ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Likely To Be Canceled After Slow Starts

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 2nd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-30, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :| :| :| 0.62
Castle :| :| :| 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.69
666 Park Avenue :cry: :cry: 0.69
Last Resort :cry: :cry: 0.72
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.95
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.05
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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ABC's rookie dramas Last Resort premiered with just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday at 8pm, and 666 Park Avenue started with just a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night. Because of that, they're both more likely to be canceled than renewed by May, 2013.

Why are Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue in more danger than Scandal, Castle and Private Practice which had similar ratings last week?

Veteran shows that are syndicated or in range of syndication like Castle and Private Practice get cut a lot of slack with their ratings. And sophomore shows like Scandal get cut at least a *little* more slack than rookies. That's not to say that all three of those veteran shows are in good shape for another season, just that after one week, I'm not ready to put any of them in danger.

This is just the first week for ABC's 2012-13 shows, more ratings information will likely cause many changes to these predictions in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • erwan from france

    Go grey’s for an 10th and final season !!

  • Jennifer

    Castle. :(

  • SG

    This is awful news, I liked both shows.

  • iMember

    I really want Last Resort to succeed! It’s a brilliant show and that’s just from the Pilot alone. I hope it can sustain the right numbers to keep it alive.

    And I’m always rooting for “Once” and ESPECIALLY “Revenge”! So I hope they keep it up all season long so we can see a Season 3 from both of them and so ABC Sundays can keep on being my favorite night of the week.

  • Bran

    I doubt TN will be likely to be renewed in a couple of weeks

  • Jojo

    I thought 666 park ave was pretty good :(

  • Michael

    Come on!! Please, give Last Resort a chance ABC.

  • Dennis

    Love The Middle, one of the most underrated shows at the moment.

  • tnetennba

    This really sucks. I don’t care about 666, but Last Resort is by far the best new show this season. Yes, the premise has some plausibility issues, but not really any more than any other serialized drama.

  • Michael Nicolosi

    Give last resort a chance abc!

  • omabin

    I loved both of the premieres (my two favs pilots of the season so far, with 666 beating revolution for me), but I agree that their ratings are not inspiring. This being said, DWTS just hit a 2.0, it will become embarassing for ABC in no time, so I think next year we might have some surprises. If ABC decides to bring DWTS back only in spring, there will be a lot of extra room in their schedule, so we might be in for a diffuclt year predictions wise.

  • Jason

    All the shows worth watching keep getting cancelled.
    Come on Last Resort !
    When are people going to get tired of the same old Medical/Crime/Legal shows and try something new!!!!!!

  • omabin

    This being said, I am super happy about Once and Revenge! Also, Grey’s, but that was more of a given. I think PP will be done after the 13 episodes (and I kind of want it to, as much as I like it), so I dont care fo its ratings anymore. Scandal is in trouble, but my argument to Last Resort and 666 still applies.

  • Skylar

    When do Suburgatory and Apt 23 return?

  • THE OLD MAN

    I admire the “guts” it took to say that “Last Resort” is in danger of becoming bear meat after One’s rampage, but (sorry One) I’m inclined to agree.

    Unlike LR, 666 is utterly lame & should definitely be on the menu.

  • Elena

    Does this take into account the Live + 3 Day ratings? Shows like Castle and PP actually gained a lot of viewers (Castle, for example, gained 2.5 million viewers). I wonder if your placement of these shows on the Renew/Cancel Index take that recently released factor into account.

  • One

    God DAMN YOU, AMERICA!!! You couldn’t do as was required and actually tune in to a SMART broadcast show could you!!! You just HAD to f___ w/ all of us who actually WANT programming like Last Resort!!! The formless idiotic mass will all be TURNED TO ASH for their DEFIANCE of America’s future!!!

  • Max Vrany
  • melbye

    Private Practice is so dead

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Does this take into account the Live + 3 Day ratings? Shows like Castle and PP actually gained a lot of viewers (Castle, for example, gained 2.5 million viewers). I wonder if your placement of these shows on the Renew/Cancel Index take that recently released factor into account.”

    The R/C index uses relative Live+Same Day ratings, unlikely to change predictions if L+3 relative ratings were compared, because all shows ratings increase with more days of DVR viewing factored in, and their relative positions remain pretty constant.

    Live+Same Day relative ratings comparisons have been very predictive in the past.

    More here:

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/01/network-pr-jedi-mind-tricks-live3-day-live7-day-ratings-and-your-favorite-shows-future/150841/

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/09/27/adults-18-49-25-54-livesame-day-live3-live7-its-all-the-same-to-the-cancellation-bear/150575/

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/09/30/livesd-adults-18-49-ratings-are-still-good-enough-for-us-part-ii/150775/

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