CBS's Kelly Kahl (@calibadger) took to Twitter today on a variety of topics, one being the importance of different age demos to CBS's business.
First of all, we're glad to see that Kelly's no retentionista, and while we have some theories why CBS is pushing the adults 25-54 PR angle harder than ever this year (a bit on that below), all I wanted to note was that for the purposes of the cancellation bear, and our predictions of the futures of individual broadcast primetime scripted shows, using relative adults 25-54 ratings wouldn't likely yield any different results than using adults 18-49 ratings as we do now.
What about DVR ratings?
Some time next week the Live+3 day program ratings will be available for premiere week and you'll see a lot of network PR about them, and on October 15 the Live+7 day ratings for premiere week will be available, and expect to be buried under the weight of a PR avalanche touting those.
While we use Live+Same Day relative ratings to make our predictions (primarily because they are available sooner), again, the predictions would be highly unlikely to change were we to use Live+3 day or Live+7 day ratings, since the relative ratings ratios are unlikely to change, and the combination of relative adults 18-49 Live+Same Day ratings have been very, very predictive in the past.
To the cancellation bear it really doesn't matter what relative ratings get compared, the same shows are going to get canceled, and be predicted to be canceled.
It's better to follow the bear than be chased by him. Follow The Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. #fearthebear
Why is CBS all of a sudden pushing harder on the adults 25-54 ratings PR button?
It's not to avoid negative season to season ratings comparisons. CBS is probably going to be down about the same % vs. last season in 18-49 as they are in 25-54.
My guess is that the big 25-54 PR push is happening to allow them to better tout their "We won the timeslot! We won the night!" daily PR skirmishes now that they have at least one competitor either "beating" or nearly "beating" them on every night among adults 18-49. But that's just the cynic in me.