CW: 'Supernatural' & 'Hart Of Dixie' Are Doing Fine, So Far

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.93
Supernatural :) :) :) :) 1.07

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The Cancellation Bear makes renewal and cancellation predictions sooner than pretty much everyone else in the TV media, but even he has been surprised by the speed at which commenters have pounced on the ratings for the first two CW scripted shows this season and proclaimed them as doomed.

Hart  Of Dixie premiered with a rating down a tenth from its premiere last season (and a tenth above its Spring average), and Supernatural was even with its premiere rating last season. Predicting doom for those two shows based on those two results is the height of commenter craziness.

Those who'd claim "You do the same thing!" are blinded by crazy. I don't predict doom for shows premiering at or near their ratings from last season after only two episodes have aired on the entire network.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Fake Me Out

    RIP
    The CW
    2006-2015

  • poweranimals

    @tv#1 No way that’s gonna happen.

  • jon

    @tv1

    Never gonna Happen. Its already been noted that The Carrie Diaries will take over GGs spot, and why the hell would they move Beauty and the Beast to Mondays??? If anything itll most likely get cancelled by midseason ( I wanna pimpsp the CW exec who greenlighted this show). Itll most likely go like this:

    Monday:
    90210
    The Carrie Diaries

    Tuesday:
    Hart of Dixie
    Emily Owens MD…if this flops…itll still be on the schedule like Ringer was and be cancelled at the end of the season

    Wednesday:
    Arrow ( same as Emily Owens)
    Supernatural

    Thursday:
    TVD
    Cult

    Friday:
    Americans Next Top Model/ some reality show
    Nikita

  • CrystalBall

    Let’s hope the CW can successfully launch two new show this year.
    With GG ending, 90210 deciding to face the bear earlier, HoD alive after a near death experience and Nikita on life support, they have already reach their quota to cancel.

  • Erin

    @coolini
    Hrm, I wonder if it was a change in shooting stock. The visuals changed all around in season 6. It looks to me like there was a significant change in how they shoot the show all together.

  • Dan

    I think Supernatural has 2 more seasons left in it. If CW gave Smallville a final tenth season and One Tree Hill a final ninth than Supernatural is likely to get a final ninth or tenth season. While Gossip Girl ending this year I doubt CW will ax 90210 also. Normally Id say yes but I’m sure CW will give 90210 a final season in 2013-2014. Hart of Dixie is hard to predict but if it holds up and its stable, CW will keep it. They usually don’t cancel dramas after 2 full seasons. Nikita is safe because of syndication factors (If it got a third year it will get a fourth) Vampire Diaries is always safe and its 50/50 for America’s Next Top Model but its cheap and always a nice schedule filler.

  • SPM

    I bet you Flop of Dixie gets a 0.6 or even 0.5 tonight.

  • Brian

    SPN is going to have 10 seasons like Smallville :) I can’t wait for Arrow, and HoD is doing excellent as well :)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Does anyone know when the Cw will stop feuding with that one station so more tvs can broadcast it on channels. I miss my cw!”

    Are you a Cablevision customer?

    If not, why would you care?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Folks, let’s keep “The Elimination Game” out of the Renew/Cancel Index post comments this season.

    Here is a post I created for you to lead “The Elimination Game” on an ongoing basis, feel free to put one comment per week in each Renew/Cancel thread directing people to this post in which to play.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/

  • Jason50

    Some predictions for this year:

    Emily Owens MD- I think at best case it will get similar numbers as HOD, worst case the HOD crowd doesn’t like it. I don’t see too many people tuning in to CW to specifically watch this show.Demo;0.5-0.7 season average

    Arrow- This would have to be the top show that CW wants to promote. I would say 1.0-1.2 for the premire. After that it’s anybody’s guess where it will stabilize. I thought the pilot was maybe on par or a little less enjoyable than Revolution. What was a turn off for me was that it felt like a knock off of Batman Begins as far as similarities with the story and characters. I do think this show has potential especially with rumors of appearances from some of my favorite DC characters Dead Shot, Deathstroke, and the Huntress. The pilot did have some good action and parkour which I’m always a sucker for.

    Beauty and the Beast- I’m not a fan of The Secret Circle, I thought it had it’s moments and was ok. It could’ve gotten renewed. I don’t think B&B is a step up from that show. I think CW wanted change and the initial ratings boost that comes with new shows. My prediction is that B&B will start at 1.0 and slide to 0.5 probably sooner than TSC. The pilot wasn’t horrible, it just was not good. I’m trying to think of some positives of the pilot, Kristen Kreuk is still hot and it had some action. Can’t think of much else besides that. There’s eye candy for the ladies because the beast is not always in monster mode. He goes from baby Hulk when angry to one of the Backstreet Boys yet he still has to hide when he’s a pretty boy(???)

    Cult- Speaking of horrible pilots. Since Cult is a mid season show I really hope CW goes back to the drawing board and remakes this pilot. Seriously, we’re at Comicon watching mostly mediocre pilots and the one show that stuck out and left an impression was The Following. The last pilot was Cult and it seemed similar to the Following but by the end of it we were like WTF was that crap. I don’t know if I was spoiled by the Following earlier or that the makers of Cult had just a difficult time making a show within another show. I know thats twice the writing, but to me that premiss ruined not only the show within the show but also the show itself. Maybe this project is too ambitious. I think there is some interest for this show so I’ll say 0.8 for the premire and a 0.4 after it’s half season of episodes.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Pepper
    Would you be one of those who predicted Supernatural wouldn’t make it past five seasons? How about we see how this season goes before we try giving the show an end date?

    @tv#1
    Nikita off Fridays? When the season premiere hasn’t even aired yet? I’d like some of that crack you’re smoking.

  • Honey Badger

    CW better keep that Cancellation Bear away from Hart Of Dixie – the best show on television.

    Why hasn’t the Cancellation Bear devoured Up All Night and Animal Practice on NBC and Partners on CBS yet ? What is the Cancellation Bear waiting for?

    And if the Cancellation Bear just hangs around NBC there will be plenty to fill its Appetite for years, so the bear should stay away from Hart Of Dixie for the next 5 years

  • buddhaboi

    supernatural is still the best show on television.’nuff said.

  • Alan

    Poor 90210. I think this will be the last season for them too.

  • tv#1

    @ poweranimals
    jon
    thesnowleopard

    My schedule is just a guess. Who knows what will happen. However, I don’t see how they can leave 90210 on Mondays all season long after it bombed in its season premiere. Furthermore, I don’t know why or how they could try to launch a new series behind that poorly preforming series. It would make more sense to premiere The Carrie Diaries following HOD on Tuesdays as it would be a stronger lead in, and give it a better chance to succeed.

    Moving Nikita to Mondays could make sense. When it premieres next week I bet it will rate higher than 90210 and that will be on a Friday. So it would probably rate even better on a Monday. Finally, Cult’s best shot at succeeding will be on Thursdays following TVD, so B&TB will need a new time-slot. Why not Mondays? It couldn’t preform any worse than 90210 or GG.

  • luisl

    Supernatural should go for eleven season so they break Smallville’s record.

  • cas127

    Bill,

    It would be great if the site actually posted the 18-49 average rating for each network (representing the “1” used in the renew/cancel index).

    I know it isn’t terribly relevant for renewal purposes, but it is a crucial data point for comparing *across* networks and for network revenue calculation purposes.

    It shouldn’t require any additional work – you already have to calculate it for the renewal/cancellation index.

    Just reveal what actual 18-49 average rating the “1” represents each week.

  • Adrian

    GG and 90210 at 0.4 already. Yikes! This makes me wonder if the CW itself will be renewed ha.

    Hopefully HOD doesn’t fall too much tonight.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    The CW, despite its pathetic showing as a network, seems to have most of the genre shows I watch these days: Nikita, Supernatural, Vampire Diaries, and likely Arrow.

    I expect Nikita to continue to do .4-.5 this season, like last season. It’s the best action show on TV right now (with the possible exception of Strike Back) but it’s just not being watched by many people.

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