CW: 'Supernatural' & 'Hart Of Dixie' Are Doing Fine, So Far

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hart Of Dixie :) :) :) :) 0.93
Supernatural :) :) :) :) 1.07

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The Cancellation Bear makes renewal and cancellation predictions sooner than pretty much everyone else in the TV media, but even he has been surprised by the speed at which commenters have pounced on the ratings for the first two CW scripted shows this season and proclaimed them as doomed.

Hart  Of Dixie premiered with a rating down a tenth from its premiere last season (and a tenth above its Spring average), and Supernatural was even with its premiere rating last season. Predicting doom for those two shows based on those two results is the height of commenter craziness.

Those who'd claim "You do the same thing!" are blinded by crazy. I don't predict doom for shows premiering at or near their ratings from last season after only two episodes have aired on the entire network.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Gleebo

    As long as it remains as one of the top 3 shows on the CW in ratings Supernatural will stay on as long as the actors continue to negotiate their contracts to do it.

    The way it has been going saying the show will go 10 seasons doesnt seem like much of a stretch. With 22 episodes in season 8,9, and 10 it would put them at 215 episodes, which would be 3 short of the longest running sci fi series(consecutive) at 218. If they would add an episode to each season like they did for season 7 and had 23 episodes it would tie them with Smallville. It could have been much closer if not for the writers strike a few years ago. In that season Supernatural only aired 16 episodes and Smallville ended up with 20.

    Of course a lot can go wrong between now and 10 seasons. The CW could fold. The actors and producers could want to end it. I dont really see either happening since there are only two main characters to pay and there is new blood in the producer seat starting this season.

    Also if Arrow and Beauty and the Beast become bigger ratings draws(I could easily see Arrow doing this) then the show could slip down in the ratings game for the CW behind them and Vampire Diaries.

    Supernatural has established itself as a solid if not spectacular performer by CW standards even when moved around to every night but Mondays in its 8 season run.

  • luisl

    @Gleebo

    Season 8 has 23 episodes as season 7 had.

  • thesnowleopard

    @tv#1
    It doesn’t make any sense, whatsoever. Nikita was moved to Fridays for good reason and it will stay there until it ends for equally good reason. As Grimm (which does a lot better on Fridays than Nikita) demonstrated, just because Fridays have lower expectations, doesn’t mean moving a show that’s successful off Fridays will automatically give it higher numbers. Yes, it helped SPN, but SPN is the *exception* (helped considerably, I’ll bet, by those successful TNT reruns), not the rule.

    SPN greatly and consistently outperformed Nikita (and, for that matter, the way ANTM does now), which was so unusual that it ended up second-rated on the network by the end of the season. *That’s* why it got moved off Fridays. No way will the network do the same for Nikita unless it does considerably better than 90210 and Gossip Girl on Mondays, not just about the same (what it was doing last season). Why move one ailing show to replace another when most shows lose audience when they move? Just put a new or decently performing show there, instead.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Gleebo
    If the new shows do beat up the older standbys, I expect TVD will suffer more than SPN. TVD has had much larger drops season-to- season than SPN and has a huge cast compared to SPN. Long-term, it’s more fragile and it won’t benefit from any new-show lead-ins, being an 8pm show. I can see it making up to six seasons but no more, for much the same reasons Eureka was canceled.

    I also think it will take at least three seasons for the CW to replace all its older deadwood. We don’t know how these new shows will do. Sure, Arrow has great buzz, but Beauty and the Beast sounds like this year’s TSC and the new doc show could end up being either a Hart of Dixie or a Hellcats. Cult is only a half-season and may work best at that level, even if it does do well. And so on.

    Now don’t get me wrong. I have nothing against the new shows. I even intend to check some of them out. But facts is facts. Historical trends indicate that some, even most, of these shows won’t get more than one season.

  • SPM

    Is a 0.4 really doing fine? LOL

    bye bye Flop of Dixie!

  • johncarter

    Bear is getting hungry

  • omidus

    Arrow actually surprised me with its slow to start story and then sped up by it’s compelling action sequence that reminds me of Bourne’s identity fast pace and brutal.

    I hope show the does well, love to see more of Kate Cassidy!

  • Robert

    Omidus the way you describe Arrow you should think you gave a description to Nikita. I definitely think Nikita is a show for you. Nikita look like a blockbuster movie from the theaters

  • Lucy

    Hopefully Arrow is a success for CW, otherwise it will probaly be done by 2015, Vampire diaries would be aged by then, all old WB shows will be long-gone with supernatural ended by then.

  • Bern

    The only CW shows that I care is TVD, Nikita, and Arrow. Cult looks like it’s going to be a good show.

  • luisl

    I think Vampire Diaries will finish in its sixth season because of the actors. They would want to move.

  • AO’s Sock Puppet Account

    #SPMfail

  • Jason50

    Now I must really watch Arrow. Just saw a picture of the greatest DC comics character ever created….DEATHSTROKE! I must go now and wipe a tear from my eye.

  • tami newman

    Something that The Bear needs to remember about the decrease in amount of viewers for the CW is decreased because the viewers that have Cablevision are unable to view the shows. This needs to be taken into account. The numbers will go up if Cablevision starts airing the CW shows again.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Something that The Bear needs to remember about the decrease in amount of viewers for the CW is decreased because the viewers that have Cablevision are unable to view the shows. This needs to be taken into account. The numbers will go up if Cablevision starts airing the CW shows again.”

    (1) Since all CW shows suffer the same penalty, it is irrelevant to the prognosis of each individual show since they’re based on relative ratings between CW shows.

    (2) Since the Cablevision subscribers are only 3% of US TV households, that penalty isn’t really that much of a factor in the ratings on an absolute basis.

  • fearless

    The only show I will be rooting for The Cw are Arrow, HoD, and Emily Owens… They ruined 90210 in the 4th season so no wonder its stinking…

  • June

    Hart’s overall ratings was just above a million viewers, how can it be just fine. If next week is lower or about the same, this show will not survive with those numbers.

  • Red Jane

    I admit I have been a fan of Hart of Dixie even when it was pretty terrible but this season it has improved – less cartoonish and funnier so ratings are likely to be stable and hopefully we’ll get a 3rd season esp. if none of the new shows (apart from the awesome Arrow which targets a pretty different demographic anyway) do particularly well…

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