CBS: 'Hawaii Five-0' & 'Blue Bloods' Are Certain To Be Renewed, The Syndication Gods Demand It!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) :oops: (canceled 10/10) 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.47
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
Partners :oops: 0.85
Vegas :| :| :| 0.85
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.86

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10/10 Update: Made In Jersey is the first canceled show of the season.
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Last season the Renew/Cancel Index adopted the rule of "If a show will be within one season of syndication at the end of this season, it will fall no further than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation". Now, at least for CBS (and perhaps other nets later), I'm taking it up a notch.

Since CBS is a well oiled syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty) that the syndication gods provide I am christening a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

On that basis, I have moved both Hawaii Five-0 (already sold to TNT) and Blue Bloods to "certain to be renewed". Cue both doubting and relieved commenters!

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey is the biggest CBS Fall premiere drama flop in quite some time (arguably, ever). It's certain to be canceled, the only question is when.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Bob

    @Darius,

    I don’t think they will in the foreable future getting rid of the 10 o’clock shows because the News folks were extremely pissed off with NBC when they put Leno on and he bombed and brought the news down too. I believe that NBC screwed up big time doing that and lost a lot of good quality shows because of it. They still have not recovered to this day. The Law and Order franchise was destroyed by that stupid move.

  • Fake Me Out

    @The Guys

    Pls give ‘The Elimination Game’ it’s own thread so it doesn’t clutter up the regular comments. I don’t know how many others are like me but once I see these posts I stop reading and move on.

    ymmv

    The Elimination Game Elimination Game

    Keep on Regular Threads -22
    Give Seperate Thread +28

  • Jeff

    Bob, what Darius was referring to was eliminating the 10PM primetime programming and going straight to local news at 10PM rather than at 11PM.

    Local affiliates seem to like it because they claim it is more profitable.

    That is what FOX & the CW do now.

  • Jeff

    Agreed on eliminating the Elimination Game. It makes regular threads unintelligible.

  • Randy

    @DenverDean

    CBS fixed the somewhat delay of programs this year on Sunday compared to how it was before. The weeks they are having a double header, the time for shows at night is 6:30 pm central, and when they don’t have a double header, they are starting it at the usual 6pm. This makes much more sense than what they have been doing. However, what this is really doing is that if you want to switch from abc to cbs on Sundays, a show on abc might be 8-9pm, but a show on cbs is going to be 8:30-9:30 pm, than you are stuck.

    I think that’s what killed CSI Miami. A show on Sunday for CBS has to be really, really, really good, and if it’s not than you just don’t bother with it anymore because of the times are terrible. It would still be better if they let football / or the other weeks to go to 7pm instead. Move 60 Minutes to a Saturday. The weeks their is no double header game for football, CBS should just fill it with another sport – bull riding / monster trucks / When is basketball playing? / bowling / etc. Now, they just have junk. Paid programming, and news.

  • Dan

    @Melanie – Idk, CBS is CBS and Made in Jersey’s .8 is probably the worst numbers for a fall drama ever, even for fridays. Ex List performed better and it was yanked after 4 eps.

    If CBS hasn’t pulled Made in Jersey now, they will after Friday’s episode, maybe they want to ax the show after 3 eps instead of 2, maybe they don’t want the distinction of having the first fall cancellation, which they havent had since 2006 when they pulled Smith from the schedule.

    CBS and FOX may be playing a cat and mouse game by not pulling their series and I think FOX might win because they have a return date set for Mob Doctor while MIJ will air for the next few fridays

  • Mel

    Partners is more than just bad. IT IS ANNOYING! Really awful. But it does give me a half hour break from TV so I can go do the dishes.

  • John

    I didn’t like Vegas the first time, when it was McCloud. The show supposedly takes place in 1960 – so how come there are so many cars from 1963? I even saw a ’64 Pontiac Bonneville.

  • Tom

    About time you upgrade from “toss up” to “virtual guarantee”.

    You basically need extreme outliers like “network is ending” or “continued dramatic declines, every after cheapening (Heroes)” to not get the syndication minimum filled.

  • Ryne

    @Mel

    I think even cleaning the toilets would be more beneficial than watching Partners!

  • Woody

    @Honey Badger What on Earth are you talking about? Last nights Mentalist was absolutely beautiful, almost all commentators seem to be agreed on that. And you’re putting last night/this seasons ratings drop down to the Red John stuff? Er, no, try Sunday night after TGW and Football running over. The Red John stuff has people split 50/50 (it almost always has done) but even those that don’t like it stick with the show for its procedural nature.

  • Dan

    For CBS, if their current new dramas donm’t click than shows like CSI NY and The Mentalist hav e a better chance of surviving. I still think CSI NY will be done in May no matter what but the rule still applies. If Elementary is the only show given a second season than The Mentalist will continue. CBS axes 2-3 veteran dramas a year even if they are still high rated (and on other networks theyd be renewed). May 2009 they axed 2 veterans (The Unit and Without a Trace), May 2010 they axed 3 veterans (Cold Case, Ghost Whisperer, and Numb3rs), May 2011 they cancelled 1 veteran (Medium), and May 2012 they cancelled 1 veteran (CSI Miami). In recent years while we expected CBS to cancel a lot of aging dramas they have only cancelled few because of creative scheduling but this year is they year I think they may cancel 2-3 veteran dramas.

    If they ax only one I’d say it would be CSI NY after looking at the fact that it was barely renewed the past 2 seasons but more episodes to add to the syndication package is never a bad thing so even I’m stumped. The Good Wife is also likely to be axed if CBS can’t get a syndication deal and The Mentalist is already in syndication and not owned by CBS.

  • Ultima

    @darius
    giving up on the 10 pm time slot like fox

    FOX never gave up on the 10pm hour. Except for Sundays early on (prior to expanding to seven days a week), FOX has never programmed the 10pm hour.

  • Brian

    Glad to see Blue Bloods and POI having their 5 smilies. Both The Mentalist and Vegas need to get those 5 smilies now. The Mentalist is still great and also Vegas is awesome as well.

  • Ultima

    @Jeff
    Agreed on eliminating the Elimination Game. It makes regular threads unintelligible.

    This.

    Please.

    We already have a game here – it’s called Fan Excuse Bingo and it’s awesome.

  • Ultima

    @Randy
    CBS fixed the somewhat delay of programs this year on Sunday compared to how it was before

    CBS didn’t change anything about their Sunday schedule compared to previous years (actually, as the doubleheader starts 10 minutes later, they have longer delays).

    There’s no difference between saying a show starts at 7:00p and having a 40 minute delay and saying a show starts at 7:30p and having a 10 minute delay (other than the admission that you’re going to have a 30+ minute delay).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Ricky, let’s keep “The Elimination Game” out of the Renew/Cancel Index post comments this season.

    Here is a post I created for you to lead “The Elimination Game” on an ongoing basis, feel free to put one comment per week in each Renew/Cancel thread directing people to this post in which to play.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/

  • Dan

    I remember a time around 2002-2009 where each season CBS had almost every drama highly rated and the ones that would go down even slightly, were axed (Smith, 3 lbs. come to mind) In those years Made in Jersey would have been pulled immediately. Now I see CBS still has highly rated series but not in as big of numbers and and it seems that they are more willing to keep shows (CSI NY, mentalist) that are under performing just to have shows on the schedule. I’m not saying CBS wont cancel a veteran drama series, I’m just saying that their bar is lower than recent years.

    Looks like we have a Rock, Paper, Scissor situation with CSI NY, Good Wife and Mentalist

  • tjw

    @Ultima,

    And it’s so frustrating because they don’t even try. Sunday’s game was over at 7:26 and they still didn’t get 60 minutes off until 7:32.

  • Jordan

    Hawaii Five 0 will be renewed, it is just certain not to stay Monday at 10, especially if Revolution is renewed.

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