CBS: 'Hawaii Five-0' & 'Blue Bloods' Are Certain To Be Renewed, The Syndication Gods Demand It!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) :oops: (canceled 10/10) 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.47
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
Partners :oops: 0.85
Vegas :| :| :| 0.85
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.86

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10/10 Update: Made In Jersey is the first canceled show of the season.
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Last season the Renew/Cancel Index adopted the rule of "If a show will be within one season of syndication at the end of this season, it will fall no further than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation". Now, at least for CBS (and perhaps other nets later), I'm taking it up a notch.

Since CBS is a well oiled syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty) that the syndication gods provide I am christening a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

On that basis, I have moved both Hawaii Five-0 (already sold to TNT) and Blue Bloods to "certain to be renewed". Cue both doubting and relieved commenters!

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey is the biggest CBS Fall premiere drama flop in quite some time (arguably, ever). It's certain to be canceled, the only question is when.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Don’t have exact numbers, but Touched By An Angel was in the top 25 2000-01, then Sat went dark in 2003-04 season.”

    TBAA ran 9 seasons and 212 episodes. I have no idea what its ratings were like, but its situation wasn’t comparable to either of the shows highlighted in this post. My guess is that it got too expensive (as shows do when they get older) for its ratings.

  • DenverDean

    CSI: NY actually is doing OK for that awful timeslot (CSIs should not be at 8/7!) Clearly, it has a following. CBS is being stubborn by not moving it back to 9/8 and in the process hurting BB. CBS also is wasting the Sunday demo it gains on the weeks it has NFL overrun. H50 should move to a different slot. I’ve been saying that for two years. Get it away from football.

  • Angie

    The mentalist is hanging on there no thanks to bloody nfl overuns and it will stay. It still is brilliant but i love csiny but it will go. Blue bloods is doing awful so can see it go too. I think they hung on long enough and TGW should go. Vegas and elementary have to see if falls further.

  • Petar Ivanov

    Partners is dead. Hurt so much 2BG. You will see it in final ratings tonight. And 2BG is smash hit.

  • Petar Ivanov

    Question – when CBS will cancel Partners and Made in jersey? What They Been Waiting For? They see that both shows are flops, right?

  • Agnes

    @Bill

    Thanks. I think a cancelled show with no syndication deal must surely be a hard sell with significant discounting, but I suppose any sale is better than none. I guess it comes down to how close CBS think they have a shot of selling it against diminishing profits on new episodes and the opportunity costs of not launching somthing new…So unless a CBS exec divulges such info, we’ll have to wait and see (and then still not have all the facts…)

  • Dan

    Blue Bloods has a better chance at syndication with a fourth season than Good Wife with a fifth. If CBS can’t find a home for Good Wife than its finished, with low numbers like last sundays. Blue Bloods is stable for Fridays so I couldnt see CBS cancelling it even after next season (They’d have to completely revamp Fridays and they probably don’t want to do that) Hawaii 5-0 has gone down but its still holds up against Castle and CBS has it already set for syndication so I can see 5-6 seasons. Also I doubt CBS wants to cut the reboot of an already successful franchise short. The Mentalist looks bubble only because Warner Brothers owns it so it could be on its way out, but if CBS cant find successful dramas than it will likely be renewed for a sixth season.

    Here’s what I think is in danger to be axed from most likely to least likely

    1) CSI NY – Its getting old and CSI Miami got the axe this season
    2) The Good Wife – No syndication deal, no point to purchase episodes
    3) The Mentalist – CBS doesn’t own it and its entered syndication already
    4) Vegas – Will get a full season but it coul;d turn out like Unforgettable (initially) and be cancelled or maybe renewed if it turns itself around
    5) Golden Boy – Is the NYC 22, CHAOS, Miami Medical, of this season. Unless this is a breakout hit, its likely DOA.

    I did not include Made in Jersey because I expect it to be cancelled after next weeks airing.

  • Petar Ivanov

    I think these 2 weeks show what CBS can do with PoI and benefit the most as network.

    PoI was only show that was UP from its premiere this season. That show how much PoI is affected from football and sports. Last week with boring and low rated football game(only 2.6) PoI gain may be between 0.3-0.5 and not only didn’t drop but was UP. My thesis from behining (months) – give PoI super bowl slot and after that move it in wednesday(no football, less popular sports) as lead in(survivor in sunday probably or after PoI) is winning and smart one. I think with all additional data CBS will do that. PoI im months without sport or less popular sport was 3+ in spring. Jan-Apr PoI average rating was 3.2!!! In fall and may(NFL draft and NBA playoffs and finals) down.

  • Tim

    Bill, isn’t a one hour drama with just 88 eps. a much tougher sell than a half hour comedy? The only drama repeats that I’m seeing are shows with many more seasons under their belt. Also, besides ION and MyNetworkTv, is there much of a demand for repeat dramas?

  • THE OLD MAN

    Bill

    TBAA was top ten from 1996-2000, #22 in 00-01, then not top 25 in its final season 02-03. I think there was a dispute w/ Della Reese for a hefty pay increase & her demands couldn’t be met.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, isn’t a one hour drama with just 88 eps. a much tougher sell than a half hour comedy?”

    That’s certainly the conventional wisdom, which seems logical to me, but that doesn’t seem to change how CBS behaves.

    “The only drama repeats that I’m seeing are shows with many more seasons under their belt. Also, besides ION and MyNetworkTv, is there much of a demand for repeat dramas?”

    Whether that’s true or not doesn’t really doesn’t seem to matter to how CBS behaves. They simply do not cancel shows they produce after their second season until they reach at least four seasons.

  • Melanie

    CBS and FOX are each hoping that the other blinks and cancells first. (Mob Doctor or Made in Jersey) I’m betting that CBS will hang in there longer.

  • riley

    I like both Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods too. But I also enjoying these two new shows: Vegas and Made in Jersey.
    I don’t know what it is about Made in Jersey. for some reason it just didn’t catch on. I’ve seen both episodes so far. and I kind of liked it.

  • tjw

    @Tim

    The only drama repeats that I’m seeing are shows with many more seasons under their belt. Also, besides ION and MyNetworkTv, is there much of a demand for repeat dramas?

    TNT loves drama repeats. Right now they’re showing Angel (5 seasons), Las Vegas (5 seasons), The Mentalist (in its 5th season), Castle (in its 5th seasons).

    USA had a deal with House in, I believe, is fourth season and currently airs NCIS:LA as well.

    And that’s not even considering local syndication.

  • Barbie

    I don’t think we’re saying goodbye to CSI:NY. Obviously, CBS liked it better than CSI:Miami. They kept it because it was lighter. There’s also the fact that it brings 8.something ratings for a Friday night, and average demo. It doesn’t get much higher than it gets. They only have two of the CSI franchise now. I’ll bet they’ll get it through at least season 10 to wrap it up with a pretty bow like Miami.

  • darius

    Bill, do you see nbc,cbs & abc giving up on the 10 pm time slot like fox in the near future?

  • Tyson

    According to Wikipedia, CBS ran the following Saturday schedule in 2003-04:

    8: 48 Hours Investigates (8.26 million viewers)/Star Search (7.62 million)
    9: Hack (8.31 million)
    10: The District (9.03 million)

    The current lineup of reruns and 48 Hours Mystery began in the 2004-05 season.

  • Fake Me Out

    @Bill Gorman “…drinking the kool aid on Blue Bloods eventually too. The syndication gods demand it!

    Just what is this kool-aid flavour? Strawberry Rerun? Banana Pineapple Syndication Punch? Deja Blueberry?

  • Bob

    @Barry,
    I hear you but since the scene basically is the same every week why not just shut off the tv (or watch something else) those last 5 minutes. The ONLY reason I like it is because it reminds Americans how things should be for families, but I can also see why it would be a “put off”. Again only 5 minutes every week.

  • Ricky

    Once again, let’s play…The Elimination Game:

    The rules (for those who need to know or maybe just forgot): Each show on the networks* (only the ones that have already series-premiered, or will be definitely returning later in the fall**) will be listed with 25 points each in the R/C Index threads.*** Give points to your favorite shows, take away from your un-favorites. Points will be given as follows: +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, and -3. (You must make each one or your vote is invalid.) When a show reaches 0 points, it is eliminated. If a show reaches 100 points, it will be “locked” and set aside in the Victor’s Village, until there is only one non-victor show left, and these will be reset to 10 points for the Winners’ Circle and final votes. Once you make a vote, wait at least 24 hours before making your next one.

    And, if cheating is detected(which is rare, but usually pretty obvious), the suspect “votes” will be disqualified and the totals reset to the most recent valid vote (even if the cheater(s) managed to eliminate a show.) No exceptions! Remember, this is just for fun, to show which shows are our favorites. Don’t ruin it!

    * Not the CW.
    ** So no Rules of Engagement. Sorry!
    *** When each new thread is posted, at least one full page of comments should be already posted before the game is continued.

    Ready? Let’s go:

    MADE IN JERSEY – 25
    CSI: NY – 25
    BLUE BLOODS – 25
    THE GOOD WIFE – 23 (-2)
    THE MENTALIST – 27 (+2)
    HAWAII FIVE-0 – 25
    PARTNERS – 25
    VEGAS – 25
    CSI – 25
    ELEMENTARY – 26 (+1)
    PERSON OF INTEREST – 25
    MIKE & MOLLY – 25
    CRIMINAL MINDS – 24 (-1)
    NCIS: LOS ANGELES – 25
    HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER – 22 (-3)
    TWO AND A HALF MEN – 25
    2 BROKE GIRLS – 25
    NCIS – 28 (+3)
    THE BIG BANG THEORY – 25

    From TBBT episode 6.02 “The Decoupling Fluctuation” –
    Sheldon: Wolowitz went to MIT. What’s your educational background?
    Stuart: I went to art school.
    Sheldon: Equally ridiculous. Let’s go.

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