How Will NBC's 'Revolution' Hold Up in Week #2? Is it the 'Falling Skies' of the Broadcast World?

Categories: 1-Featured,Broadcast TV

Written By

September 23rd, 2012

Revolution returns for its second episode Monday night on the first official day of the new TV season. That means there will be original scripted competition going up against it  on ABC (Castle) and CBS (Hawaii Five-0).  Show ratings typically go down after the premiere, and the increased competition isn't going to help matters any. But not so fast say the fan boys (and girls): the premiere of Revolution was available online before it aired on TV, the second episode isn't!

Not being the premiere plus facing increased competition strike me as much bigger factors than online availability, so I can't imagine it not going down at least a little. My guess is it drops to at least somewhere around a 3.5 adults 18-49 rating vs. the 4.1 adults 18-49 rating for the premiere. But calling a spade a spade, I was surprised it premiered as well as it did.

At this point I'm wondering whether Revolution turns out to be the Falling Skies of the broadcast network world. That is, a show that consistently draws mostly negative feedback in the comments, even though it's consistently the networks' highest-rated scripted show with young adults!

 
  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @jake
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 7:50 PM
    “Revolution’s ratings will not do good at all against Hawaii 5-0 and Castle. My guess is:
    Castle- 13.4 million viewers, 3.6 demo.
    Hawaii 5-0- 12.7 million viewers, 3.2 demo.
    Revolution- 8.2 million viewers, 2.4 demo.
    In the first place NBC has put out very few hit shows in the last several years, plus it’s going up against two established hit shows. My guess it’ll get cancelled in a month.”

    +

    @jake
    Posted September 23, 2012 at 9:13 PM
    “Castle is aging and HF0 is not as strong, so I think it will above 3.5.
    The third week is decisive for the show, because the premieres will have ended, they need to play the cards really good to hold.”

    Is it 2.4 or 3.5? Are there two different Jakes or are you really Mitt Romney?

  • Ultima

    @Rena Moretti
    Once again, you focus only on the ageist, PR spin friendly “demo” at the exclusion of all realistic analysis.

    Wait, what?

    Live+SD Adults 18-49 is by far the best predictor demo for broadcast primetime to the point that any other demo numbers can usually be ignored. It most certainly is not used because it is a PR-friendly number. When networks want to spin, they typically use the mostly useless total viewers and/or live+7 numbers.

  • Acey

    The pilot was really disappointing. I won’t be sticking around. I do wish them the best though, I really like a few people in this.

  • Eric_Philly

    I underestimated the premiere, and while I think it will hold up well, it’s likely to lose a few tenths.

  • Hattie

    This type of show doesn’t do well on TV – we’ve seen it season after season and they never last. Poor Elizabeth Mitchell for always getting cast in these sci-fi-type thrillers… Assuming the ratings will drop to around a 3.5 next week, then steadily decrease throughout the season. Last week’s stellar ratings were definitely a surprise to me…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Are there two different Jakes or are you really Mitt Romney?”

    Unless it’s someone going through a lot of trouble, it’s two different jakes.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Once again, you focus only on the ageist, PR spin friendly “demo” at the exclusion of all realistic analysis.

    Perhaps as a consequence you actually manage to state that Falling Skies is a hit when it’s a show that can’t even get 4 million viewers regularly and dropped like a stone this season.

    That is why focusing on only part of the audience is just entirely pointless, even if it makes your buddies in the network PR Departments very happy with you.”

    Are you the crazy Rena that was one of our very first wacko commenters on the site when we started 5 years ago? You certainly sound like it.

    Where did you go for the last 4+ years? Plying your screwball rants about total viewers being important on other sites?

    Or did you take a little vacation from the crazy? Was it a heavily medicated vacation?

    What caused you to return? Early release?

  • Alex S

    I think Rev will hit 3.2 ish, it’s a pretty good show, the first episode had to be a little all over the place to get the story going, but it made it through there I think this week sets the bar for the show.

  • Terry

    Castle 3.2
    H50 3.5
    Revolution 3.5

    There is room for 3 hits.

  • Diana

    I say between 3.6/4.
    There is a bunch of viewers that left 10 pm Mondays. CSI Miami used to get more viewers than H50. If those viewers come back to NBC and stay there, I don’t see Revolution dropping that much.
    Both Castle and H50 are modest performers, I think Revolution can stay strong there.

  • Californiadgd

    Castle – 3.0
    Hawaii 5-O – 3.1
    Revolution – 3.5

  • Cory

    Hawaii won’t get 3.5, it didn’t get that when had 2BG as lead in with huge 7.1, Castle will probably do high 2s and Revolution mid 3s.

  • Mike

    Revolution: 3.6
    Hawaii Five 0: 3.4
    Castle: 2.8

  • FoxKid

    I really think that Fox’s “The Mob Doctor” is good. I hope it will increase in to 2s.

  • POI

    I’m a HF0 fan and im going to watch Revolution tonight because its that amazing.

  • Alex

    I would guess it’ll drop around a point (so a low 3). So basically a similar drop to Smash last season although Revolution will at least have a series of acceptable in built excuses for its drop with the return of original competition. The question will be whether it continues to drop or levels off.

  • peter

    It depends on how well the voice will perform , if the voice is same ratings as last monday then revolution will be steady as well near 4.

  • peter

    also mob doctor is dead. i can see it cancelled in about 2 episodes from now.

  • Mike

    @Cory
    I agree. If H50 got a 3.4 demo in the last season premiere with a 7.1 lead in, I doubt it will be able to get the same numbers this season.
    Numbers are going to be very interesting. Last season CBS got a very lucky break until Christmas with all the anticipation about Asthon getting Charlie’s role. And that helped all their Monday ‘s shows. It will be interesting to see what happens with CBS this year that the wont have 10 and 7 demo numbers to use as lead in. And for the first time in years NBC is bringing some competition at 10 pm. Rock Center news on Mondays are gone . LOL. Time to see how really strong their Monday shows are.
    I am very interested in POI numbers too. The show got stronger last season and everyone is saying it will be the breakout hit returning show.
    .

  • Smiten

    I think it’ll rise. I think a 4.2 will do. Those who had watched the pilot online might want to check out the 2nd episode. Am alone on this one.

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