Which New Fall Broadcast TV Show Will Be Canceled First? (Poll)

Categories: Broadcast TV

Written By

September 17th, 2012

Update October 10, 2012: Though it came in a distant sixth, Made In Jersey was first to be cancelled.

The Cancellation Bear has awoken after his summer hibernation and he's hungry.

The new broadcast primetime shows have already begun premiering, so it's  time to throw your hat in the ring and guess which new broadcast primetime show you think will be caught by the cancellation bear and canceled first!

Because comment thread lawyers are everywhere, let's be clear that for the purposes of this poll "canceled" means removed from its initially scheduled timeslot, either off the air entirely or rescheduled to a burn off timeslot, even if the network *claims* the show will return later (two seasons ago those who answered The Whole Truth in the "next to be canceled" poll ended up being correct, it was removed first among the shows noted and never returned, despite initial ABC claims to the contrary).

What's your guess?

While this poll allows just one answer per person, feel free to expand your choices in the comments.

9/19 Update: You can also guess which new show will be given a full season order first.

 
  • Stephen

    Darn I didn’t realize Neighbors was still premiering after MF so probably would change my vote to Animal Practice with Guys with Kids close behind.

    Neighbors I still think will get canned I haven’t actually seen it but it just seems more like a kids show that should be on Fridays plus from what I’ve seen ABC isn’t promoting it well at all. But with a premiere after MF it may make it through or into November at least.

    With NBC shows getting exposure from the Voice on Mon & Tue nights, Wednesdays are going to be really struggling. With Whitney and Community being held until later in October on Fri NBC easily has the option of replacing one or both of these shows b4 Nov. sweeps so I think these shows are most likely to get eaten by the bear first. Chicago Fire is likely going to not survive long either with SVU likely moving again back to 10pm.

  • Michael

    I would be shocked to see “666 Park Avenue” under-perform on ABC! The show is a combination of: Drama, Horror, Sci-Fi, and romance. I honestly see Sunday nights on ABC being a huge threat to all networks!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I agree they phrased it poorly. The blurb needs to be re-written. “

    Trying to keep ahead of the comment thread lawyers is always tricky, text has been edited.

    “(Regarding burn-off moves: Has a show ever been burned off on Fridays in-season? Saturday is exclusively burn-off night, right?)”

    Of course Friday can be a burn off timeslot. Fox’s Saturdays are now mostly filled with sports, and the CW doesn’t broadcast nationally on Saturdays at all. And ABC (most) and CBS (some) both have Fall Saturdays with college football, only NBC has Fall Saturdays completely free for burnoffs currently.

  • Cory

    Pretty much either of the NBC 8pm Wednesday comedies, but I’ll go with Guys With Kids first. First drama, probably Made In Jersey or Last Resort. I’ll be checking out LR with high hopes, but ABC has such a miserable track record in that slot the last few years that I’m not expecting any ratings gains.

  • sam

    Partners. Extremely bad cast (except for Krumholtz), bad concept, wrong network. Any audience it gets will be because of its lead-in.

    Elementary is poorly cast and will be moved away from Thursdays soon enough.

  • omabin

    @SJ,

    You make some excellent points which I hadn’t thought about concerning The Mob Doctor. I am now conviced it will indeed be the first drama cancelation, especially considering it’s early premiere. Chicago Fire is premiering relatively late and the first SVU episode has some hype around it from what I have seen, so maybe it holds up okay-ish for the first weeks.

    @Ike,

    I don’t know of an in-season Friday burn-off. There are some cases of ending shows (I make a difference between ending and canceled) that have finished their runs on Fridays, such as Prison Break. Apart from that, I dont know.

  • Tom

    Like usual, I will warn newbies that two factors trump show quality: Premiere Date and Available Replacements.

    Premiere Dates: Not all shows launch the same week (though many do still launch at the start of the Nielsen year). Picking a show that doesn’t start airing until other candidates have had 5 weeks to sink is usually a bad bet.
    You may think Malibu Country looks terrible, but it doesn’t start until November 2nd – many shows will have sunk to killable territory long before MC ever enters the fray.

    Available Replacements: Networks just don’t air static when a show gets killed, they have a replacement show. But not all networks have equal amounts of replacements sitting around, AND type matters – you can’t replace a failed 30 min comedy with a 60 min drama.
    On Fox, Mob Doctor has Touch in the wings just waiting for MD to fail. On the other hand, they have nothing to replace Ben & Kate with other than reruns of other shows airing on the same night. B&K would have to do terribly before Fox replaces it with New Girl reruns.
    CBS can replace Partners with Rules of Engagement in the blink of an eye. (Network logo puns!) But it is doubtful that CBS will rush Undercover Boss out with little promotion to replace Made In Jersey, rather than let MIJ run out 2012 and launch UB with proper promotion in Jan or Feb.

    So what jumps out at me?
    ABC: Neighbors looks terrible (with MC and LMS waiting in the wings), but has Modern Family propping up the launch. I don’t think its in the running for first overall.
    CBS: Partners. Promotions look bad, rough competition, ready alternative.
    CW: Nothing jumps out. Later start dates, no real replacements (ANTM timefilling on Fridays). Maybe Arrow blows up enough that VD repeats air there, but looks unlikely.
    Fox: Mob Doctor. Promotions look bad, rough competition, ready alternative (Touch), already has replacement scheduled for Spring.
    NBC: Man, what isn’t an option. TNN has an early start date with multiple competing comedies (also, Whitney waiting in wings), GWK looks terrible but with weaker competition, Chicago Fire looks TERRIBLE but does not start until October 10th.

    I think the Ryan Murphy name gives TNN enough extra leash that it is down to Partners and Mob Doctor. Mob Doctor airs one week earlier, so it gets my vote.

  • Sub

    Went with Chicago Fire it barely beat out Animal Practice and Mob Doctor(lack of replacements or i would have gone with this one).

  • JW

    Those of you not voting for Made in Jersey must not have seen the pilot. I have. I will be shocked if it last more than 3 episodes. It truly is one of the absolute worst new shows in recent memory.

  • Dan S

    I’m probably wrong but I voted for Made In Jersey on CBS. That show has no buzz & sandwiched between CSI NY & BB won’t save it from the bear. I’m thinking Undercover Boss will be brought back at 8pm & NY returns to the more time appropriate 9pm. My 2nd guess is also on CBS Partners since I don’t think the no 1 net is going to be patient with bottom dwellers & shows with no growth potential. On ABC the 1st casualty will be The Neighbors, on NBC The New Normal & Fox will likely be Mob Dr which looks like a fun guilty pleasure

  • Sub

    realized that Animal Practice has a 2 week start on Chicago Fire and I should have voted for it instead :(

  • omabin

    @Tom,

    Your reasoning sounds very wise in theory, but I disagree with you in some points:

    A) Would Touch really do better than whatever Mob Doctor would be doing on Mondays? I don’t think Fox is seriously considering that. On the other hand, why wouldn’t Ben and Kate be easily replacable if they have The Goodwin Games waiting in the wings?

    B) I don’t see ABC randomly inserting a multicam on the Wednesday block. I really think they want those to work on Friday. I can see them more easily moving them to Tuesday if my beloved Happy Endings/ Apartment 23 fails completely (hence the late premiere date for the Friday block) than putting them on Wed. I think when Neigbours is canceld, that spot will be occupied by How to Live with Your Parents or Family Tools (probably both since they will each have only half a season or not even that much), leaving the midseason spot on Tuesday to Body of Proof or even Zero Hour.

    C) Why would Arrow, out of all CW shows blow up? I think that is, by far, the safest bet for a hit, of any network, at this point. I was very surprised with your comment.

    D) Technically, there is Cult as a replacement for a failed CW show (I still say they won’t cancel anything and will leave Cult for mideason, but technically they do have it)

  • Nick

    First canceled:
    1. Chicago Fire (Early Oct)
    2. Made in Jersey (Mid Oct)
    3. The Neighbors (Mid Oct)
    4. Guys With Kids (Late Oct)
    4. Partners (Late Oct)
    6. Animal Practice (Early Nov)
    6. Vegas (Early Nov)

    End of year:
    Beauty and the Beast
    2 out of 4 of the ABC drama question marks: Nashville, Last Resort, Zero Hour, and Red Widow.
    The Mob Doctor or The Following: one or the other
    Ben & Kate or The Goodwin Games: one or the other

    The Mob Doctor is not as dead as people think. Fox will keep it on the shelf until May, to avoid the Terra Nova/Alcatraz/Touch debacle that exploded in their face last year. TN was canceled too early because ratings were mediocre, and Touch & Alcatraz looked like they’d do better, but they ended up doing worse. That might happen with the Following this year.

    B&TB will be a The Secret Circle again, with it dying at the end of the season.

    All of Fox’s comedies look promising, but only 2 will survive.

    The Neighbors, GWK, and AP will last slightly longer than they should because of pilot showcases behind big hits.

    The rest is self-explanatory.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Technically, there is Cult as a replacement for a failed CW show (I still say they won’t cancel anything and will leave Cult for mideason, but technically they do have it)”

    I’m not sure enough Cult episodes are ready now, plus it’s slated to take another the Gossip Girl timeslot in the spring, if they move it to another Fall timeslot, they have nothing for that the GG timeslot.

    While the CW has yanked unscripted shows (not produced by CBS or WB) quickly in recent years, it’s been three years (since The Beautiful Life in 2009) that they yanked a scripted show (all produced by CBS or WB) early.

    Edit: Carrie Diaries is currently slated to take the GG timeslot.

  • TimsDale4ever

    Haven’t most of these shows not even aired for the first time yet? What a dumb poll to vote on something when so much of it hasn’t even been seen. ???

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Haven’t most of these shows not even aired for the first time yet? What a dumb poll to vote on something when so much of it hasn’t even been seen. ???”

    In fact, the opposite problem is more the case. A number of these shows have already premiered, and have a ratings history, however brief that makes it a non apples to apples question. (i.e. nobody in their right mind is going to vote for Go On at this point).

    Ideally we’d do this poll before ANY new show aired, but if we went that early, our traffic to the poll would’ve been so low as to not make it worth it.

    As for guessing *after* the ratings begin, that’s what the Renew/Cancel Index posts are for. The cancellation bear returns in two weeks!

  • robin

    @Bill Gorman

    isn’t the carrie diaries suppose to take gossip girl’s slot in the spring not cult.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “isn’t the carrie diaries suppose to take gossip girl’s slot in the spring not cult.”

    You’re right, my bad memory. Editing my earlier comment.

  • Oliver

    @Nick

    All of Fox’s comedies look promising, but only 2 will survive.

    Not if Glee gets canceled.

  • Rendiggity

    I heard The Mob Doctor did horribly, and will probably be cancelled. Maybe not the first, now that I’ve looked at the complete list. The Neighbors will also be dead. I had hoped Animal Practice would have been funny, for the sake of Tyler Labine, because he’s pretty funny and always plays likeable characters (except for that stupid comedy he was in on Fox a few years ago?). The guy can never catch a good break. I tried to watch the show when it premiered during the Olympics closing ceremony, but the way NBC did it made me NOT want to watch it.

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