ABC: 'Last Resort' & '666 Park Avenue' Likely To Be Canceled After Slow Starts

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 2nd, 2012

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-30, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Private Practice :| :| :| 0.62
Castle :| :| :| 0.69
Scandal :| :| :| 0.69
666 Park Avenue :cry: :cry: 0.69
Last Resort :cry: :cry: 0.72
The Middle :) :) :) :) 0.95
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 1.05
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.44
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.81

-
ABC's rookie dramas Last Resort premiered with just a 2.2 adults 18-49 rating last Thursday at 8pm, and 666 Park Avenue started with just a 2.1 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday night. Because of that, they're both more likely to be canceled than renewed by May, 2013.

Why are Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue in more danger than Scandal, Castle and Private Practice which had similar ratings last week?

Veteran shows that are syndicated or in range of syndication like Castle and Private Practice get cut a lot of slack with their ratings. And sophomore shows like Scandal get cut at least a *little* more slack than rookies. That's not to say that all three of those veteran shows are in good shape for another season, just that after one week, I'm not ready to put any of them in danger.

This is just the first week for ABC's 2012-13 shows, more ratings information will likely cause many changes to these predictions in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jose Ruiz

    I think 666 will get another full season but that’s it. Poor Vanessa Williams can catch a break and get a hit.

  • javlouid

    Last Resort was great! It was exciting and I was on the edge of my seat. Come on people don’t let a good show escape this year. Watch it please!!!

  • rob60990

    “I think some ABC network executive wants TLR cancelled b/c it is military and Hollywood hates the military. Why else would it be put against XF(FOX) on one channel and BBT(CBS)on another and both of these are ratings jugernauts with BBT being one of the biggest. NBC occupies time on yet another channel”

    X Factor is hardly a ratings juggernaut.

  • Zillajay23

    I only watch cable shows they at least get a chance smart original shows are never allowed to grow an audience anymore on network tv. It’s just your standard police procedural shows with a new twist. Like Vegas I saw the preview though maybe might have to check it out it’s an interesting subject matter and time the 60′s the Mob and Vegas. Turns out it’s a crime of the week series that is just like every other show solve a new case each week.

  • E

    Better not cancel Last Resort, we need more action and sci-fi shows enough with horrible singing Glee, american idol, whatever and the 10 millionth cop show!

  • how are u

    I really want Last Resort to succeed! I really like the Last Resort.

  • Mary

    Last Resort is the new Firefly high quality show that people are just not watching. If ABC is retarded and cancels the show hopefully it will get picked by one of the premium networks like Showtime or HBO.

  • Joseph A

    I think you are pretty far off on 666 , their numbers were okay.
    As for Last Resort , I am more surprised it was ever allowed to air.

  • Lucy

    Its too early to say 666 is dead, only one episode aired, but I say lets wait and see how these next three weeks go.

  • Matt

    Dont ask me why Castle is in the .60 range, considering how consistent it was viewers wise. (10.5M vs. 10.3M)

    This is most defintely PP’s final season.

    Greys will at least last another 10th and 11th season at ABC, considering how royal it is praised as there. Lol.

  • MB

    ABC is a network. And unfortunately for it, it must air something against the ratings juggernaut that is BBT.

    I don’t believe Last Resort is costing it much. No big stars; no big salaries.

    What can ABC do? If money is the answer—if the ratings aren’t high enough for a scripted show, and they never will be—reality is the only way. Put up another Shark Tank or Wipeout and take the drubbing.

  • Michelle

    I don’t want Castle to be cancelled!

  • Patrick G.

    The thing that amazes me most with “Last Resort” is that ABC tried it AT ALL. Paul Lee has canceled every male-skewing series on ABC since he took over from McPherson (“V”, “The River,” “Charlie’s Angels,” etc.) and some of those had stable enough ratings to garner short season, schedule-spackle renewals. Clearly he thought LR would be their new “LOST,” but ABC needs to get it through their thick heads….your network is a heavily female-skewing entity, and if it isn’t a variation of a soap opera, any other type of genre on ABC aside from comedy and reality just don’t work!! Sad, but true. Please stop green-lighting good male-skewing dramas only to cancel them. Let NBC or the other networks have them so you stop alienating the few male viewers you have, and the viewers get more than just a handful of episodes!!

  • Patrick G.

    And can Bill or Robert answer my original question, please? I really want to know. Here is is again….”I thought the Cancellation Bear only ate NBC shows? When did he start devouring ALL the networks? And why was he originally only an NBC predator?”

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “And can Bill or Robert answer my original question, please? I really want to know. Here is is again….”I thought the Cancellation Bear only ate NBC shows? When did he start devouring ALL the networks? And why was he originally only an NBC predator?”

    He’s always been network agnostic, but to simplify my editorial process each week, he only appeared in the NBC post (because in reverse alphabetical order NBC appears on top).

    Since he has his own Twitter account now (@TheCancelBear) and is commenting on Twitter about all broadcast scripted shows, he’s probably going to roam around a bit more and appear in other network’s posts besides NBC.

  • Michelle

    What’s the point of watching TV since I can’t help the shows I watch?

  • Kathie Strauss

    Last Resort is awesome. Please, Please don’t cancel. Move it, if you have to, and give it a chance. NYPD didn’t rate well either it’s first season!!! Andre Braugher and his whole cast are terrific and deserve the shot.

  • Patrick G.

    Thanks for the explanation, Bill. I think the Cancellation Bear is so essentially a part of TVBTN now that he should be your overall mascot, eating all shows with abandon when they fail !! People like mascots. Taco Bell made a HUGE mistake getting rid of their chihuahua, but they caved to the Hispanic population’s cries of stereotyping, when all that dog was was FUN!! Bring on the bear !! ;)

    GRRRRRRRRRRRRR

  • rkurtiak

    Well at least revenge and once upon a time are doing really good.

  • travis

    No surprize for me on 666. It was so boring. Felt like i was watching Devil’s Advocate with lower calibur talent.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures