CBS: 'Hawaii Five-0' & 'Blue Bloods' Are Certain To Be Renewed, The Syndication Gods Demand It!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) :oops: (canceled 10/10) 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.47
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
Partners :oops: 0.85
Vegas :| :| :| 0.85
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.86

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10/10 Update: Made In Jersey is the first canceled show of the season.
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Last season the Renew/Cancel Index adopted the rule of "If a show will be within one season of syndication at the end of this season, it will fall no further than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation". Now, at least for CBS (and perhaps other nets later), I'm taking it up a notch.

Since CBS is a well oiled syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty) that the syndication gods provide I am christening a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

On that basis, I have moved both Hawaii Five-0 (already sold to TNT) and Blue Bloods to "certain to be renewed". Cue both doubting and relieved commenters!

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey is the biggest CBS Fall premiere drama flop in quite some time (arguably, ever). It's certain to be canceled, the only question is when.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ryne

    Will someone at CBS please put Partners out of its misery. That show is so awful. Even the hot chick doesn’t make it watchable. Bring back Rules soon!

  • AlexFan

    Speaking as a big #H50 and Blue Bloods fan this is wonderful news. Also it’s becoming apparent that #H50 is gaining ground on the other shows just like in the past, hopefully the positive trend continues. I know haters are out there but I have nothing bad to say about #H50’s competition they are all great shows and I do believe the Monday at 10:00 spot is the toughest night on tv.

  • Honey Badger

    I am predicting The Mentalist will be canceled. This show was losing viewers last year with the constant Red John themes after the storyline should have been ended, and after tonight’s weird show they will have lost many more viewers.

    This is sad because it used to be a great show, and had the perfect ending for the Red John storyline, with a great actor playing Red John. It fit the story line, and the Law and The Mentalist chasing Red John could make mistakes and keep going, but if Red John ever made a mistake or miscalculation – that would be the end of him. Then the writers ran out of ideas and kept the Red John storyline going, very bad.

    The writers clearly ran out of ideas and gave up last year, and this year the show has been horrible. They should not even been calling it the The Mentalist anymore, it is nothing like the show it once was.

    I predict the ratings will keep falling and it will be canceled by CBS

  • LolaGiggles

    If this is the case I’ll be slightly gutted because Partners is really growing on me. The pilot I’ll admit was awful I didn’t laugh once. The second episode was slightly funny. The third episode was hilarious and i know this show can grow. It has lots of potential and i really hope it gets more viewers in the coming weeks because this show could be a hit!

  • Honey Badger

    I agree with Ryne

    “Will someone at CBS please put Partners out of its misery. That show is so awful. Bring back Rules soon

  • Dennis

    bring CSI: Miami back!!!

  • AustinGriffith

    Hmmm H50 certain to be renewed already? Maybe a little too early?
    I like that Blue Bloods is certain to be renewed though.

  • Sid

    Please cancel Partners CBS!

  • kennya

    Partners first episode was bad. I didnt laugh at all… i havent watched the second episode until yesterday… it was hilarious. Sad its gonna be cancelled

  • Ben

    I like Hawaii Five-O and Blue Bloods. They are well made, well written, and well acted programs. A couple of first rate TV shows.

  • Pepper

    I think this is the year we say good bye to CSI: NY

  • One

    I’ll drink your koolaid for Five-0 Bill, but only because it has a syndication deal in place.

    Blue Bloods is right in that ambiguous grey zone between “likely” and “toss up” just because it doesn’t have such a deal yet, and we don’t know how much of a sucker punch CBS is willing take before retreating from the night. Although I would like to see the numbers Saturday night was putting up in its last year as a “3-hour original” night on the network. Anyone have/know where I can find those?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Hmmm H50 certain to be renewed already? Maybe a little too early?”

    Nope, in retrospect, as soon as it was syndicated it was certain to be renewed through at least four seasons. I waited too long!

    “I’ll drink your koolaid for Five-0 Bill, but only because it has a syndication deal in place.

    Blue Bloods is right in that ambiguous grey zone between “likely” and “toss up” just because it doesn’t have such a deal yet, and we don’t know how much of a sucker punch CBS is willing take before retreating from the night. “

    Oh, you’ll be drinking the kool aid on Blue Bloods eventually too. The syndication gods demand it!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I think this is the year we say good bye to CSI: NY”

    Would not surprise me, but may not be obvious even at the end of the season. A lot will depend on (1) Where Vegas settles (which we can see), and (2) what the economics of The Good Wife and The Mentalist are for CBS (which we cannot see).

  • Agnes

    What would happen if CBS fails to find a buyer for Good wife or Bluebloods? Does CBS still renew it and slash its asking price per episode? Or does it cancel it and still shop it around?

    Have there been any 4-season plus shows (on CBS or other networks) that never managed to get syndication deals?

  • THE OLD MAN

    Don’t have exact numbers, but Touched By An Angel was in the top 25 2000-01, then Sat went dark in 2003-04 season.

    Can’t disagree with anything stated in this post.

    Keep me quivering about TGW, Bill!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “What would happen if CBS fails to find a buyer for Good wife or Bluebloods? Does CBS still renew it and slash its asking price per episode? Or does it cancel it and still shop it around?”

    Unclear. My guess is that third season Blue Bloods is in a different situation than fourth season Good Wife. Blue Bloods without a fourth season has drastically diminished value, but my assumption is that Good Wife without a fifth season doesn’t suffer nearly the loss of value.

  • tv#1

    There is really no doubt that H50 and Blue Bloods will be renewed. They are both close enough to 88 episodes to be a sure thing. I don’t really know why some people are worried. And I say this not as a fan, which I am not, but just an observer of the TV industry.

  • Barry Traylor

    Although I enjoy Blue Bloods I find the required Sunday dinner scene at the end of each episode to be a bit tiring. I wish they would put that idea to rest.

  • Tommy

    With ‘Partners’ increasing in both quality and viewers this week I’m holding out that it might still have a chance. I didn’t care for the pilot but stuck around for Sophia Bush, but last nights episode was the best half hour on CBS last night.

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