CBS: 'Hawaii Five-0' & 'Blue Bloods' Are Certain To Be Renewed, The Syndication Gods Demand It!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) :oops: (canceled 10/10) 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.47
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
Partners :oops: 0.85
Vegas :| :| :| 0.85
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.86

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10/10 Update: Made In Jersey is the first canceled show of the season.
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Last season the Renew/Cancel Index adopted the rule of "If a show will be within one season of syndication at the end of this season, it will fall no further than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation". Now, at least for CBS (and perhaps other nets later), I'm taking it up a notch.

Since CBS is a well oiled syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty) that the syndication gods provide I am christening a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

On that basis, I have moved both Hawaii Five-0 (already sold to TNT) and Blue Bloods to "certain to be renewed". Cue both doubting and relieved commenters!

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey is the biggest CBS Fall premiere drama flop in quite some time (arguably, ever). It's certain to be canceled, the only question is when.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Hawaii Five 0 will be renewed, it is just certain not to stay Monday at 10, especially if Revolution is renewed.”

    It would not surprise me one bit if H50 moved to either the Sunday or Friday pre-syndication warehouse for low rated dramas next season.

  • Jared K

    Please CBS … kill Partners already. I can understand if you want to avoid the stigma of having the ‘first new show cancelled!’ by waiting until FOX pulls the Mob Doctor, but we all know that the show is a dud in every way possible. It can’t be saved.

    While I don’t buy the idea that has been floated by some on this site that The Mentalist already received a quiet pickup for a sixth season along with its fifth-season renewal, I do think that it will get a sixth season, even if that sixth season has to air on Friday (where CBS tested it briefly last year). In terms of ratings and syndication economics, it’s very similar to Castle (they’re even syndicated on the same network, TNT). Qualitatively, there’s no comparison – I love Castle and could give two shakes about the Mentalist – but I think both will survive.

    The Good Wife is not so lucky. Unless it finds a buyer soon, it’s either cancelled or destined for a 13 episode farewell season on Friday next year (a slightly more dignified death for the awards darling of broadcast TV).

    It will be very interesting to watch the trajectory that Vegas takes this season. On one hand, it seems like it has the potential to hold steady in its very weak 10 PM Tuesday slot, and it’s clearly a hit with CBS’s base of older viewers. On the other hand, with such big names and high production values, it can’t be a cheap show to produce. I think it will come down the wire.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “About time you upgrade from “toss up” to “virtual guarantee”.”

    Better late than never!

  • Sid

    What are the odds Five-0 is tested in the Tuesday 10/9c slot before the dreaded move to Sunday or Friday? Someone on a previous thread posted a few weeks ago that with the departure of 2.5 Men on Mondays and with how female friendly the current Monday comedy lineup is, Five-0 is a bit out of place.

    Plus NCIS:LA and Five-0 have crossed before so that pairing wouldn’t be bad right?

  • Ultima

    @tjw
    And it’s so frustrating because they don’t even try. Sunday’s game was over at 7:26 and they still didn’t get 60 minutes off until 7:32.

    That’s because they sell a fixed amount of ad space immediately after the game – no matter how long the game runs, they will always run those ads.

    Actually, the total amount of advertising time is fixed, regardless of the actual length of the game. You’ll notice that in games with an excessive amount of stoppages (high scoring, injuries, etc.) that most of the fourth quarter will be commercial free except for the two minute warning (and overtime is commercial free).

  • Cynthia

    Why is H5O certain to be renewed and Castle is between renewal and cancellation if Castle numbers are better?

  • Declan

    Wonder why Partners hasn’t been canned already? Just checked it’s ratings and it’s doing horrible. I’m sure they could use Rules as a replacemnt . Hell even Rob if that wasn’t cancelled already last year…..can’t remember if it was. Don’t evn know why CBS picked it up in the first place. Everyone and their grandmother knew it was dead before it even hit the water.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Why is H5O certain to be renewed and Castle is between renewal and cancellation if Castle numbers are better?”

    Other than what’s already written in the post above, comparing ratings *between* networks is irrelevant to those show’s futures. If you want to learn more click these words: cancellation bear.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Wonder why Partners hasn’t been canned already?”

    Either PR or scheduling concerns.

  • Cynthia

    @Bill thank you, now I understand

  • Declan

    @ Bill Gorman

    I don’t know if this is a stupid question but what’s PR?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I don’t know if this is a stupid question but what’s PR?”

    Public Relations, but I use it loosely as meaning “image”.

  • Declan

    @ Bill

    Oh ok thanks!!

  • Declan

    @ Bill

    And one more thing. Do you work for this site? I asked the other guy, Ultima I think, and he doesn’t work for this site apparently. But I see your posst here alot. Just wondering….

  • Ultima

    @Declan

    This site was created by and is run by Bill Gorman and Robert Seidman.

  • ivan

    I’m sorry for asking I’m nor american a read a lot the sybdication and i dont understand can somebody please explain to me what syndication means and why is important sorry

  • ivan

    I’m sorry for asking I’m not american a read a lot about the syndication and i dont understand can somebody please explain to me what syndication means and why is important sorry

  • Declan

    @ Ultima

    Woah! Didn’t know he was the creator of this site. Must be pretty cool. Does he get paid?

  • Petar Ivanov

    @Bill Gorman
    Either PR or scheduling concerns.

    Who cares for their image??? Help 2 BG is more important than stupid PR or whatever. Partners hurt 2BG enough.

  • Declan

    @ Petar Ivanov

    I don’t see how Partners hurt 2BG. The show usually gets around a 3.6-3.8. A .2 drop is nothing compared to how shows have been dropping recently. And considering it got a 3.4 from a 1.9 lead is very helpful. Plus at this day and age when network tv ratings are dropping every year, a 3.4 is amazing. But hey, I’m only 20 so what should I know? Don’t fret too much. 2BG will sail into a 3rd season. And if it doesn’t(which would be a real shocker) then the world has turned upside down.

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