi

    I’d rather CBS to win too, especially because the % of reality CBS air these days is smaller than Fox and Fox didn’t win because of their dramas or sitcoms but because of AI.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “FOX will have both huge primetime NFL games in 2014, so CBS’ stay at the top will likely be a short one (unless FOX’s reality competitions keep seeing 30% year-to-year declines).”

    I’ll save that post for next spring!

  • serg

    Another factor helping CBS prospects next year is that American Idol has been dropping like a rock for the past few seasons.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I hope ABC surprises us all and pulls out a win! Stranger things have happened..”

    That would be a “Sun rose in the West this morning” level of “stranger thing” for next season.

  • Ultima

    @Christian
    I hope ABC surprises us all and pulls out a win! Stranger things have happened..

    That’s basically already happened once. Millionaire premiered in August 1999 and blindsided everyone. Then they put it on five nights a week and had short trip to last place.

    If it happens again, causing CBS to miss out on #1 this season and then FOX wins next season because ABC has its new hot show on seven nights a week, that would just be too cruel an outcome for CBS.

  • CBS makes me happy

    @mark Wilkins I agree 100%

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