ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Likely To Be Canceled After Slow Starts

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 2nd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-30, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :| :| :| 0.62
Castle :| :| :| 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.69
666 Park Avenue :cry: :cry: 0.69
Last Resort :cry: :cry: 0.72
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.95
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.05
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

-
ABC's rookie dramas Last Resort premiered with just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday at 8pm, and 666 Park Avenue started with just a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night. Because of that, they're both more likely to be canceled than renewed by May, 2013.

Why are Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue in more danger than Scandal, Castle and Private Practice which had similar ratings last week?

Veteran shows that are syndicated or in range of syndication like Castle and Private Practice get cut a lot of slack with their ratings. And sophomore shows like Scandal get cut at least a *little* more slack than rookies. That's not to say that all three of those veteran shows are in good shape for another season, just that after one week, I'm not ready to put any of them in danger.

This is just the first week for ABC's 2012-13 shows, more ratings information will likely cause many changes to these predictions in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Networkman

    ABC should really think about placing a drama on Friday Night. While Made in Jersey will be falling, Castle or even Body of Proof may have done fairly well behind Shark Tank.

  • Kavyn

    If I had to choose between saving Last Resort and 666, I think Last Resort would be the wiser choice. For one, 666 doesn’t exactly pair well with many shows except Once (which is partnered up with Revenge right now), so if it stays for a second season it’s basically stuck at Sundays at 10. While Last Resort can be moved around and could easily be much more successful on a different timeslot.

    I like both, but if I were ABC and could only pick one, I’d keep LR.

  • ann

    It’s awful that they talk cancellation after one airing of one episode of a program. Networks just don’t give new shows a chance to succeed.

  • Ryan

    That’s too bad. Last Resort is easily the best new show of the season :(

  • Brian

    To me, Last Resort is bubbling right now. If they can hang on to what they have and/or possibly grow, they have a shot. If they can’t, bye-bye season.

    666 Park Avenue is in trouble, it couldn’t hold onto the Once Upon a Time/Revenge audience. It’s more likely to not make it past 13.

    Of those three other series, I’d say Castle is fairly safe. Scandal is hurting though, and it probably will suffer the same fate as Body of Proof.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “You are jumping the gun here. If the numbers trend down or even stay steady, these shows may not last. If the numbers trend up, you will be wrong.

    But one outing is not enough to judge. Even Lone Star got two showings before it got pulled.”

    Lone Star got two airings, but we (and anyone else without their head in the sand) knew it would be canceled after seeing the ratings for episode one.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Lame, only 25,000 people in America own Nielsen boxes. What’s the point of even tracking ratings if there’s absolutely nothing I can do to help the fate of the shows I like?”

    25,000 households to be correct, lots more than 25,000 people, but my guess is that will do little to calm your rage against the machine.

    And yep, you’re powerless, but also responsibility-less. If your favorite show gets canceled it wasn’t because you forgot to watch. Not your fault!

    And why track ratings? Well, for freaks like me, it’s fun to see the daily report card on this huge industry. Nothing else like that out there for other industries.

    For non-freaks? Well, maybe you’d just like to be assured your favorite show is doing OK, or you’d like to know it’s doomed and want to bail early.

  • Ultima

    @ann
    It’s awful that they talk cancellation after one airing of one episode of a program. Networks just don’t give new shows a chance to succeed.

    You are aware Bill Gorman doesn’t represent the networks, right? He’s just opining. It’s no different than what you see on every single sports network and website year round.

    And, for the record, a show airing in broadcast primetime hasn’t been pulled after one episode since Emily’s Reasons Why Not in January 2006.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “SO How is 666 & Last Resort probably going to get cancelled but The Neighbors gets four smiley faces?? FACT: those ratings (for the neighbors) will plummet this week. If i had to choose between saving LR and 666, i’d choose 666.”

    If/when The Neighbors ratings fall, it’s predicted fate will change. No need to assume future ratings, there will be plenty of time to predict other show’s cancellation.

  • Ultima

    Something is missing…

    Oh, I know. While it is far too early to begin predicting fall 2013 schedules, spring 2013 is completely reasonable.

    Thus, we need the single greatest schedule prediction, ever, ever.

    Saturday
    8:00 – DWTS
    10:00 – DWTS Results

    ;)

  • Knight

    My New show for Thursday… Had to DVR it, and watch it again and again…The best part was when he Fired that Missile and then told they to try him…. No guts no Glory….
    Is ABC crazy??? You can’t cancel.. This show has me craving 4 more..

  • Debsafan

    By all means show a show once then cancell it. Why not put them on Saturday night instead of cancelling a show. Pretty soon all of us will be sitting home in front of the TV. There want be any money to do anything. Hell you’ll be lucky to have electric and a antenna. I like 666 Park Ave. and Last Resort. ABC probably thinks Lart Resort is to close to the truth show.

  • rehabber

    I really liked 666, but then any supernatural show gets put on my DVR.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “By all means show a show once then cancell it. Why not put them on Saturday night instead of cancelling a show. Pretty soon all of us will be sitting home in front of the TV. There want be any money to do anything. Hell you’ll be lucky to have electric and a antenna. I like 666 Park Ave. and Last Resort. ABC probably thinks Lart Resort is to close to the truth show.”

    You may be confused. I didn’t predict the two shows would be canceled immediately, just eventually based on the results of their first episode.

    And you seem to have forgotten about everything else on TV. Last night, ~70% of the adults 18-49 TV viewers were watching something other than big English broadcast networks (mostly cable, but also Spanish broadcast, and smaller broadcast nets). That’s a bit higher than usual because of the MNF game, but 60%+ always.

  • rob60990

    YEAH at Revenge having 5 smileys while Scandal has 3 and airs in the best timeslot. lmao.

    “every new show you’ve aired against Big Bang Theory has gotten killed in the ratings, especially dramas.”

    TBBT pulls huge ratings but not big enough that you can’t program against it.

  • Jon

    I miss the old days where a show didn’t have to go gang busters right out of the gate to become a hit show. Sometimes some shows just take time to gain an audience. If you look back years ago, some of the most successful shows would have never made it, if they looked at one or two airings and said, yep low ratings, time to yank it. Is it really that expensive to at least tape a whole season and see what happens. Every show should at least be given that much

  • Ultima

    @Jon
    Is it really that expensive to at least tape a whole season and see what happens

    Yes.

    Every show should at least be given that much

    Then there would be significantly fewer pilots that went to series (based on the lack of space). Why shouldn’t those shows get a chance?

  • Nick

    Wait, what?
    Charlie’s Angels and Missing premiered with 2.1 and 2.0, and started with “bubble” status. But Last Resort gets higher and starts as “likely to be cancelled”? I don’t get it.

  • v

    Scandal should probably be marked in the Body Of Proof territory.
    ABC owned and ratings we dont have access too.

    Castle is syndicated so is good, might get moved to different slot.

    I wonder how much longer DWTS has left. I know we dont cover reality.

  • Bookworm

    I say Last Resort and Park 666 are gone.

    Private Practice will probably have a last season since Kate is leaving; not sure if the current will be the last one.

    Scandal is renewed for a third season but only 13 episodes (like this season, which I don’t expect to get more orders).

    Castle is renewed for a final season.

    Grey, OUAT, Revenge and Modern Family all get full season orders. Grey might be the last or second to last; I think it’s time to close it up but if the ratings stay the same….It will continue for 10 more years (LOL).

    I’m indifferent towards the rest.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures