Easy Guess: CBS To Win Adults 18-49 Ratings Crown In 2012-13 For The First Time In 20 Years

Categories: 1-Featured,Broadcast TV

Written By

May 16th, 2012

Amidst all the chatter from the TV media about the new shows announced for the 2012-13 season, I'll make a trivially easy guess that has nothing whatsoever to do with those new shows, and practically nothing to do with entertainment programming at all.

CBS will win the season adults 18-49 ratings crown for the 2012-13 season for the first time in 20 years (the last time was 1991-92).

Why is my guess such an easy one?

Football (and maybe a bit baseball).

  • CBS is likely to finish two tenths of an adults 18-49 ratings point behind Fox this season (3.0 to 3.2)
  • CBS will have the Super Bowl next season (+0.3 ratings points for CBS)
  • CBS will have the AFC Championship game in primetime next season (+0.1 point for CBS)
  • FOX will not have the NFC Championship game in primetime next season, like they did this season (-0.1 points for FOX)
  • FOX is unlikely to get another seven game World Series like they did this season (unknown, but likely negative effect for Fox)

Adding all that up, CBS is likely to easily clear FOX among adults 18-49 next season regardless of what happens with either network's entertainment programs.

Remember, you heard it here first!

 
  • Freddy Arrow

    @alexjones

    “how FOX have held onto the lead this long is beyond me, american idle is the ONLY show to pull really high ratings, anything else is lucky to get anything above a 3.0″

    House, 24 and Glee have gone way over that at times in the last 7 years. Bones and the animation block have been easily above that in the past as well.

  • Theoacme

    @The Real Original Ray: With Alec Baldwin, Parminder Nagra, Malcolm-Jamaal Warner, and Laura Innes in the cast, your show on NBC would get, and I quote, “six seasons and a movie” ;)

  • iggy.

    Nah, I’ll stick with FOX.

  • William Haney

    What about NBC?

  • Harmiel

    I’m 100% sure that New Girl and Glee hit 3′s this year. CBS will surely win if Fox’s old shows are continue to drop, newbies are not quite high in ratings, and X-Factor undeperforms.

  • Lane

    CBS will surely win Monday/Tuesday/Friday nights. Maybe even Thursday that is if POI stays around the 3.0 range and Elementary doesn’t fail hard.

  • Alex

    I guessing it was a joke about Survivor: FvF 2.
    I think its a possibility but a long shot.

    List of previous CBS superbowls:
    XXXV CBS Survivor: The Australian Outback
    XXXVIII CBS Survivor: All-Stars
    XLI CBS Criminal Minds (Survivor option was Fiji, which blew)
    XLIV CBS Undercover Boss (Survivor option was Heroes vs Villains)

    I can understand Criminal Minds over Survivor: Fiji, but Undercover Boss over the hyped Heroes vs Villains was a mistake, imho.

    It would have to be an amazing season and first episode for them to place it back in the superbowl time slot, it could reboot the whole franchise which looks to die in a few years.
    If I had a to bet, it would be comedy(ies?)

  • Riff Rafferty

    The fact that CBS won 18-49 in the ’91-’92 season (for basically no other reason than the World Series and the Winter Olympics) makes me want to throw up. Every single new show Sagansky threw on BOMBED. I think “Brooklyn Bridge” was the only new show that got renewed (not that it stopped Gary David Goldberg from constantly griping) — and it certainly wasn’t because of its ratings. Oh, and the newsmag “Street Stories.” And they were both canned the season afterwards.

    As for losing this season in 18-49, well, sorry, CBS. If it’s any consolation, I bet you could have pulled off the win if you had cut back on repeats…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “What about NBC?”

    NBC will almost certainly be 4th, unless something freakish happens with them and/or ABC.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Undercover Boss over the hyped Heroes vs Villains was a mistake, imho.”

    Huh?

    Undercover Boss did very well after the Super Bowl, and very well for a almost two seasons afterwards.

  • Sandy

    Hope Person of Interest is chosen for show to be aired after Super Bowl. Perfect show foe mostly male audience

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