How Will NBC's 'Revolution' Hold Up in Week #2? Is it the 'Falling Skies' of the Broadcast World?

Categories: 1-Featured,Broadcast TV

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September 23rd, 2012

Revolution returns for its second episode Monday night on the first official day of the new TV season. That means there will be original scripted competition going up against it  on ABC (Castle) and CBS (Hawaii Five-0).  Show ratings typically go down after the premiere, and the increased competition isn't going to help matters any. But not so fast say the fan boys (and girls): the premiere of Revolution was available online before it aired on TV, the second episode isn't!

Not being the premiere plus facing increased competition strike me as much bigger factors than online availability, so I can't imagine it not going down at least a little. My guess is it drops to at least somewhere around a 3.5 adults 18-49 rating vs. the 4.1 adults 18-49 rating for the premiere. But calling a spade a spade, I was surprised it premiered as well as it did.

At this point I'm wondering whether Revolution turns out to be the Falling Skies of the broadcast network world. That is, a show that consistently draws mostly negative feedback in the comments, even though it's consistently the networks' highest-rated scripted show with young adults!

  • iggy

    A typical 19% drop in a sci-fi drama’s second week would bring it down to 3.3, and increased competition will take a bite (from The Voice as well), so I voted 2.6 – 3.0.

  • Petar Ivanov

    I hope nobody is angry at me for that spoiler. Please don’t read if you don’t want to know.

    Also hope Giancarlo Esposito win Emmy tonight. He is with 3 hit shows in a row – BB, OUAT, RVN! And twilight breaking dawn part 2 can boost RVN too. New TV star JD Pardo is with vempire role there too.

    But most important is the voice. If the voice continue this way RVN will be big.

  • Petar Ivanov

    I’m hoping it does well cause loads of people were very pessimistic last week and it backfired!

    That is why i don’t make projections after premieres. May be only for CBS shows can try. They are very stable there.

  • Matthew

    Probably around a 3.5

  • Mark

    How I Met Your Mother – 3.8
    Partners – 3.2
    2 Broke Girls – 4.4
    Mike and Molly – 3.6
    Hawaii Five 0 – 2.9

    Dancing with the Stars – 3.3
    Castle – 2.8

    The Voice – 4.0
    Revolution – 3.4

    Bones – 2.2
    The Mob Doctor – 1.3

  • CD

    I’m guessing around 3.5

  • Tom

    Revolution’s second half was a 3.8 against no competition; I would guess that settles to low 3s this week. (Say, 3.2)

    Again, those numbers will get it a quick backorder. They don’t say anything about it surviving into next season.

  • hardline_pro

    Hawaii Five-0 usually does good in the first few eps then drops severely. I don’t think it or Castle will hurt it much, especially with it’s lead in from The Voice.

  • TVDude

    Like last week, I think it will hold well after The Voice, but it will ultimately come down to how The Voice holds against the increased competition. There might be some cross over audiences between the Monday 10pm dramas, but this slot really depends on its lead in.

  • Oliver

    Shows typically drop 25% between their pilot and their sophomore episode (special previews excepted). Less is strong retention, anything more is weak retention.

    A 25% drop would be 3.1. That’s my guess.

  • s0303

    3.2…the first episode was not that good and it will drop quite a bit for the next few weeks…probably steady around a 2.5…

  • Martine

    I think Revolution could do good or it could fail. It really depends on how well they can explain the fact that electricity is somehow gone. Since electricity is a natural force like gravity, it bothered me a lot to have that premise. I mean WHAT??? NO electrical storms? No lightning? No static cling? How would a human brain even function without electricity? If they intend for adults or older teens to watch the show, they better explain themselves. Because without electricity life is impossible.
    If they keep on showing us people dressed in amish clothing and bore us with the rebelious daughter…they will fail. I was so bored when they were doing their family drama thing I almost threw up. The daughter is impossibly annoying. The asthmatic son is even worse. They both deserve to be killed several times over. And why isn’t EVERYONE trying to figure out what happened instead of planting stupid gardens all day? Honestly? Human beings don’t just give up like that.

  • Dan S

    I feel comfortable forecasting 3.3-3.5 for tomorrow. I think it’ll pull similar ratings throughout the season to Once Upon A Time has done. I don’t think it’s another Flash Forward or Event show & won’t end up disappointing fans. Those that didn’t like the pilot so be it but I’m sold on the concept & will continue watching.

  • bluejays

    2010 this week HFo got 3.9 (a fluke as it was the premier) and Castle got 3.1 – I think. 2011 Premier week HFo got 3.4 and Castle got 3.3. Those predicting 2.8’s etc, for either these shows, are predicting big drops from their usual early season performance.

    I think both HFO and Castle will be down but not by that much and Revolution will be down on its pilot week but not by a huge amount. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s little between all three.

    I wouldn’t even dare guess the ratings order. It could be anyone in the lead. I’m not a Castle fan but there’s been a lot of buzz for this ep and if the ‘all star’ DWTS isn’t a flop it will give a good lead in. CBS has left its Monday nights kind of exposed in an attempt to boost its Thursday line up. So I couldn’t guess how Mondays will go for them. Revolution will drop but by how much I don’t know. Its all to play for.

  • Martine

    The pilot wasn’t all that great. Why do people assume that those who watched it will return?

  • bluejays

    @Hardline Pro. Actually HFo got above 3’s right up until mid december last year. So it didn’t drop severely at all after ‘the first few eps’ unless by ‘first few’ you mean half a season??

    Castle also performs consistently and to a set pattern year in and year out and is a strong performer for ABC at ten.

    But…neither show has had to face a huge hit on NBC. Yes Smash did well in the first few weeks but Castle and HFO soon saw it off and it was over hyped and very badly done. Only time will tell if Revolution is another Smash or if it manages to become what NBC hope – the next Lost. Seen as I don’t have a cyrstal ball I can’t tell.

  • Carmen

    If the second episode of Revolution was going to air opposite the 3rd or 4th episode of H50 and Castle I would say it would begin its inevitable slide down to about a 3.2 or 3.3.
    As it is with these being the competition premieres, I’m guessing that Revolution will not see 3.0.

  • Nick

    DWTS: 3.9
    Castle: 3.3

    HIMYM: 4.8
    Partners: 3.9
    2BG: 5.8
    Mike & Molly: 4.9
    H50: 3.6

    Bones: 2.2
    TMD: 1.1

    The Voice: 4.2
    Revolution: 3.5

    1. CBS: 4.4
    2. NBC: 4.0
    3. ABC: 3.7
    4. Fox: 1.7

    Revolution will not be like Falling Skies. More like Once Upon a Time, a decrease in the first part of the season, then settling down at the end of the season. FS stabilized almost immediately.

  • Samuel

    I’d say about a 3.8. If I had seen the pilot online I would have NEVER watched it live, plus pretty much everywhere I’m seeing great word-of-mouth for it. Finally, I’m just really hoping it does good! Usually when I like shows (Chuck, Awake, etc.) they’re NBC dramas that do poorly, hopefully this isn’t another one’

  • bluejays

    @Nick – Wow your CBS numbers are way inflated! 5.8 for 2BG’s?

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