ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Likely To Be Canceled After Slow Starts

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 2nd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-30, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :| :| :| 0.62
Castle :| :| :| 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.69
666 Park Avenue :cry: :cry: 0.69
Last Resort :cry: :cry: 0.72
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.95
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.05
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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ABC's rookie dramas Last Resort premiered with just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday at 8pm, and 666 Park Avenue started with just a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night. Because of that, they're both more likely to be canceled than renewed by May, 2013.

Why are Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue in more danger than Scandal, Castle and Private Practice which had similar ratings last week?

Veteran shows that are syndicated or in range of syndication like Castle and Private Practice get cut a lot of slack with their ratings. And sophomore shows like Scandal get cut at least a *little* more slack than rookies. That's not to say that all three of those veteran shows are in good shape for another season, just that after one week, I'm not ready to put any of them in danger.

This is just the first week for ABC's 2012-13 shows, more ratings information will likely cause many changes to these predictions in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Bookworm

    I add that Last Resort and park 66 are only gone if they continue to drop in rating. If they stay steady, I think it will come down to one or the other.

  • donnie

    F— ABC!!!!

  • Rooks

    Shame about last resort, but it never had a chance in that time slot. Castle is too close to syndication to be in any real danger for now…they’ll probably have to give away the last season for almost nothing, though, if the ratings continue to drop.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Wait, what?
    Charlie’s Angels and Missing premiered with 2.1 and 2.0, and started with “bubble” status. But Last Resort gets higher and starts as “likely to be cancelled”? I don’t get it.”

    A year older, a year wiser. Or in this case, slightly more decisive.

    If their relative ratings improve, predictions will too.

  • Mike

    Sort of bums me out. I really liked 666 Park. Not saying it was the best show but felt it had serious potential. Come on Vanessa Williams and Terry Oquinn? How could this NOT stay on the air even if the pilot seemed a bit clunky at times. I still liked it. It had something. I think they need to find their rhythm. Maybe spend a little more time developing the regular characters on the show and not the guest stars.

  • Matthew

    Last Resort was a very well done pilot Scott Speedman and Andre Baugher were excellent and gave commanding performances.I love the fact that the show is kinda realistic in some ways at least especially about the conspiracy theories not being able to trust many people and discovering that they were all in it together.The pilot especially had many interesting twists and turns that were gripping and captivating . ABC needs to learn its lesson and stop canceling good shows they never ever give any new show excluding Modern and a few others a fair chance.

  • KMS

    I was so disappointed when I saw the ratings for these shows. I really want to see what happens on both of them. Although imperfect, Last Resort’s pilot really intrigued me, and 666 Park Avenue was a nice combination of sexy and creepy. I think ABC is promoting it poorly. I was in since I like Terry O’Quinn, but I think the ads are confusing as to what the show is about. Oh well, it’s not like I shouldn’t watch less TV.

  • Doug

    66 Park has a chance IF it doesn’t drop off dramatically. Sundays at 10pm has been a tough slot for ABC. But if it suffers the typical new-series decline, it’s probably 13-and-done.

    It’s an intriguing show, just not extremely interesting. I’ll stick around for Williams and O’Quinn, but I’m rather meh on it.

    Last Resort is in the same boat – it really needs to stay where it is to have a chance. We’ll see where it goes.

    If DWTS stays at these levels in the spring, there’s no way it will be back next season in its current form. It eats up far too much real estate to get away with pulling such dull numbers.

  • Temis

    Last Resort is too male skewing for ABC, it never had a chance, especially in the infamous deathslot. It would have done better ion FOX. 666 should have done fine – good match for ABC’s demo, good timeslot – so if it can’t hold its own, it deserves to die.

  • Al

    DWTS should be cancelled after this season, ratings suck. Mid-season schedule should be:

    Monday:
    8:00 – Castle
    9:00 – Body of Proof (January)
    10:00 – Zero Hour (January)

    Tuesday:
    8:00 – Happy Endings
    8:30 – Don’t Trust the B
    9-10 – The Bachelor(January-March) Wife Swap and Primetime: What Would You Do? in April-May

    Wednesday:
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – How to Live with Your Parents (January)
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – Suburgatory
    10:00 - Nashville

    Thursday:
    8:00 – Wipeout(January)
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Mistresses (spring)

    Sunday:
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – Revenge
    10:00 – Red Widow (January)

  • POI

    i want last resort to get better ratings or atleast get a new timeslot to see if it gets better ratings there because this is a death timeslot for abc everything gets canceled there.

  • Jaye C

    Thought I read somewhere that this was Private Practices last season.

  • Joel

    There was a time I watched quite a few ABC shows. Now I stick to cable, better quality, no Grey’s Anatomy influence(Which ruined network shows for guys)and you know the show will stick around rather than invest time in something that’ll be cancelled.

  • NJ Viewer

    That news just keeps confirming what I already knew: people want to watch crap.

  • chimpo

    Well Castle has syndication deals in US ( TNT and local stations ), it has strong international sales, it has really good DVD sales, it has bestselling Novels and Graphic Novels, hell it even has it’s own coffee brand. I have a feeling that ABC Studios is making quite a lot of cash on this show.

    And if Body of Proof was renewed just because of international sales then I don’t see why they wouldn’t renew Castle for next season.

  • Annie’sGotAGun

    666 deserves to die, Last Resort however NBC should nurture becuase that series has a lot of potential and the perfect show to combine with the Joss Whedon Shield show should it go to series. If ABC wants to start pulling in the male demographic they have to fight for it.

  • Annie’sGotAGun

    I meant ABC not NBC…

  • Matthew

    NJ Viewer
    Posted October 3, 2012 at 5:44 AM
    That news just keeps confirming what I already knew: people want to watch crap.

    Why are there so many rude users on this site?

  • Mary

    As far as the Winter Schedule here is what i think…

    Sunday:
    8 OUAT
    9 Revenge
    10 Zero Hour as a mini series and Scandal in the spring

    Monday:
    8-10 Bachelor/DWTS
    10 Castle

    Tuesday
    8-9 Happy Endings/Apt 23/DWTS results
    9 Body of Proof
    10 Last Resort

    Wednesday
    8 The Middle
    8:30 Family Tools/How to live…
    9 Modern Family
    9:30 Suburgatory
    10 Nashville

    Thursday:
    8 Private Practice or wipeout
    9 Grey’s Anatomy
    10 Red Widow

    Friday:
    8 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Reba
    9 Shark Tank
    10 20/20

    Mistresses is left to air in the Summer…

  • dave

    They each had one episode I mean give them a chance!!!!!

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