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TV Ratings Tuesday: 'So You Think You Can Dance' and 'The New Normal' Flat, 'The Voice' Dips; 'Go On' Premieres Well & 'Parenthood' Premieres Down

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September 12th, 2012

Scoreboard NBC UNI FOX CBS ABC CW
Adults 18-49: Rating/Share 2.9/8 1.6/5 1.5/4 1.2/3 0.7/2 0.3/1
Adults 18-34: Rating/Share 2.2/7 1.5/5 1.2/4 0.6/2 0.6/2 0.2/1
Total Viewers (million) 8.386 3.491 4.286 7.456 2.419 0.670

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NBC was the number one network in adults 18-49 and with total viewers.

On FOX,  So You Think You Can Dance scored a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating, flat with last week.

On NBC, The Voice earned a 3.9 adults 18-49 rating, down three tenths after yesterday's premiere 4.2 rating. The second episode of Go On earned a 3.4 18-49 rating, down considerably from its 5.6 post-Olympics premiere rating and The New Normal was even with yesterday's 2.5 premiere 18-49 rating. Parenthood premiered its fourth season to a 1.9 adults 18-49 rating, down three tenths from last season's 2.2 premiere rating  and its lowest-rated premiere ever. Your predictions were about right.

 

Broadcast primetime ratings for Tuesday, September 11 2012:

Time Net Show 18-49 Rating 18-49 Share Viewers Live+SD (million)
8:00PM NBC The Voice 3.9 12 11.30
FOX So You Think You Can Dance (8-10PM) 1.5 4 4.29
CBS NCIS -R 1.2 4 8.64
ABC The Middle -R 0.9 3 3.84
CW Hart Of Dixie -R 0.3 1 0.70
tvbythenumbers.com
8:30PM ABC Last Man Standing -R 0.8 2 3.03
tvbythenumbers.com
9:00PM NBC Go On 3.4 9 9.57
CBS Hawaii Five-0 -R 1.1 3 6.92
ABC Happy Ending -R 0.8 2 2.28
CW the Next -R 0.2 1 0.64
tvbythenumbers.com
9:30PM NBC The New Normal 2.5 7 7.00
ABC Don't Trust The B in Apt 23 -R 0.7 2 1.94
tvbythenumbers.com
10:00PM NBC Parenthood 1.9 5 5.57
CBS NCIS: Los Angeles -R 1.2 3 6.80
ABC Private Practice -R 0.5 1 1.72


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Via Press Note:

In Nielsen's 56 metered markets, household results were: "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," 2.4/6; CBS's "Late Show with David Letterman," 2.1/6 with an encore; and ABC's combo of "Nightline," 2.6/6; and "Jimmy Kimmel Live," 1.3/4. 

  • In the 25 markets with Local People Meters, adult 18-49 results were: “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno,” 0.8/4; "Late Show," 0.4/2 with an encore; "Nightline," 0.9/4; and "Jimmy Kimmel Live," 0.5/3.
  • At 12:35 a.m., "Late Night with Jimmy Fallon" (1.3/5 in metered-market households) beat CBS's "Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson" (1.0/4).  In the 25 markets with Local People Meters, "Late Night" (0.5/3 in 18-49) topped "Late Late Show" (0.2/2).
  • At 1:35 a.m., "Last Call with Carson Daly" averaged a 0.8/4 in metered-market households with an encore and a 0.3/2 in adults 18-49 in the 25 markets with local people meters.

NOTE: All national ratings are "live plus same day" from Nielsen Media Research unless otherwise indicated.

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2012 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

You can see TV ratings from other recent Overnight ratings reports here.

Definitions:

Fast Affiliate Ratings: These first national ratings, including demographics, are available at approximately 11 AM (ET) the day after telecast, and are released to subscribing customers daily. These data, from the National People Meter sample, are strictly time-period information, based on the normal broadcast network feed, and include all programming on the affiliated stations, sometimes including network programming, sometimes not. The figures may include stations that did not air the entire network feed, as well as local news breaks or cutaways for local coverage or other programming. Fast Affiliate ratings are not as useful for live programs and are likely to differ significantly from the final results, because the data reflect normal broadcast feed patterns. For example, with a World Series game, Fast Affiliate Ratings would include whatever aired from 8-11PM on affiliates in the Pacific Time Zone, following the live football game, but not game coverage that begins at 5PM PT. The same would be true of Presidential debates as well as live award shows and breaking news reports.

Rating: Estimated percentage of the universe of TV households (or other specified group) tuned to a program in the average minute. Ratings are expressed as a percent.

Share (of Audience): The percent of households (or persons) using television who are tuned to a specific program, station or network in a specific area at a specific time. (See also, Rating, which represents tuning or viewing as a percent of the entire population being measured.)

Time Shifted Viewing – Program ratings for national sources are produced in three streams of data – Live, Live+Same Day (Live+SD) and Live+7 Day. Time shifted figures account for incremental viewing that takes place with DVRs. Live+Same Day (Live+SD) include viewing during the same broadcast day as the original telecast, with a cut-off of 3:00AM local time when meters transmit daily viewing to Nielsen for processing. Live+7 Day ratings include incremental viewing that takes place during the 7 days following a telecast.

For more information see Numbers 101 and Numbers 102.

 
  • Oliver

    Go On returned as big as expected. I think it’s a complete lock for a second season renewal even at this early stage. Its ratings are going to drop significantly, but it’s unlikely to be below NBC standards.

    TNN did slightly better than I expected, but not far off. I thought it would drop a couple of tenths off its premiere instead of being flat. The big Go On lead-in undoubtedly helped a lot. Still not great, though, and a 27% drop-off from its lead-in isn’t exactly inspiring going forward, especially since you would expect good retention from a half-hour show.

    Parenthood is solid, stable and reliable and returns where you’d expect it to be. It’s back next year barring NBC having an incredible year or it having sudden unexpected ratings collapse, and I wouldn’t bet on either. It won’t earn much in syndication, but it will earn enough to justify bringing it back, and serialized dramas are becoming more valuable due to Netflix. I think NBC will use it as nice reliable filler for tough timeslots.

  • nikki

    @ crimtv i hate the network because they base decisions on money not quality. and i dont feel bad for them at all because they did this all by thereself with the ratings. they can quality shows that bring in decent ratings for cheap production shows that cant hold their own. they copy off everyother network their shows are all the same. anything new and different they get rid of. i have no issue with NBC but the CW asked for this. Eventually there wont be a CW channel and i think thats for the best.

  • Alex

    @Ultima
    Given how poorly NBC has done launching shows on Thursdays, it’s a safe bet that 20 episodes of Parenthood will be a significantly better return on investment than 20 episodes of one or two freshman dramas.

    You’re making the faulty assumption (and its a big faulty assumption) that its Parenthood or another drama or two other dramas. The truth is that there’s much greater chance that its Parenthood or non-scripted. Thursday and Friday 10PM are both currently occupied by non-scripted shows. And in fact are both occupied by non-scripted news programming which is infinitely cheaper than Parenthood can ever hope to be. So if this is an economic decision why is NBC displacing Rock Center or Dateline which are much cheaper to produce and can turn a profit at much lower numbers? Not to mention both shows help keep one of the more successful parts of NBC (NBC News) happy.

    Equally without knowing how the rest of NBC’s season pans out there’s really no way of knowing what the hell they’re going to do or what they’re going to need. NBC have Revolution, Chicago Fire, Hannibal, Do No Harm and Notorious all to debut this season plus the second season of Smash for midseason and a whole string of new comedies. Plus they’ve got the straight to series Crossbones on the horizon at some point. Lets say Revolution breaks out on Monday out of The Voice and Smash has a strong second season where does that leave Parenthood? Equally lets say that Go On holds steady at where it is now and one of the midseason comedies does well and couple that with the straight to series order they just gave to the Michael J Fox show for next season that changes the outlook of Thursday night. If NBC luck into a comedy line-up that works are they really going to want a dead end drama in the 10PM slot? Hell even if they don’t luck into a comedy line-up that works this season with the Michael J Fox show seemingly set to be the new star attraction of Thursday night next year are they really going to want a dead end drama at 10PM?

    If Parenthood isn’t strong enough to warrant a slot on Tuesday nights then it isn’t strong enough to warrant a slot on Thursday night. And given that Friday has actually been relatively successful for NBC it ain’t strong enough to warrant a slot there either.

  • Oliver

    I see the “Downwardly Mobile” trolls are still about. I still think it’s the production company trying to pump up their show.

    NBC clearly didn’t think much to the pilot the concept doesn’t sound hugely appealing, and the demographics of those people who loved Roseanne is unlikely to be favourable to a sitcom airing in 2012.

  • Mike

    im confused at why people are saying new normal is doing good when i had no competition and pulled those ratings….. WOW… im sure itle take a dive next week even before it even goes up against the mindy project…

    Also noteworthy yesterday was the actual set date that the new normal was to premiers so basically people a lot more people were tuning in for the first time and last

  • Alex

    @Silvio
    I think it’s clear what’s better. It’s even not about making profit, maybe those $70 mil would just make Parenthood losses smaller in the end. But still something is better than nothing.

    You’re working on the assumption that it sells into syndication which is by no means a lock. Getting the show to 88+ episodes is only part of the battle the other part is getting someone else to buy it. And then you have to keep it in syndication which means it has to be popular there. Equally it isn’t true that you have to have 88+ episodes to get into syndication in cable. It probably remains true that you’d need that for local/affiliate syndication but lets be honest here Parenthood is never going to sell into that market anyway.

    It should also be noted that the cable networks are no longer buying anything and everything from the broadcast networks and recent big deals that haven’t really worked out are making them gun shy on paying big bucks for successful drama (and Parenthood isn’t one of them). Parenthood won’t be entering a friendly syndication market. It doesn’t have a large audience to command a high or even decent syndication value.

    My overall point here is that people just type ‘syndication’ and think that’s some cure for all ills. It isn’t. These are incredibly big and expensive decisions that are being made and I don’t think people truly think them through when they start saying that show x is safe because its nearly at syndication level. That might still be true for comedy but it isn’t universally true for drama particularly not non-procedural drama. People just type ‘of course they’ll give Parenthood another 20 episodes, syndication’ without taking into account that those 20 episodes are going to cost tens of millions of dollars and somebody has to pay for them. Production companies and networks aren’t in the habit of throwing good money after bad. They’re businesses.

    The question/issue shouldn’t be and isn’t how many more episodes until syndication (if only because shows don’t just magically get syndicated when they reach 88 episodes)? The issue is and question is whether that show and those episodes is profitable or has any chance of being profitable. That Parenthood is 20 episodes away from syndication at the end of these season is meaningless in and of itself. That only matters if Universal believe they can make money from getting it there and if they’re willing to use that potential pay-off to make the show more palatable for a network. Equally that network has to be open to it as well.

    It should also be asked do NBC really want another 20 episodes of Parenthood? It gone from 22 episode second season to an 18 episode third season to a 15 episode fourth season. What about that pattern says NBC want a 20 episode fifth season? If Universal were so interested in pushing Parenthood to syndication why didn’t it insist on 22 episode third and fourth seasons? Or make it more financially palatable for NBC to order 22 episode seasons? If they had then it would be at 79 episodes by the end of this season and would only need 9 to reach ‘syndication’. I can see a pitch for a 10-13 episode final season to push a show like Parenthood to syndication. I cannot see a pitch for a 20 episode season. That’s a lot of episodes for a show you don’t really want, is going to rate horribly and you probably don’t have a slot for.

  • Ultima

    @Alex

    I’ll try to be as clear as possible.

    The revenue from selling 88 episodes of Parenthood into syndication easily justifies the production cost of the 20 episodes it needs to get there, even at low ratings levels.

    There’s probably some cut off point where it’s just not worth it; however, as the premiere was well within expectations (-14% year-to-year and equal to previous finale), it’s definitely not there now. Therefore, the premiere numbers aren’t a “disaster,” as you put it.

    It does not matter where it goes on the schedule next year, they’ll find room. It does not matter how it performs next year, they’ll already be committed to the 88 episodes. That said, they’ll probably move it away from one of their better nights to a place where its ratings won’t be toxic or waste a good lead-in.

  • Oliver

    Hm, looking at the schedule Alex is right that people are probably over-optimistic about Parenthood’s syndication prospects.

    I still wouldn’t bet against it being renewed, though.

  • Silvio

    @Alex
    You don’t have to say me about 88 episodes not automatically meaning syndication. I wrote many posts here explaining to delusional fans of some shows (like Nikita) that there’s no guarantee of getting syndication deal … or that it can end as pathetic as Gossip Girl syndication – 80K viewers on marginal Style Network.

    But there’s no doubt that there exists syndication market for Parenthood. It’s not some marginal show, it has well known cast. No way it’s gonna get huge amounts as CBS procedurals get … but that is why I mentioned (nowadays relatively modest) number of $1 million per episode.

    All your said about number of episodes is irrelevant. I said 20 episodes just to have nice round numbers. All that matters is: less than 88 (or whatever cut is) episodes = no money or small money. Over the cut = significant money. Producers know exactly how much more episodes they need to be over the cut – and they’ll get accordingly big order from NBC next spring.

  • Ultima

    @Alex
    You’re working on the assumption that it sells into syndication which is by no means a lock

    The chances of a show with only 68 episodes getting a syndication deal are virtually nonexistant.

    The chances of a show with 88 episodes getting a syndication deal are vastly greater than the chances of a new show reaching 88 episodes and getting a syndication deal.

    Thus, the expected value of a fifth season of Parenthood is going to be higher than that of any freshman drama, which means that NBC should renew it.

  • iFool

    @ Oliver

    Their not trolls their speaking the truth don’t be jumping the gun on these numbers once competition settles in these comedies will start to fade away.

    Downwardly Mobile not getting picked up was a bad mistake.

  • Ultima

    @Alex
    That only matters if Universal believe they can make money from getting it there

    The answer to that is NO. Scripted shows on broadcast television are produced at a loss with the hope that they can cash out later (primarily through off-network syndication).

  • Alex

    @Ultima
    Therefore, the premiere numbers aren’t a “disaster,” as you put it.

    Unlike you I don’t judge a shows ratings on the criteria of how many episodes it has. I judge a shows ratings on the merits of its ratings. Its interesting that you made reference to passing judgement using ‘reality-based expectations’ and ‘context’ yet your sole defence for Parenthood’s poor performance is ‘it’ll have 68 episodes at the end of this season’. How exactly does that make its ratings performance any better? Also interesting is that you simply ignored all the context and reality I pointed out regarding why the number wasn’t good and went with ‘it’ll have 68 episodes at the end of the season’.

    The revenue from selling 88 episodes of Parenthood into syndication easily justifies the production cost of the 20 episodes it needs to get there, even at low ratings levels.

    Assuming it sells into syndication and stays in syndication.

    The chances of a show with only 68 episodes getting a syndication deal are virtually nonexistant

    And yet Universal were happy to sell only 18 episodes last year and only 15 episodes this year. That doesn’t sound like a show they’re pushing toward syndication. You’d think if they were eyeing the rewards of syndication for Parenthood they’d have pushed for a full 22 episode order for both season three and four rather than these reduced orders. After all a show with 79 episodes has more chance of reach syndication than a show with 68 episodes, right? Or are we just ignoring that NBC’s orders of Parenthood have been getting progressively smaller. Who needs that bit of reality or context right? It doesn’t really fit with this narrative of ‘just another 20 episodes’ does it…

    Thus, the expected value of a fifth season of Parenthood is going to be higher than that of any freshman drama, which means that NBC should renew it.

    Well that’s not strictly true.

    In reality a new drama will have greater potential value to NBC than a fifth season of Parenthood. Any new drama that NBC picks up will come with a higher expectation than a low-1 in the demo for example and won’t be treated as the ugly stepchild no one really wants around and sent to the least valuable possible slot where it can do the least amount of damage to die. NBC don’t see a cent of syndication money. From NBC’s perceptive the value of Parenthood’s fifth season is decided purely on how much ad revenue they can get out of it and the answer to that will be not very much. Now you might argue that it means a lot to Universal Television and therefore something to NBC’s parent company but there’s a lot more that goes into that then simply the potential value of syndication. Plus NBCU is a big company. If its just a case of getting someone to co-finance and air those final episodes there are a lot of options out there aside from NBC.

    Having said that its not even entirely true to say that the value of a fifth season of Parenthood has greater value to Universal than a new drama either. If that new drama is a success then it has infinitely greater value than Parenthood.

    Also just for the sake of pointing this out lets not forget that Heroes – a show that has inherently higher value (and popularity) than Parenthood and a lot more appeal for syndication both domestically and internationally was killed off by NBC at 77 episodes. And that to was a Universal production.

    The answer to that is NO. Scripted shows on broadcast television are produced at a loss with the hope that they can cash out later (primarily through off-network syndication).

    I really wish you hadn’t taken that half a sentence out of context. What I said was that the fact Parenthood is 20 episodes away from syndication at the end of this season is in and of itself meaningless. It doesn’t mean anything unless those additional 20 episodes can be profitable for the production company and the network. To do that the production company have to either slash the budget and/or increase their burden of the production costs hoping that the back end pay-off is big enough to cover it. The truth is Parenthood being close to syndication only matters if Universal believe they can actually get their money back on it. They (and NBCU as a whole) aren’t going to sink tens of millions more into the series if there’s no sign of a back end or a decent back end. Additionally that a show reaches syndication doesn’t actually mean that Universal are going to make money from it. Or that NBCU will. We don’t currently know how much they’ve already lost on it, how much they’d stand to lose from a fifth season nor do we know how much a fictional syndication run would bring in (it wouldn’t be huge pay-offs) nor do we know that it would actually last in syndication and in fact its lack of success on broadcast suggests that it probably wouldn’t. To be honest I’m not actually sure what you’re answering no to here either.

  • Alex

    @Silvio
    The episode order matters because an additional 20 episodes is how many NBC needs to hit 88 and at this point there’s nothing to suggest NBC are interested in financing and airing another 20 episodes of the show. Nor should they be. And yes Parenthood really is a marginal show which is why its ratings are so poor. If its supposedly well known cast can’t drag eyes to it on broadcast it won’t drag eyes to it in syndication on an obscure cable network.

    Also I have to laugh because you seem to be suggesting that producers have some untold power to just get a network to order the number of episodes they need to hit syndication – Producers know exactly how much more episodes they need to be over the cut – and they’ll get accordingly big order from NBC next spring. – I’m not sure I share this belief that they can just get the order they need or want. That they’ve gone from 22, to 18 to 15 episode orders would suggest that the Parenthood producers in particular don’t have that skill.

  • Ultima

    @Alex
    That doesn’t sound like a show they’re pushing toward syndication.

    It was renewed. Therefore, it’s a show they’re pushing towards synidcation.

    You’d think if they were eyeing the rewards of syndication for Parenthood they’d have pushed for a full 22 episode order for both season three and four rather than these reduced orders.

    Why? They had 35 episodes after two seasons, there was no way they were going to reach 88 in two more seasons.

    Also, it may end up going 18-18-17 or 18-17-18. They ordered additional episodes last season, depends on what they need to fill their schedule.

    After all a show with 79 episodes has more chance of reach syndication than a show with 68 episodes, right?

    Doubtful. While 88 episodes isn’t a hard cutoff, deals for shows with episode counts significantly south of that are few and far between.

    In reality a new drama will have greater potential value to NBC than a fifth season of Parenthood.

    I didn’t say potential value, I said EXPECTED VALUE!

    You know, the weighted average of all possible outcomes.

    Because the failure rate of new shows is very high (most shows don’t even get a second season), and all of the failed shows are a net loss, the expected value of a new series is very low.

    Thus, it’s a better bet to go with a poor-performing show nearing syndication than risk a new show.

    What I said was that the fact Parenthood is 20 episodes away from syndication at the end of this season is in and of itself meaningless. It doesn’t mean anything unless those additional 20 episodes can be profitable for the production company and the network.

    Nonsense.

    The closer you are to syndication, the greater the syndication value per episode produced becomes.

    If you have 44 episodes, then the basic revenue model is…
    Advertising/Ep + Syndication/Ep * 2
    … because you’re expecting to produce 44 episodes and sell 88.

    If you have 66 episodes, then the basic revenue model is…
    Advertising/Ep + Syndication/Ep * 4
    … because you’re expecting to produce 22 episodes and sell 88.

    Remember, production companies are losing money on every episode they make in the hope that they can land a big off-network syndication deal. Or, in the case of a lot of marginal shows, any sort of off-network syndication deal so they can recover their losses.

  • Ultima

    @Alex
    The episode order matters because an additional 20 episodes is how many NBC needs to hit 88 and at this point there’s nothing to suggest NBC are interested in financing and airing another 20 episodes of the show.

    Yes, there is. They renewed the show! If they didn’t think the show would make them money, they would have canceled it.

  • Tom

    Alex, you have three assumptions I don’t agree with:

    1) That NBC’s opinion is unchangeable. Your argument is essentially “NBC only held their nose and renewed it out of desperation years back, and is less happy with that every year.” Why exactly is NBC now unable to change their opinion to “If we use it for spackle next year, we also net at least $10 million in the syndication market. Great!”

    2) The only possible order is 20 episodes next year. Hint: Getting a back order this year works out to 7 this year and 13 next year. Hey, that adds up to 20! (Your argument is that NBC cannot find room for 7 more episodes, when I think it’s entirely possible the Wed comedies fail, Chicago Fire fails, the Friday comedies fail, Rock Center isn’t profitable without election ad money, and two+ hours on Sunday open up after Football. Especially when, given the small episode counts on comedies, much like last year, multiple new shows may air in the same timeslot.)

    3) That syndication over all suddenly stops as a strategy. When in fact, we are seeing the opposite: now networks are even willing to eat two years (Good Wife, Nikita) of middling ad revenue to get syndication money. The overwhelming number of shows with 66+* episodes crawl to syndication. Give us any reason why that would suddenly stop.
    (*Note: even the few outliers are explainable. Heroes, for instance, continued to drop like a stone and had already been cheapened. Parenthood’s declines aren’t as dramatic and there is no evidence they’ve had to cut costs yet.)

    Simply put, all the evidence and history is against your theory. Please explain.

  • Silvio

    @Alex
    Also I have to laugh because you seem to be suggesting that producers have some untold power to just get a network to order the number of episodes they need to hit syndication

    Wow, you understand it at very simple level.
    It means: if they need 20 episodes to hit 88, production house is gonna do whatever it needs to get such order. If network can’t afford full price (and with sub-2 Parenthood ratings it’s likely NBC won’t ), then they’ll lower price accordingly. Hell, sometimes producer is giving episodes practically for free (examples: Fringe, ‘Til Death) if that is what it takes.
    Producers negotiate with networks, they talk, it’s not some childish take-it-or-leave-it game.

    As for number of episodes, it is really irrelevant if it’s 20 or some other number. It’s important that there is a number and producers know it exactly. It’s:
    x minus y
    where
    x = number of episodes production company needs for syndication
    y = number of Parenthood episodes they produced over first 4 seasons

    Producers know x, they know y, and I suppose they can calculate x minus y. As I said and repeated, they’ll get order of that size, if needed by means of giving discount (and in Parenthood case it’s very likely it will be needed).
    If it turns number is exactly 20, then I just lucky guessed it in my previous post. My explanation to you was more readable with fake 20 number than it’d be with some (x – y) formula.

  • Ultima

    @Alex
    Also just for the sake of pointing this out lets not forget that Heroes … was killed off by NBC at 77 episodes. And that to was a Universal production.

    Except that Heroes already had a syndication deal long before it was canceled. It also suffered from a catastrophic ratings collapse (-15%, -30%, -37% year-to-year). If there were any penalties in the syndication deal for lower episode counts, I’m sure it was nothing compared to the gigantic crater that would have been a fifth season of Heroes.

  • Networkman

    NBC may just found its hit that will replace The Office and 30 Rock once those end. I feel it is the supporting players that are helping Matthew Perry carry Go On. NBC can definately use this show in launching another night of comedy. NBC should not move it to Thursday. I can see them pairing the new Micheal J. Fox comedy with this next season.

    As for New Normal, I’m still hearing alot of bad reviews. People that did not watch on Monday night tuned in for its time period premiere.I would be included in this group. It stayed consistent but how many viewers were returnees from Monday?

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