ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Likely To Be Canceled After Slow Starts

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 2nd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-30, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :| :| :| 0.62
Castle :| :| :| 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.69
666 Park Avenue :cry: :cry: 0.69
Last Resort :cry: :cry: 0.72
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.95
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.05
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

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ABC's rookie dramas Last Resort premiered with just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday at 8pm, and 666 Park Avenue started with just a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night. Because of that, they're both more likely to be canceled than renewed by May, 2013.

Why are Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue in more danger than Scandal, Castle and Private Practice which had similar ratings last week?

Veteran shows that are syndicated or in range of syndication like Castle and Private Practice get cut a lot of slack with their ratings. And sophomore shows like Scandal get cut at least a *little* more slack than rookies. That's not to say that all three of those veteran shows are in good shape for another season, just that after one week, I'm not ready to put any of them in danger.

This is just the first week for ABC's 2012-13 shows, more ratings information will likely cause many changes to these predictions in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “They each had one episode I mean give them a chance!!!!!”

    Ah, their “chance” was getting put on the schedule in the first place. They’ve squandered it.

  • brutony

    Um, theyve been on ONCE-a minute, can you people gives these shows a friggin MINUTE?

  • Baron Cathode

    So now shows get only a single episode before being given up upon? My God, I’m glad that “All in the Family” didn’t premiere in this cutthroat, horrible atmosphere…it wouldn’t have made it past Season One.

  • Baron Cathode

    “They’ve squandered it”…

    Uhm, no they haven’t. They’ve been introduced into an atmosphere and business model that covets only the very short term. Instead of nurturing shows with obvious quality (and I’m not talking about specific shows here, just the “give up on them after one episode” mentality ONLY), and possibly garnering huge profits in advertising if the show turns out to be a hit later on, they’re all banking on the ‘flash in the pan’ crap that grabs people’s attention for a second because of overhype, some trend, or star, then disappears once people realize the Emperor has no clothes.

    Don’t play into this mindset, it’s incredibly superficial.

  • Honeybee

    The way Scandal is going, can they pull it off the air before all 1 episodes air? Also since the L+3 ratings are higher for Scandal…. Can that be a factor towards its renewal or a back 9 pick up?

  • Aaron

    Why are you writing off shows 2 days after they come out. 666 and Last Resort were also up against NFL. I recorded them and will watch them tonight but when football season ends, I will watch them when they air.

    Not all shows can have high ratings day 1. It takes time for people to notice it and get used to the stories and characters. I didn’t watch Revenge at all last year but I started watching it on ABC.com this summer and now my wife and I are hooked. If it were canceled we would be out of luck.

  • Riff Rafferty

    Sorry to be the bearer of obvious news but this is the final season of “Private Practice.” ABC got what they wanted out of it, it had a good run, and Kate Walsh IS the show. There is no reason to continue without her. Certainly not with the numbers it’s putting up.

  • OERM

    So mad with ABC, Private Practice should go back to Thursdays at 10 pm just after Grey’s Anatomy for the final episodes, this is definitly the last season, think and put it again, it’s the right match with Grey’s, Scandal will not last.

  • Austin

    666 Park was amazing! I think they should have stuck it in between OUAT and Revenge and that might have given it better ratings

  • Montecore

    Last Resort is an interesting show and I hope they give it a chance. I really liked 666 Park Avenue. The religous right will probably make sure that show doesn’t last.

  • groove365

    If the networks would give a little more slack to new shows I would be more inclined to try them.
    I saved myself a lot of trouble by not trying any new dramas until they look like they will get a second season over the last few years.

    Eat hearty Cancellation Bear.

  • Leoben Conoy

    “Last Resort is an interesting show and I hope they give it a chance. I really liked 666 Park Avenue. The religous right will probably make sure that show doesn’t last.”

    The religious right will probably make sure the same happens to Last Resort then. I cant imagine that they are happy that this about a show that a US Navy submarine Captain questions orders coming from the chain of command.

  • ManiacalZebra

    Castle just started in syndication here this week, so I’m hoping that the deal with help save it. Monday at 10 really needs at least one more-sedate show. Lots of explosions and shootings don’t interest me, especially right before bed. (I feel older than I actually am.)

  • Patrick G.

    I thought the Cancellation Bear only ate NBC shows? When did he start devouring ALL the networks? And why was he originally only an NBC predator?

    666 was, pardon the pun, God-awful with its premiere. What made ABC think people want to watch such depressing, hellish drivel on a weekly basis mystifies me!?! Did they learn NOTHING from “The River” last year? I guess the Devil made them do it again ;)

    As for “Last Resort,” I think the show has some “LOST” potential in the long run, but I’m very surprised the premiere ranked as low as it did. A nuclear war and attacking our own just hit too close to home, I guess, and the entire attack and retribution seemed very contrived for 40 minutes of story. This should have been a 2-hour premiere with more explanation and build-up. ABC blew it here! Shame. I think they had potential if the premise had been tweaked. The show is a “Last Resort” indeed :(

  • Hexx182

    I would be VERY disappointed if Last Resort got canceled and The Neighbors didn’t!! Last Resort is one of the best shows this fall!! 666 is an ok show and if it stays I’ll watch, if not I won’t cry over it…

  • a p garcia

    I think some ABC network executive wants TLR cancelled b/c it is military and Hollywood hates the military. Why else would it be put against XF(FOX) on one channel and BBT(CBS)on another and both of these are ratings jugernauts with BBT being one of the biggest. NBC occupies time on yet another channel

  • ClamCam

    Last Resort is a great show, it has already good word of mouth and in the L+3 showed a lot of gain (also in the encore of friday it got a 1.1). Obviously going against the premiere of TBBT didnt help but I think tonight’s numbers will match or increase over the pilot.
    Being said that, this show will work much better as a 13 episode per year, it can get really old, really fast….same for revolution…(sensing FlashForward all over again!)

  • Randy

    The problem with a show like 666 Park Avenue is that it’s more of a horror / ghostly type of show, and most of those shows do NOT make it for long on REGULAR tv. I think Grimm is probably the longest, but I think it’s ratings aren’t that great either, but it gets slack because it’s a Friday, and it’s also on NBC. Shows like Haunted, Fear Itself, V, Persons Unknown just don’t last that long. These networks should I guess stop it with the horror type of shows because they aren’t working. I like a lot of them except for V which got boring pretty fast, but most people don’t want to watch horror shows.

  • Randy

    The Neighbors went down 38% from last week!

  • ….

    ABC’s schedule (what I hope for):
    Mondays:
    8-10PM: Dancing with The Stars
    10PM: Castle

    Tuesdays:
    8PM: Dancing with the Stars
    9PM: Revenge
    10PM: Private Practice

    Wednesdays:
    8PM: The Middle
    8:30PM: The Neighbors
    9:00PM Modern Family
    9:30PM Suburgatory
    10PM: Last Resort

    Thursdays:
    8:00PM: Happy Endings
    8:30PM: Don’t Trust the B— in Apt. 23
    9PM: Grey’s Anatomy
    10PM: Nashville

    Fridays:
    8PM: Last Man Standing
    8:30PM Family Tools
    9:00PM: Shark Tank
    10PM: 20/20

    Sundays:
    8PM: Once Upon a Time
    9PM: 666 Park Avenue
    10PM: Scandal

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