CBS: 'Hawaii Five-0' & 'Blue Bloods' Are Certain To Be Renewed, The Syndication Gods Demand It!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) :oops: (canceled 10/10) 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.47
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
Partners :oops: 0.85
Vegas :| :| :| 0.85
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.86

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10/10 Update: Made In Jersey is the first canceled show of the season.
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Last season the Renew/Cancel Index adopted the rule of "If a show will be within one season of syndication at the end of this season, it will fall no further than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation". Now, at least for CBS (and perhaps other nets later), I'm taking it up a notch.

Since CBS is a well oiled syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty) that the syndication gods provide I am christening a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

On that basis, I have moved both Hawaii Five-0 (already sold to TNT) and Blue Bloods to "certain to be renewed". Cue both doubting and relieved commenters!

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey is the biggest CBS Fall premiere drama flop in quite some time (arguably, ever). It's certain to be canceled, the only question is when.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • cas127

    I wonder how lucrative syndi is for hour long shows, really.

    I suppose it very much matters on the show and the syndi deal.

    Long-running cable deal = mucho $. The cablers have all that subscription share money coming in.

    Low viewership weekend broadcast burnoff – eh, not so much. Otherwise why do you put it on late at night on Sat/Sun?

  • Dan

    @Bill – My theory for why Partners hasn’t been pulled.

    1) CBS hasn’t pulled a new Monday comedy in over 10 years, let alone their sole new fall monday comedy.
    2) They are unlikely to cancel 2 shows this fall because they haven’t cancelled 2 fall freshman shows (In the fall) since 2006 (Made in Jersey is the prime candidate to be cancelled)

    Even if they have Rules waiting in the wings I can see CBS letting Partners air out its episode order. Like last season’s A Gifted Man, They will make it seem like Partners is doing fine and air its order out than return Rules in January. I doubt CBS will order additional “Rules” episodes this season so their 13 episodes may air in January and then Friend Me might replace that. It may be good PR business not to pull Partners yet and just let it run its course. Sort of like what Fox may be doing with Mob Doctor.

  • Dan

    @Unintelligible- Most if not all shows that reach 88 episodes get syndication deals. Its rare that shows don’t but sometimes its hard to sell a show into syndication (The Good Wife) some get renewed for the bare minimum because of syndication (Til Death, Rules of Engagement) and some get additional seasons because of syndication (According to Jim, Scrubs). 8 Simple Rules was cancelled after its third year because ABC could not sell it into syndication. The companies that own shows make money by licensing episodes to be repeated on other networks.

  • tjw

    @Unintelligible,

    Syndication is a really complicated topic, so it’s not really your fault for not knowing. There are a number of different types of syndication, but the one we’re most often referring to is “stripped” syndication, where a network can take a show and air it daily in the time slot. This is done far more often with comedies than with dramas, though they do work as well. The reason it’s complicated is because the network doesn’t own the syndication rights, the production company does. So, ultimately, in the case of a low-rated show it’s often the production company who will make the decision of whether to discount the rate they charge the network enough to keep it on the air so they could, presumably, make that money back in syndication.

    For example, let’s say Warner Bros. thinks they can get $1.2 million per episode for their extra 13 episodes of Fringe. They can go to Fox and say “we’ll give you a $1 million discount for a fifth season of Fringe, since we think we’ll make an extra $2.6 million from those episodes in syndication.”

    Now, where CBS gets tricky is that they both produce and air most of their shows (Blue Bloods and Hawaii 5-0 in particluar) so they stand to make that money from syndication. Five-0, in fact, already has a syndication deal. They’ve had particular luck in recent years with selling shows into syndication while they are still airing.

    Ultimately, though, most shows don’t get syndicated until after they finish airing and the production companies are merely guessing as to whether a particular show will get syndicated. If it turns out they’re wrong, they’ll lose money. But, as Bill so often says, CBS is a well-oiled syndication machine, and nearly all of their reasonably long-lived shows end up in syndication somewhere.

  • Dan

    And as far as syndication goes, if a network owns the show that is airing it has a better chance of gaining more episodes with lower ratings (If the show already has 3 or more seasons) Which is why The Good Wife might have a better chance of surviving than Mentalist, because CBS owns Good Wife but does not own Mentalist which is owned by WB. That’s why CBS picked up Medium in 2009 and got 35 more episodes for syndication. Community and Parks and Rec were renewed for this season to get their syndication needs fulfilled Community will have 84 episodes, Parks will have 90. Parks is owned by NBC so its more likely to get more eps where NBC universal will make money, while Community is owned by Sony which they will have to make negotiations with NBC about licensing fees and such.

  • Court

    I hope csiny get to have one more season 10 love show any do so good. I also happy bluebloodls. Is back next year.

  • s0303

    i’m not convinced 2 1/2 men is coming back…i keep expecting them to announce the final season is this year…mostly due to how much it costs and it’s worn out…i know the ratings are still good, but not what they were, especially airing after tbbt…i think they might want to end it before it hits rock bottom…

  • Petar Ivanov

    Person of Interest on the cover of the new TV Guide Magazine!

    http://www.facebook.com/TVGuideMagazine

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Five-O and PoI are the only two of interest to me on CBS. I agree Five-O is likely to be syndicated – it’s pretty perfect for that.

  • Emily

    would you really give CSI “likely” its a very old show (although I suppose CBS is filled with very old shows) and getting only decent ratings, although they’d probably kill new york, before the orginal at this point, still I can imagine a ‘final season’ coming soon for it

  • RandomCommentor

    The Mentalist seems to be an enigma this year. .7 relative, but last year was .9 or above – sometimes even beating PoI. I don’t watch commercials so I wonder if CBS didn’t bother advertising the move to Sunday properly… though on second thought 10PM sunday tends to be a death slot in and of itself.

    According to periodicals from last year it will pulling ad rates around what NCIS was. Plus, it’s in heavy syndication on TNT. The show runners were planning for 6 seasons last season and then presumably ending it, though I guess that can be changed.

    Too many variables *head explodes*.

  • jamie.tessier@yahoo.ca

    Mentalist was planned for 7 season arc, its season 5 now.

  • C Whitty

    I like the Good Wife and enjoyed the first half of the first season but I missed a few episodes and couldnt get back into it, for me it is a show that doesnt suit syndication and is a tough sell, cant see a fifth season without a deal announced (I presume it doesnt have one?)

  • omar

    cbs made mistake when put the mentalist in sunday night the show was going great with person of intrest now show keep falling and will cancel bec. the writers has no more idea for the mentalis it’s keep repeating itself so they should make red john make misake or kill him or even show his face to make viwers come back espcial in mentalist time period in sunday there is agreat another shows like revenge 666 park once upon time >

  • jake

    CSI: NY will probably get the axe this year, CBS will give it an additional 2 episodes and end the show with 200 episodes, sad but think this will be true

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Dan, that’s a logical outcome for Partners, we’ll just have to wait and see.

  • alexjones

    won’t be much long before Elementary slips into the toss up range.

  • bluejays

    HFO might be renewed but with those numbers it will be shipped to Friday night to die a death after four seasons. Sad really for a show that for its first two seasons ruled the ten pm slot across all the nets.

    And it’s not alone. Vegas is doing badly, NCIS LA is already down to its spring levels by ep three, The Mentalist is doing horribly in that Sunday slot. CBS must be wondering what’s happened to their line up this year. HFO is the worst example though, it’s drop is pretty astounding.

    I blame Revolution and it bugs me that such a crappy, third rate ‘sci fi’ show has killed one of my faves. And I stuck with the whole season of Terra Nova so am fairly forgiving if it’s a genre show (loved Jericho, BSG etc etc) but Revolution is really bad and I can’t believe so many people are still watching it.

  • Riff Rafferty

    No, Cancel Bear! Not Janet Montgomery’s hotness! TAKE PARTNERS INSTEAD!

  • Mystery13

    I hope that CSI: NY will have 20 episodes and after that they’ll axe this show…Number of episodes of the CSI Family is so mindblowing and a lot of episodes is real sh*t…

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