Easy Guess: CBS To Win Adults 18-49 Ratings Crown In 2012-13 For The First Time In 20 Years

Categories: 1-Featured,Broadcast TV

Written By

May 16th, 2012

Amidst all the chatter from the TV media about the new shows announced for the 2012-13 season, I'll make a trivially easy guess that has nothing whatsoever to do with those new shows, and practically nothing to do with entertainment programming at all.

CBS will win the season adults 18-49 ratings crown for the 2012-13 season for the first time in 20 years (the last time was 1991-92).

Why is my guess such an easy one?

Football (and maybe a bit baseball).

  • CBS is likely to finish two tenths of an adults 18-49 ratings point behind Fox this season (3.0 to 3.2)
  • CBS will have the Super Bowl next season (+0.3 ratings points for CBS)
  • CBS will have the AFC Championship game in primetime next season (+0.1 point for CBS)
  • FOX will not have the NFC Championship game in primetime next season, like they did this season (-0.1 points for FOX)
  • FOX is unlikely to get another seven game World Series like they did this season (unknown, but likely negative effect for Fox)

Adding all that up, CBS is likely to easily clear FOX among adults 18-49 next season regardless of what happens with either network's entertainment programs.

Remember, you heard it here first!

 
  • Karen

    I want CBS to win, I prefer them to FOX

  • SVU: Fringe Division

    Bill Gorman

    Unseen episode of Twilight Zone?

  • Fred

    Plus Fox’s Idol will most likely continue to erode.

    The Britney fueled X Factor might help make up for that though.

  • Mi

    I don’t think Britney factor will last for more than a few episodes. I wonder if she’ll be coherent enough as a judge in XFactor, she could wind up looking crazier than Paula.

  • OMG

    I generally prefer CBS and ABC a lot more than FOX or NBC. At least CBS and ABC tries to do programming without taking out the reality tv shows trump card. Yes I know there is still DWTS and Shark Tank for ABC and Survivor and TAR for CBS, but at least they are well spread out in terms of scripted and unscripted programming. FOX is clearly milking The X Factor and Idol all the way, while NBC it is the Voice and America’s Got Talent. Take away these from FOX and NBC, there isn’t a lot to say.

    CBS really established itself in terms of scripted shows, and in particular procedurals. Their procedurals were mostly well done, and great. ABC takes a lot more risks, fails a lot more time, remember for 2 years they couldn’t find any well-rated dramas besides Castle? But if not for ABC, shows like Revenge or Once Upon A Time (competing for DOA award when they are first revealed) would have never seen the light of the day.

  • JohnM

    And while you cannot predict how many games the WS will go, it’s very likely that it won’t be 7 games like last season.

    Not to be a nudge but ‘very likely’ is an inaccurate statement. No offense, but I read people who cover baseball for a living and even they wouldn’t predict so early in the season the likelihood of how long the world series will be (and no – history is not an indicator because every year it’s different teams even if it’s the same team it’s a different roster, a different season)

    It might be 7 games, it might not be 7 games, but until the season is a bit more than a quarter over the likelihood of 7 games is impossible to predict. For someone who loves his algorithms, you should know better.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “At least CBS and ABC tries to do programming without taking out the reality tv shows trump card.”

    ABC % of unscripted show hours in the Fall 45%
    FOX % of unscripted show hours in the Fall 46.7%

    In the spring, FOX’s % falls to 40%

    What were you saying again?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “It might be 7 games, it might not be 7 games, but until the season is a bit more than a quarter over the likelihood of 7 games is impossible to predict. For someone who loves his algorithms, you should know better.”

    That’s complete nonsense. Do you even understand what the word “likely” means?

    The WS has gone 7 games 15 times since 1968 (43 series not counting the strike year), so it’s not *likely* to go 7 games in any particular year.

  • OMG

    @Bill I guess I was wrong then. But what I am trying to say is, at least the reality shows on CBS and ABC are not milked all the way, like how FOX wins on the strength of AI every season, and how NBC got back on track only due to The Voice. I know when it comes to ratings, everything is fair game. But if this is the easy route out, we would all be watching scripted shows on cable soon.

  • Person of Interest

    if Fox programs 10pm shows they would lose easily maybe even become the third behind ABC or NBC because their ratings suck and if you put 10pm with that they will suck even more

  • Lane

    @OMG I agree. Idol is on 2-3 times a week in the winter while ABC/CBS have 3 shows on. Same with Xfactor. If you took out ALL reality shows on ABC/CBS/FOX/CBS CBS and ABC would come out on top. Fox can’t get a show over 3.0 that isn’t a reality show.

  • The Real Original Ray

    The predictions on this site are crippling to the industry. If FOX loses advertising dollars in 2013-2014 because it slips behind CBS next year TVBTN should be held completely responsible.

    TVBTN — Scarier than the Mayan Prophecy

  • Michael

    Says a FOX executive…

  • Skylar

    CBS is by far the worst network, same old boring cop shows and dated comedies with tacky laugh tracks.

  • Bob

    CBS is the best network by far. I watch more CBS shows then anything else. The only ABC shows I watch are Revenge, Dancing with the Stars and sometimes Scandal and Gray’s. NBC is dead to me since Harry’s Law…lol. I only watch America’s Got Talent on NBC now adays. CBS has Survivor, NCIS, NCIS LA, Hawaii 5-0, the comedies, Blue Bloods, CSI’s, POI, The Good Wife, The Mentalist, 60 Minutes, Criminal Minds, and so many more. It is 100 percent the best network on Earth.

  • Petar

    If CBS puts POI after Superbowl… That might be the best thing ever but I just don’t see them doing it.

    Why not. This is most logical choice! Rookie show hit who need big boost and yea now will be in toughest slot with Glee and the others.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “TVBTN — Scarier than the Mayan Prophecy”

    The Mayans died out before they could see their prophecy come true.

    I don’t plan on going anywhere!

  • Ultima

    @Person of Interest
    if Fox programs 10pm shows they would lose easily maybe even become the third behind ABC or NBC because their ratings suck and if you put 10pm with that they will suck even more

    Nonsense.

    There’s no way that whatever FOX had on at 10pm would be so bad that it would drop their average by 25%! They would need to average less than a 1.0 Live+7 rating in the 10pm hour to fall down to ABC’s or NBC’s level.

    Yes, if you give them a hypothetical average for 10pm this year, or ignore CBS’s 10pm hour, CBS would have a higher season average. For this season. FOX would still have easily been the top rated network six of the past eight years.

    FOX not programming the 10pm hour is not nearly as a big of a deal as some people make it out to be.

  • Ultima

    @Lane
    I agree. Idol is on 2-3 times a week in the winter while ABC/CBS have 3 shows on. Same with Xfactor. If you took out ALL reality shows on ABC/CBS/FOX/CBS CBS and ABC would come out on top.

    Exaggeration, bad points, etc.

    Idol was on three times in one week twice this year (the special Sunday airing and semis week).

    ABC is almost as heavy in reality as FOX and NBC are. Dancing with the Stars is the 4th, 5th and 6th highest rated hours on their schedule.

    Fox can’t get a show over 3.0 that isn’t a reality show.

    Glee (3.1), Family Guy (3.1) and New Girl (3.2). Btw, ABC only has three scripted shows averaging 3.0 or higher – the same as FOX. ABC wins Fridays because it runs three unscripted hours. Their Monday/Tuesday lineups are completely centered around DWTS and The Bachelor.

    Also, if you’re angry at the dominance of reality and unscripted programming, don’t put all of the blame on FOX. ABC and CBS are the ones who started all of this back in 1999 and 2000 with Who Wants to be a Millionaire? and Survivor!

  • Ultima

    “edit: formatting”

    @Lane
    I agree. Idol is on 2-3 times a week in the winter while ABC/CBS have 3 shows on. Same with Xfactor. If you took out ALL reality shows on ABC/CBS/FOX/CBS CBS and ABC would come out on top.

    Exaggeration, bad points, etc.

    Idol was on three times in one week twice this year (the special Sunday airing and semis week).

    ABC is almost as heavy in reality as FOX and NBC are. Dancing with the Stars is the 4th, 5th and 6th highest rated hours on their schedule.

    Fox can’t get a show over 3.0 that isn’t a reality show.

    Glee (3.1), Family Guy (3.1) and New Girl (3.2). Btw, ABC only has three scripted shows averaging 3.0 or higher – the same as FOX. ABC wins Fridays because it runs three unscripted hours. Their Monday/Tuesday lineups are completely centered around DWTS and The Bachelor.

    Also, if you’re angry at the dominance of reality and unscripted programming, don’t put all of the blame on FOX. ABC and CBS are the ones who started all of this back in 1999 and 2000 with Who Wants to be a Millionaire? and Survivor!

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