ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Likely To Be Canceled After Slow Starts

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 2nd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-30, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :| :| :| 0.62
Castle :| :| :| 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.69
666 Park Avenue :cry: :cry: 0.69
Last Resort :cry: :cry: 0.72
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.95
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.05
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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ABC's rookie dramas Last Resort premiered with just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday at 8pm, and 666 Park Avenue started with just a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night. Because of that, they're both more likely to be canceled than renewed by May, 2013.

Why are Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue in more danger than Scandal, Castle and Private Practice which had similar ratings last week?

Veteran shows that are syndicated or in range of syndication like Castle and Private Practice get cut a lot of slack with their ratings. And sophomore shows like Scandal get cut at least a *little* more slack than rookies. That's not to say that all three of those veteran shows are in good shape for another season, just that after one week, I'm not ready to put any of them in danger.

This is just the first week for ABC's 2012-13 shows, more ratings information will likely cause many changes to these predictions in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Michael

    @One… Calm down…

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I admire the “guts” it took to say that “Last Resort” is in danger of becoming bear meat after One’s rampage”

    You think the cancellation bear fears internet commenters?

    Please.

  • Tom

    Scandal is an eternity from syndication. I wouldn’t give it that much extra slack.

    Then again, with DWTS on the ropes, Last Resort and 666 uncertain to make it out of January, much less May, and PP (with only 13 episodes ordered, mind you) the worst show on the schedule, I can’t bet on Scandal’s death either.

  • Alley Car

    One… tape a pill and chill dude. It’s TV… not world politics

  • AustinGriffith

    No, Castle! :( The first two episodes have been really good. They’re still attracting lots of viewers though.

    Hopefully they’ll come back up soon.

  • Jay

    Move Scandal to either 8PM on Thursday or 10PM Sunday.

  • Dan

    ABC is hard to figure out. Safe shows are Grey’s, Castle, Revenge, and OUAT. Private Practice only has 13 episodes but no one has announced it as a final season. Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue are in trouble but I wouldn’t count them out just yet. One of the two will get “the bridge” extension (The Forgotten, Detroit 187, A Gifted Man) while the other one will probably be cancelled. I’d wait until November though. Modern Family and The Middle are both safe but its too early to tell for The Neighbors.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Scandal is an eternity from syndication. I wouldn’t give it that much extra slack.”

    One week, Tom, one week!

    I already violated my SEO principles by putting two shows in this headline, three would have been nearly unforgivable!

  • omabin

    I really think DWTS doom will have an impact on all of this later on. They will have to hold on to some marginal performances more than usual if they want to replace DWTS with dramas.

  • Jay S.

    Silly to include The Neighbors on this list based on one showing outside of its normal time slot.

    Also, WAY too early to pronounce Last Resort “likely to be canceled” given the time slot. If it somehow maintains its debut numbers ABC will probably be satisfied given how poorly other shows have done there.

  • Andrea

    I still firmly beleive that Castle will be fine. All of ABC’s 10pm shows are having issues. Castle is the most watched and has basically the same demo as the others, if not better.

  • greenmantis

    Looking at the list above, these are the only two shows on ABC I do watch. If these two get cancelled, bye-bye ABC.

  • OMG

    I think sooner or later, they will replace Dancing with The Stars with dramas. Sure, it is a lot cheaper to produce and earn the same ratings, but network executives should know that Dancing with The Stars is no longer sustainable for 2 cycles a season. They can experiment on more shows and give the shows a bit more time to grow, then they won’t have to make decisions such as knocking off a modestly-performing drama in the fall for midseason dramas or making “gut feeling” decisions like GCB vs Scandal.

  • Justin121

    Private Practice is more likely to be cancelled than renewed.

    The only thing setting Resort and 666 apart from Castle and Scandal is that the former two are more likely to have post-premier drop-offs. In a couple of weeks it’ll be clear which is which.

    You have to admit, Bill, this time around, a reality show could affect the renewal/cancellation of scripted shows, after the all-time lows Dancing with the Stars is hitting, and with it taking 3 prime-primetime hours of 2.0 or sub-2.0 ratings on mid-week 8pm and 9pm hours.

  • AJ

    Scandal could be this years Body of Proof.

  • Dan S

    I’m surprised Last Resort got 2 frowny faces. At best it’s a tossup based on 1 airing & 2.2 wasn’t that terrible considering its formidable competition. If it can stay above 2.0 it’ll definitely be off the bears radar for now. I think Scanal is in bigger trouble since it had a huge lead in from GA it wasted & went up the weaker RC & new Elementary.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan S: “If it can stay above 2.0 it’ll definitely be off the bears radar for now.”

    The problem is that with a 2.2 debut, it’s unlikely to stay above 2.0. It’s likely to drop significantly down into 1.5 territory, possibly as early as this week. How fast it will drop and to what level is the only question at this point. But my guess is that it will be well below 2.0 within a few episodes.

    Given the massive plausibility issues, I think people just aren’t going to buy it.

  • Greg

    I think 666 will receive the Pan Am treatment: air all 13 episodes, maybe a couple more than that and that’s it.

    I think ABC should give Private Practice a back 9 and air it after Revenge. PP was always a good retainer, but never a self-starter and that’s what it has to be now with DWTS as a lead in. Or maybe just move it back to its old timeslot and air Scandal after Revenge?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “You have to admit, Bill, this time around, a reality show could affect the renewal/cancellation of scripted shows, after the all-time lows Dancing with the Stars is hitting, and with it taking 3 prime-primetime hours of 2.0 or sub-2.0 ratings on mid-week 8pm and 9pm hours.”

    First of all, DWTS Monday ratings were just about equal to ABC’s scripted show average last week. While predicting reality shows is very tricky, at current relative ratings levels I don’t see it in danger.

    Second, why do people assume ABC would replace 3 hours of DWTS with 3 hours of dramas? Why not 3 hours of a *new* reality show? Or some subset of those 3 hours as reality?

  • Kenny

    Hold the phone have you guys WATCHED The Neighbors? and you people gave that 4 smiley faces? Hollywood Reporter said it was the WORST sitcome in 10 years, worse the “Work It” last year, and “Last Resort” going against the #1 comedy and probally the BIGGEST show right now Big Bang Theory and 666 Park Ave going against the BIGGEST football game NBC has seen in years. C`mon guys.

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