CBS: 'Hawaii Five-0' & 'Blue Bloods' Are Certain To Be Renewed, The Syndication Gods Demand It!

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F) :oops: (canceled 10/10) 0.36
CSI:NY (F) :| :| :| 0.47
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.51
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.66
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.70
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
Partners :oops: 0.85
Vegas :| :| :| 0.85
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.94
Elementary :) :) :) :) 1.05
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
How I Met Your Mother :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Big Bang Theory already renewed 1.86

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10/10 Update: Made In Jersey is the first canceled show of the season.
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Last season the Renew/Cancel Index adopted the rule of "If a show will be within one season of syndication at the end of this season, it will fall no further than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation". Now, at least for CBS (and perhaps other nets later), I'm taking it up a notch.

Since CBS is a well oiled syndication machine, and has shown that it will sacrifice low current ratings for the  bounty (or even the potential bounty) that the syndication gods provide I am christening a new rule: If a CBS produced & aired scripted show reaches a third season it is certain to receive a fourth. That fourth season typically ensures at least the minimum number of episodes (~88) needed for stripped syndication.

On that basis, I have moved both Hawaii Five-0 (already sold to TNT) and Blue Bloods to "certain to be renewed". Cue both doubting and relieved commenters!

While the syndication gods demanded the current fourth season for ratings loser The Good Wife, they are not guaranteed to demand a fifth, so it will likely remain a "toss up" all season long.

Made In Jersey is the biggest CBS Fall premiere drama flop in quite some time (arguably, ever). It's certain to be canceled, the only question is when.

Since CBS typically cancels its lowest rated sitcom each season, rookie sitcom Partners doesn't have much of a life expectancy either, it's almost certain to be replaced, likely by Rules of Engagement, sooner rather than later.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Robert Ariadne

    The Mentalist has already been renewed for a sixth season.

  • Linda E.

    I’m a fan of HF-0 and I’m glad it will continue, but I want that to happen because it deserves to, so I’m hoping the other shows will fall. Regardless, CBS needs to clean house, hire a new stable of writers and start micro-managing HF-0, IMO. Even with that though, they’ll never please everyone. Also, not practical, and the network doesn’t care enough about the show to do that. It’s just another commodity.
    I’m hoping it will get moved next season, but not to one of the ‘graveyard’ nights. If CBS is planning for HF-0 to last the full seven seasons, a night other than Friday or Sunday would be good.
    We’ve yet to see the first Live+7 numbers for HF-0, so after the first few, we’ll get an idea of what the pattern might be. CBS seemed encouraged by them the first two seasons, whenever the SD demos were low.

  • Phillip

    ‘Partners’ is actually growing on me by each episode. This past Monday’s episode was HILARIOUS! Totally agree…it is gaining viewer’s week after week. So what if its looses a small percentage of its viewers. It for sure CAN gain popularity in the future. Pretty much, its holding a great amount of numbers. Comparing it to other “hits” such as ‘Ben and Kate’ and The Mindy Projject’ (both on Fox network) has about nearly below 4 million viewer’s when ‘Partners’ has about 5 to 6 million (average). Yet again, that’s another different network…but still. This show is perfect for the two hour comedy slot CBS Mondays.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    The Mentalist has already been renewed for a sixth season.

    Not according to any substantiated report or CBS. A recap of one of the actors/crew tweeting that it was renewed for a 6th season months ago could be true, but if so, CBS won’t confirm that’s the case.

  • Julie

    The fact that The Mentalist was originally planned to run for seven seasons has ruined the show, because Bruno Heller refuses to solve the Red John fiasco until the bitter end. At the same time, he refuses to flesh out the story in any real way but instead seems to “plan” the “arc” by using plot-generating software every now and then. So the basic theme of the show — Jane vs. RJ– is really extended, really superficial, and really nonsensical. It has killed the show. I hope it is canceled, Heller deserves it. Robin Tunney carries the show, Simon Baker has truly played out the smugly ” charming” routine. He should burn those suits he wears on the show– the character has literally worn the same outfit for five years, and it is way, way past annoying.

  • omar

    The Mentalist will renewed for last and final season

  • Joseph

    Now that Made in Jersey is out, it seems like Partners is next which is sad, i’m really enjoying the show! :(

  • Darcy

    All we can honestly hope for is final fifth season for TGW. I’ll be happy with that personally, and it’s ratings are acceptable for something nearing 100 episodes and an Emmy darling! We’ll see, but I can certainly hope.

  • psychic

    Dammit. CBS made a mistake with The Mentalist. A very big mistake.

  • halaci

    Syndication contracts are usually done with either finished shows or with shows where the necessary episode count is almost sure (ie they are in their third or fourth seasons). H50 has already got the contract in its junior year and now in its 3rd season it’s questionable.

    Just out of curiosity as I don’t know if it had ever happened: if there is an existing syndication contract but the show has been sinking like a rock in midway, around 50 episodes, what are the obligations of the producing company? If it is worth to produce 25-30 more episodes because of the future money, it’s clear business, but what if they count that today’s expenditures would come back only in a very long run? Note to all fans: I’m not about H50’s future, just about a technical situation.

  • Other Than That Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play?

    When Hawaii Five-O ends Daniel Dae Kim should end go on a fishing trip with Terry O’Quinn and wash up on the beat of the LOST Island to be greated by Hurley and Ben from LOST where Hurley says “Dudes, I thought you two were dead !”

  • AlexFan

    CBS seems happy with DVR views and #H50 always does great in those. Monday nights at 10:00 seems to be the toughest night of the week. halaci, I don’t know where you get your information H50 had the syndication contract in place during it’s freshman season. CBS is not stupid but they are stubborn and they took a chance on a reboot of an old cop show and they will not give up easily on the show. #H50 is ahead of it’s time with the character driven procedural and other shows are now following even NCIS is starting to give more back story on it’s characters. Shows like NCIS also were rocky early on but CBS stood fast and see what happened. Maybe new blood at the helm with fresh ideas like NCIS had may help. NCIS ousted the creator and executive producer when thing were shaky and they sky rocketed to success.

  • halaci

    AlexFan: sorry, wrong terminology by me, junior => freshman, the first year of the show.
    However as I have stressed, the thing I’m interested in is not the future of H50 (so don’t waste your time to convince me about how CBS will straight the things out), but the theoretical situation when a show doesn’t live long enough to produce the necessary episode counts to the syndication, despite it has alrady been sold.

  • omabin

    H50 really shoudl be moved to Tuesdays. It should have been already actually. The thing is that I don’t know which 10pm show does CBS has that would do better in the currently killing Monday 10pm slot. Vegas would flop even more massively, The Mentalist would pull what H50 is pulling, Blue Bloods belongs on Fridays. Elementary is just too young and its ratings are not that good either, it would not survive revolution and castle. As for CSI, i dont think the show will survive another weekday move. It will probably have a last season on friday at some point, but i dont see it on monday doing well. So they leave H50 suffering on Mondays because well, there is nothing else to put there that would do better. The only option is that they “de-promote” one of the 9pm shows from Tuesday-Thursday there. I think that if Criminal Minds trend continues that might very well be the case next year. Something like this:

    Monday
    HIMYM (Final Season)
    New Comedy
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    Criminal Minds

    Tuesday
    NCSI
    NCSI LA
    Hawaii Five-0

    Wednesday
    Survivor
    New Drama (this requirements a development season good enough to have a show suited for the 9m hour facing Modern Family… I am unsure about this)
    CSI

    Thursday
    The Big Bang Theory
    New Comedy
    Person of Interest
    New Drama

    Friday
    The Good Wife
    CSI NY (or Vegas, but can a show like this really end up on a Friday? I dont see it, but well)
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    Elementary
    The Mentalist

  • AlexFan

    Halaci, just talking about CBS, they will keep a show around even if ratings are low because of a syndication deal. They will also keep a show like The Good Wife around with low ratings because of their stubborn belief in the show. I am not trying to convince you of anything just stating my opinion. What shows have been sold into syndication that haven’t gone the distance? Most networks will move shows around to reach the number of episodes that are needed. CBS not only pays attention to live numbers but also live + 3 and Live + 7 DVR numbers. Blue Bloods has not as far as I know been sold into syndication (although I think it should) and it’s still going strong.

  • JJF

    I imagine H50 will be saved for one more year but I sense it’s gonna definitely be moved to a throwaway slot to live out it’s final season quietly.

  • halaci

    @AlexFan: I thought I was clear: I don’t care about CBS, H50, Good Wife, or any specific show and why they ARE KEPT. You are telling why the shows are kept, but I didn’t ask it, I know all those reasons. I have a theoretical question, what happens when a show has a syndication contract yet the producer doesn’t want to invest into it (or the channel doesn’t want to keep it on air).

  • Alan 59

    Sorry, Old Man, but CBS aired two dramas on Saturdays in the 2003-2004 TV season.

    “Hack” played at 9:00 EST, and ranged between 5.1/9 and 6.2/11 in the ratings. It was one of CBS’ lowest-rated programs that fall. It concluded its run on March 13, 2004 with a low 4.9/9, although “Star Search” bled into the hour and may have lowered the hourly average somewhat.

    “The District” continued its run at 10:00 EST. The season premiere was 7.5/14, but after that the range was 5.2/9 to 7.0/13, with most airings above a 6 rating.

    I know that this site is disdainful of overall ratings, but unless you can find someone with decade-old records of 18-49 numbers, who is not prohibited from sharing them, you’ll just have to make do with these.

  • AlexFan

    halaci: You aren’t understanding me, if the producer doesn’t want to invest in a show anymore the show just gets another producer and what is it with the channel that doesn’t want to keep it on air it’s not a channel deal it’s a network deal.

  • char

    Couldn’t be happier…I and my 6 grandchildren are big, no huge, fans of Hawaii Five 0. Yeah!!!!!

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