The Cancellation Bear And The Renew / Cancel Index Return

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

September 24th, 2012


Monday September 24 was the official beginning of the 2012-13 broadcast primetime season, and that means among other things that the Cancellation Bear and the Renew / Cancel Index posts return on Tuesday, September 25! (at least for NBC and Fox, the other broadcast networks will follow next week (and even later for the CW) after they begin premiering shows).

A boon to fans not wanting to get invested in shows destined for the dustbin, and a bane to fans (and stars and producers!) wishing to ignore reality, the Renew / Cancel Index predicts the renewal and cancellation prospects for every primetime scripted show on the English broadcast networks.

The Index divides the new episode adults 18-49 average rating for each scripted show by its network's overall new show scripted adults 18-49 ratings average.

The *approximate* Index ranges and their default predictions:
  • Index of 0.90 and above - near certain renewal (over 0.70 for Friday (F) shows)
  • Index of 0.75-0.90 - a "toss up", could go either way, but higher numbers are better (0.55-0.70 for Friday (F) shows)
  • Index of 0.75 and below - near certain cancellation (below 0.55 for Friday (F) shows)

While there aren't any new quantitative methods being introduced this season, one thing I will be more sensitive to is a sharp late season ratings plunge that isn't long enough to move a show's overall ratings average very much. The Secret Circle late season ratings dive didn't move its Index into the danger zone, but was the apparent cause for the show's cancellation nevertheless.

One change that was introduced last season will certainly continue is that no show within a season (~22 episodes) of syndication (~88 total episodes) at the end of the 2012-13 season will ever drop below a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. Syndication economics, largely hidden to the public, can cause some decisions that otherwise run contrary to what's indicated by the ratings.

New! This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

To check out the Renew/Cancel Index posts from last season click here!

 
  • Jeff (Canada)

    All praise The Bear!

  • TonyR5

    Glad to see the Renew/Cancel Index returning. Now, when can we expect The Bubble Watch? Sunday?

  • James

    The bear must be angry after missing out meals of Body of Proof, Fringe, Unforgettable and Nikita.

  • Ricky

    I’d advise the bear to have fun gorging on TMD…but the indigestion might knock him out for a little while. Any ideas on what his second course will be? The New Normal? The Neighbors? Animal Practice?

  • rob60990

    the bear is ready. First up Mob Doctor. :D

  • Mary

    I’m curious. When are we going to see the new fan excuse bingo card?

  • Ricky

    @James: He had a meal of Unforgettable…but it wriggled out of his tummy before it could be digested. For which I am very grateful. :)

  • Dano

    Monday nights this year will shape up like Monday nights last year. Now that the scripted shows are back, Castle and 5-0 will pretty much split with Revolution in third place. Might not last the season. Earlier, Dancing will outdistance The Voice, as will the CBS comedies. And on Fox, the Mob Doctor will make the Fox execs wish for the good old days of Terra Nova.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The bear must be angry after missing out meals of Body of Proof, Fringe, Unforgettable and Nikita.”

    The bear is always hungry, but he’s never angry. ;)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’m curious. When are we going to see the new Fan Excuse Bingo card?”

    Next week, probably Monday. And thanks to a helpful commenter, who found a much better bingo card generating site, everyone will be able to make their own card and actually play. I may set up days for real time BINGO!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @TonyR5: I wouldn’t look for the Bubble Watch on Sunday anytime soon, but probably starting a week from Sunday I will post a “list of all shows” with indications for any that are renewed/canceled with discussion about something in the text. It’s possible that will be the approach all season long. Either way, other than the obvious hits like Big Bang Theory/Modern Family and obvious losers like The Mob Doctor, too many things will be “on the bubble” for a few weeks. The bear starts ASAP because he’s not willing to risk waiting and missing out on predicting a canceled show, but by the time this Sunday rolls around it could already be too late!

  • Max Vrany

    Still waiting on the cancellation bear merchandise.

  • fringewillget5seasons

    seems crazy everything’s back already but I’m looking forward to the Bear eating Mob Doctor asap.

  • Billy martins

    Please save mob doctors I love that show please don”t cancel that show!!!!!!

  • ogla sungutay

    OK! Let the massacre begin.

  • RyanCanada

    i love mob doctors to

  • Jared

    The Mob Doctor will be the bears first casualty.

  • TonyR5

    @RobertSeidman Sounds like a good plan. Thanks for the info!

  • joel

    The Mob Doctor wasn’t trying to commit suicide, it just wanted to be one with the bear.

  • CrimTV

    @Bill

    Oooh the game sounds really fun!

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