FOX: Don't Confuse 'The Mindy Project' & 'Ben And Kate' Full Season Orders With Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) final season 0.46
The Mob Doctor :oops: 0.55
Raising Hope :) :) :) :) 0.74
Ben And Kate :| :| :| 0.80
The Mindy Project :) :) :) :) 0.93
The Cleveland Show :) :) :) :) 0.96
Bones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.97
Bob's Burgers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
American Dad already renewed 1.11
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
Family Guy already renewed 1.46
The Simpsons already renewed 1.50

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Yesterday's news that The Mindy Project and Ben And Kate both received full season orders doesn't change the Cancellation Bear's opinions of them, either or both could still be canceled at the end of the season (although at this point The Mindy Project doesn't seem to be in danger).

The observant will note that Raising Hope is predicted as "likely renewed" even with its somewhat weak premiere ratings. While the syndication gods ruling Fox aren't quite as predictable as those ruling CBS, it will take a ratings cataclysm for the show not to return for a fourth season. It would've gone in the headline this week if not for the news above. Look for it next week.

Fox's The Mob Doctor is still certain to be canceled no matter how many new actors they sign up for episodes that may never air. I'm guessing that last night's episode is the final one we will see in its original timeslot.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • iggy

    When was the last time FOX gave a freshmen comedy a full season and didn’t end up renewing it?

  • senor chang

    YES, Ben and Kate! Yeah, it probably wont make it out of this season…but come on, let me enjoy my full season in peace. :P

    Animation block still going strong.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “When was the last time FOX gave a freshmen comedy a full season and didn’t end up renewing it?”

    Among live action comedies, I don’t think there have been any since we started the site (Fall 2007), but I don’t think that’s a relevant metric.

    In recent years, Fox has been in a “building up a 2 hour comedy block on Tuesday” path. If you assume as I do that they will keep New Girl and Raising Hope for next season, then any *new* comedy they want to pilot has to replace one of the others on the schedule now (i.e. Mindy, B&K).

    That tells me that the lower rated of those two is almost certainly gone, and potentially even the higher rated of the two, depending on where it settles.

  • Robert Taylor

    Yes, how DARE a show like “The Mob Doctor” keep, you know, PRODUCING episodes!? It should just stop right now, since it’s going to be cancelled anyway. Everyone on the set should just stop working.

  • kill00

    Didnt know that both Family Guy and American Dad are already renewd good news hope that Raising Hope and Bones gets renewd too everything else exept New Girl and maybe Glee is now crap on Fox. I miss shows like House and Prison Break

  • tv#1

    Let the Schedules begin!

    Fox’s Mid-season schedule…

    Mon:
    Bones
    The Following

    Tues:
    American Idol

    Wed:
    American Idol Results
    The Goodwin Games

    Thurs:
    Glee
    New Girl
    The Mindy Project

    Fri:
    Touch
    Raising Hope
    Ben and Kate

    Sun:
    The Cleveland Show
    The Simpsons
    Bob’s Burgers
    Family Guy
    American Dad

  • THE OLD MAN

    No longer a rookie, would never confuse “full season” w/ “renewal,” not that I ever have but as of this point, Mindy seems safer than Ben & Kate.

  • Wowza

    Expect some shockers from FOX come midseason. Seriously.

    Schedule will be different….

  • Wowza

    Also, if FOX is building ups tuesday block, and willing to this dispute what come from higher rated shows, sitcoms must seriously be profitable. Good sitcoms I mean…. Like all 4 they have on right now.

  • Wowza

    Bones is certain to be renewed. For a final season. On Fridays. Called it. Done.

  • Common Anomaly

    @iggy

    “When was the last time FOX gave a freshmen comedy a full season and didn’t end up renewing it?”

    Back to You was given a full season order on October 24, 2007 for an additional 11 episodes for a total of 24 episodes. Only 14 episodes aired. 3 episodes were unaired.

    Undeclared was given a full season order on October 22, 2001 for an additional 9 episodes for a total of 22 episodes. Only 17 episodes aired. 1 episode did not air.

  • Dan

    I expected Ben & Kate and Mindy to get full seasons no matter what. The reason is because FOX won’t give up on their two hour comedy block. My guess is that Ben & Kate will eventually be replaced by The Goodwin Games in the spring. By May Mindy will probably be renewed over B&K.

    Raising Hope is in NO danger. FOX owns it, and a full 22 episode fourth season will make it to syndication (88 episodes exactly)/

    The Mob Doctor will probably be cancelled today, Id be surprised if FOX still has it scheduled for November 5, but I wouldn’t be shocked. If I were them I’d premiere Touch in that slot and air it out until The Following premieres.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Expect some shockers from FOX come midseason. Seriously.

    Schedule will be different….”

    Nah, unlikely anything will “shock” people who’ve been paying attention.

    I pretty much agree with Dan’s assessment (posted just above) of the likely outcomes.

  • Mark

    Mindy has kind of grown on me. But voice is like 2 cats having sex. Is there any word when COPS will be back??

  • Jon23812

    Tv#1, Bob’s Burgers only has 13 episodes, so it will either not, or only be shown very early mid-season, American Dad will probably take it’s timeslot, and The Cleveland Show will go to American Dad’s old timeslot.

    Also, Fox usually show their reality shows on Wednesdays and Thursdays.

  • Ricky

    Once again, let’s play…The Elimination Game:

    The rules (for those who need to know or maybe just forgot): Each show on the networks* (only the ones that have already series-premiered, or will be definitely returning later in the fall**) will be listed with 25 points each in the R/C Index threads.*** Give points to your favorite shows, take away from your un-favorites. Points will be given as follows: +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, and -3. (You must make each one or your vote is invalid.) When a show reaches 0 points, it is eliminated. If a show reaches 100 points, it will be “locked” and set aside in the Victor’s Village, until there is only one non-victor show left, and these will be reset to 10 points for the Winners’ Circle and final votes. Once you make a vote, wait at least 24 hours before making your next one.

    And, if cheating is detected (which is rare, but usually pretty obvious), the suspect “votes” will be disqualified and the totals reset to the most recent valid vote (even if the cheater(s) managed to eliminate a show.) No exceptions! Remember, this is just for fun, to show which shows are our favorites. Don’t ruin it!

    * Not the CW.
    ** Means Touch will not be entered.
    *** When each new thread is posted, at least one full page of comments should be already posted before the game is continued. Since this is the start of the game, I will make an exception here, but unless this week’s slow comment rate on the Fox thread becomes a continuing trend, I will wait until the first page is full before continuing onto the next thread.

    Ready? Let’s go:

    FRINGE – 28 (+3)
    THE MOB DOCTOR – 25
    RAISING HOPE – 27 (+2)
    BEN AND KATE – 25
    THE MINDY PROJECT – 24 (-1)
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 25
    BONES – 26 (+1)
    BOB’S BURGERS – 25
    AMERICAN DAD – 25
    GLEE – 22 (-3)
    NEW GIRL – 23 (-2)
    FAMILY GUY – 25
    THE SIMPSONS – 25

    From Fringe 5.02 “In Absentia” -
    Etta: He’s not worth a single tear. Loyalists sell out their own like rats. I know you just woke up, but look around you, Mom. This is what the Observers brought. This is war, and we’re losing.

  • Dan

    @Iggy and Common Anomaly – Quintuplets got a full season 2004-2005 and was axed after 1 season and 22 episodes.

    FOX only cancels midseason comedies or doesn’t give fall comedies full seasons but its very rare that 2 fall comedies get full seasons, but with FOX trying to build a block I’m not surprised. The last time FOX launched 2 new fall comedies (Raising Hope and Running Wilde) only Hope was renewed for a full season while Wilde was pulled and in 2006 when FOX had Til Death and Happy Hour, Til Death was renewed and Happy Hour was pulled. I don;t expect both new freshman shows to get second seasons but its more likely that Mindy gets renewed over B&K. I wouldnt be shocked if both were cancelled but i’d be surprised.

  • Jon

    The Mindy project is garbage. Who’s still watching it?

  • Joe

    Why do so many still think FOX is going to put comedies back with Glee on Thursdays? It’s pretty clear they REALLY want a comedy block.

  • Sarah

    I really hope Bones does not get moved again midseason (unless it’s to 9 or back to Thursday).

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