ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Likely To Be Canceled After Slow Starts

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 2nd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-30, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :| :| :| 0.62
Castle :| :| :| 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.69
666 Park Avenue :cry: :cry: 0.69
Last Resort :cry: :cry: 0.72
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.95
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.05
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

-
ABC's rookie dramas Last Resort premiered with just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday at 8pm, and 666 Park Avenue started with just a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night. Because of that, they're both more likely to be canceled than renewed by May, 2013.

Why are Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue in more danger than Scandal, Castle and Private Practice which had similar ratings last week?

Veteran shows that are syndicated or in range of syndication like Castle and Private Practice get cut a lot of slack with their ratings. And sophomore shows like Scandal get cut at least a *little* more slack than rookies. That's not to say that all three of those veteran shows are in good shape for another season, just that after one week, I'm not ready to put any of them in danger.

This is just the first week for ABC's 2012-13 shows, more ratings information will likely cause many changes to these predictions in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Fake Me Out

    @Bill Gorman

    “@Bill I hate Castle. I cannot be more objective here.”

    I wasn’t questioning your objectivity, just your understanding of how things work.

    I could be wrong but I don’t think he was saying he hates Castle and can’t be objective … I think he gave you the nickname Bill “I Hate Castle” Gorman and is questioning your objectivity since you refuse to accept his theory Castle is a lock because of foreign ratings and ABC ownership … then again I could misreading his comments.

    ymmv

  • TheEmulator23

    A real shame on “Last Resort.” It’s the show I’m most looking forward to seeing a 2nd episode of. Well acted & has a very interesting premise that can go a thousand different ways as far as storylines.

  • wallaby2012

    Last Resort is awesome – 666 just sucks.

  • Fake Me Out

    IMHO

    Last Resort is the worst piece of crap to hit the air in many a year. It’s plot is insane, it’s badly acted, the effects are amatuer hour and it appears to have been directed by a rabbid monkey. If ABC lets this hunk o’ junk last to Novemeber sweeps I will be shocked.

    ymmv

    PS: I don’t watch the show so have no clue about it … the above was just to see if I could provoke the One into more amusing tirades … now that’s entertainment!

  • badman

    they are both very good shows but especially last resort! people should just give it a shot and you will see ;)

  • s0303

    last resort was the best pilot i’ve seen in years so i hope it will rebound :(

  • KJ Styles

    @Fake Me Out- I disagree entirely. Last Resort is the best new show of the season EASILY. Probably the best new show of the last few years (with only Person Of Interest coming close IMO) and Andre Braugher is a GREAT actor.

    I really want this show to succeed, and I feel the only reason for it’s subpar ratings are it’s timeslot. Yeah I know that’s Fan Excuse Bingo material, but c’mon ABC, every new show you’ve aired against Big Bang Theory has gotten killed in the ratings, especially dramas. What they should have done was lead off Thursdays with Grey’s Anatomy (since it’s a ratings winner) and then have Last Resort follow it at either 9 or 10. Or air it at a different night altogether.

    From here on out, I’m gonna start DVR’ing Big Bang Theory live and watch Last Resort live, since BBT doesn’t need the ratings help.

  • KJ Styles

    @Bill- No broadcast scripted shows currently. I watched House till it ended, and 30 Rock until I got tired of it. I watch every NFL game my schedule allows, am addicted to Red Zone, a couple cable dramas (SOA, Copper, Justified in the spring), Mythbusters, PTI and Top Gear.

    I watched House until it ended too (even though the final two seasons sucked). I love PTI and most of the ESPN shows. I watch NFL games unless matchup is bad (I skipped the Thursday night game last week and I’ll skip it again this week, as well as next Monday nights game). But I watch EVERY Giants game because that’s my team.

    If you like SOA (which I do as well) you’d probably like Person Of Interest. While their premise’s are different, they feature the same amount of action.

  • Stella

    Smells like the final season of Castle to me, or this one and a final 13 eps next season.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “From here on out, I’m gonna start DVR’ing Big Bang Theory live and watch Last Resort live, since BBT doesn’t need the ratings help.”

    Are you in a Nielsen family?

    If not, your actual viewing is irrelevant.

  • Jason

    They need to put an established show where last resort is then move it to different time or even day. Nothing works on that time slot for some reason so move it. You put a show with an established base there it will be fine

  • KJ Styles

    @Bill- How is my viewing irrelevant? If that’s the case, then everybody outside of Nielsen box owners viewing is irrelevant. Which would make absolutely no sense since only a select few people own those.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @KJ Styles, Yep, irrelevant. Rage against the machine!

  • little_big_man

    @KJ Styles:
    - Yes, everybody’s (outside of Nielsen box owner’s) viewing is irrelevant!
    - Yes, that makes absolutely no sense, but is unfortunately the outdated reality…

  • Kavyn

    Last Resort and 666 are the only new shows I like from ABC haha, damn that totally sucks.

  • Spencer

    SO How is 666 & Last Resort probably going to get cancelled but The Neighbors gets four smiley faces?? FACT: those ratings (for the neighbors) will plummet this week. If i had to choose between saving LR and 666, i’d choose 666.

  • KJ Styles

    Lame, only 25,000 people in America own Nielsen boxes. What’s the point of even tracking ratings if there’s absolutely nothing I can do to help the fate of the shows I like?

  • Dave

    The Last Resort pilot episode was superb, probably the best one of this season, the one good thing about last weeks numbers was the retention across the half hours was superb, hopefully it will hold its numbers and start to gain a few in the coming weeks.

  • Matt H.

    You are jumping the gun here. If the numbers trend down or even stay steady, these shows may not last. If the numbers trend up, you will be wrong.

    But one outing is not enough to judge. Even Lone Star got two showings before it got pulled.

  • Networkman

    I wouldn’t put Last Resort on this list yet. It had great repeat numbers on Friday and word of mouth is spreading. If it can at least stay in the 2.2-2.5 range for a few weeks, I feel ABC should be patient with it and work on building the show. It is going up against The Big Bang Theory and X-Factor. I think its numbers are acceptable for this timeslot which hasn’t had a hit since Ugly Betty.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures