FOX: Don't Confuse 'The Mindy Project' & 'Ben And Kate' Full Season Orders With Renewal

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 9th, 2012

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from September 17-October 7, 2012):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Fringe (F) final season 0.46
The Mob Doctor :oops: 0.55
Raising Hope :) :) :) :) 0.74
Ben And Kate :| :| :| 0.80
The Mindy Project :) :) :) :) 0.93
The Cleveland Show :) :) :) :) 0.96
Bones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.97
Bob's Burgers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
American Dad already renewed 1.11
Glee :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.22
Family Guy already renewed 1.46
The Simpsons already renewed 1.50

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Yesterday's news that The Mindy Project and Ben And Kate both received full season orders doesn't change the Cancellation Bear's opinions of them, either or both could still be canceled at the end of the season (although at this point The Mindy Project doesn't seem to be in danger).

The observant will note that Raising Hope is predicted as "likely renewed" even with its somewhat weak premiere ratings. While the syndication gods ruling Fox aren't quite as predictable as those ruling CBS, it will take a ratings cataclysm for the show not to return for a fourth season. It would've gone in the headline this week if not for the news above. Look for it next week.

Fox's The Mob Doctor is still certain to be canceled no matter how many new actors they sign up for episodes that may never air. I'm guessing that last night's episode is the final one we will see in its original timeslot.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • madbengalsfan85

    FRINGE – 29 (+1)
    THE MOB DOCTOR – 22 (-3)
    RAISING HOPE – 27
    BEN AND KATE – 25
    THE MINDY PROJECT – 24
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 25
    BONES – 29 (+3)
    BOB’S BURGERS – 25
    AMERICAN DAD – 25
    GLEE – 20 (-2)
    NEW GIRL – 24 (+1)
    FAMILY GUY – 26 (+1)
    THE SIMPSONS – 25

  • Ricky

    @madbengalsfan85: Sorry, but you gave +1 to two shows and no -1. Unless you wish to fix your mistake, votes will now reset to the previous totals below:

    FRINGE – 28
    THE MOB DOCTOR – 25
    RAISING HOPE – 27
    BEN AND KATE – 25
    THE MINDY PROJECT – 24
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 25
    BONES – 26
    BOB’S BURGERS – 25
    AMERICAN DAD – 25
    GLEE – 22
    NEW GIRL – 23
    FAMILY GUY – 25
    THE SIMPSONS – 25

  • madbengalsfan85

    Oops…this should fix it

    FRINGE – 28
    THE MOB DOCTOR – 22 (-3)
    RAISING HOPE – 27
    BEN AND KATE – 25
    THE MINDY PROJECT – 24
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 27 (+2)
    BONES – 29 (+3)
    BOB’S BURGERS – 25
    AMERICAN DAD – 25
    GLEE – 20 (-2)
    NEW GIRL – 22 (-1)
    FAMILY GUY – 26 (+1)
    THE SIMPSONS – 25

    From Bones 8×04 “The Tiger in the Tale”
    Booth: You know what, Bones? I wouldn’t vote for you. But I would definitely encourage other people to vote for you.

    Brennan: That’s irrational!

    Booth: Yeah, well so is politics. And love.

  • Dan

    @Sarah – Bones won’t be moved. If anything it will stay put in its slot and then in January be followed by The Following. Since FOX isn’t cancelling The Mob Doctor today and it probably will return November 5 (Unless a quick cancellation happens) If Mob Doctor returns than its likely to air out its order and then be replaced by The Following. I guess Touch isn’t returning post Bones like I had hoped and instead will air January 2013, where I have no idea. A theory is that Touch will air following Bones and The Following will premiere after Idol while Glee goes on hiatus likely until March. When Glee returns The Following may move to 9pm after Bones and Touch will either move to fridays or be finished airing. All in all, FOX is a mess this season. Keeping The Mob Doctor doesnt help and if they had moved Touch to Mondays following Bones that could help the shows future and it could still get a full season.

  • Common Anomaly

    @Bill Gorman

    “I pretty much agree with Tom’s assessment (posted just above) of the likely outcomes.”

    Don’t confuse Tom with Dan. Who is Tom?

  • Nick

    Ah, The Elimination Game.

    FRINGE – 29 (+1)
    THE MOB DOCTOR – 22
    RAISING HOPE – 29 (+2)
    BEN AND KATE – 28 (+3)
    THE MINDY PROJECT – 24
    THE CLEVELAND SHOW – 27
    BONES – 29
    BOB’S BURGERS – 25
    AMERICAN DAD – 23 (-2)
    GLEE – 20
    NEW GIRL – 21 (-1)
    FAMILY GUY – 23 (-3)
    THE SIMPSONS – 25

    “Right. Cuz after six hours, that’s when they’re really dead.” – Peter, Fringe episode 1.02, “Pilot, part 2″

  • Dan

    @Common Anomlay – Thats how I would work out the Fox schedule but what they actually do and when they announce it will be very very interesting to me.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Don’t confuse Tom with Dan. Who is Tom?”

    Whoops! fixed.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Folks, let’s keep “The Elimination Game” out of the Renew/Cancel Index post comments this season.

    Here is a post I created for you to lead “The Elimination Game” on an ongoing basis, feel free to put one comment per week in each Renew/Cancel thread directing people to this post in which to play.

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/10/09/play-the-elimination-game/152342/

  • Jared K

    Before this season started, I had wondered if Bones might find itself in danger later in the year under the “we’re the Number 1 network in Adults 18-49, and this show is getting older and more expensive” provision, a la House. Given the situation FOX finds itself in now with falling ratings across the board, that idea looks pretty darn foolish. At this point, any scripted drama that can hold a decent audience week-in and week-out is a bright glowing win for FOX. They’re probably going to want to get two more seasons at least.

    FOX’s hard-won two-hour comedy block is too important for them to surrender, so Ben and Kate and Mindy getting full season orders comes as no surprise. Ben and Kate in particular has an uphill battle, because FOX is going to want to premiere at least one new comedy next year, but it’s a decent little show, so good on them for getting a win.

    I don’t think we’ll get an official cancellation announcement for The Mob Doctor this week. At this point, I think that FOX will just let it go off the air during October for baseball, come back in November with specials or Bones repeats and hope that people won’t notice. They will, of course. It’s what we do :)

  • Ultima

    @Jared K
    I had wondered if Bones might find itself in danger later in the year under the “we’re the Number 1 network in Adults 18-49, and this show is getting older and more expensive” provision, a la House.

    Bones has the huge advantage of being produced by FOX.

    Ben and Kate in particular has an uphill battle, because FOX is going to want to premiere at least one new comedy next year

    I wouldn’t be shocked to see Raising Hope find its way to the Sunday 7pm timeslot.

  • Dan

    @Jared K – Bones isn’t in any danger. There are some factors working in its favor. FOX owns Bones, while NBC universal owns House. Both of Bones leads still want to continue for Season 9 while Hugh Laurie wanted to end House. Another thing going for Bones, even though it is 8 years old, FOX has no other dramas. Glee will likely end after Season 5 (how long can they keep that series running), Fringe is done after this season, Touch probably won;t last long, The Mob Doctor should be gone any day now. FOX has nothing else, and even if The Following is a hit, axing Bones means that FOX is just X Factor, Gordon Ramsay and Animated shows. Next season they may need to schedule 2 dramas on the fall. Because FOX doesn’t air 10pm since 2007 they have scheduled only 1 drama each fall. Some have done well (Fringe, Glee) others not so well (K-Ville, Lone Star, Terra Nova).

  • Dan

    @Ultima – Nahh I don’t see a Til Death style burn off for Raising Hope. If it gets cancelled it will probably do so on the regular schedule. RH had the advantage of staying on the schedule and airing all of its episodes for its particular season (and it probably will this year) Til Death did not and episodes were preempted so much that its fourth season had 37 episodes. With New Girl Fox was able to build a new Tuesday block, it just takes time and I believe that this block will continue into next season. If anything for Fall 2013 I expect Raising Hope, Mindy Project, and New Girl along with a new comedy. But I don’t see Raising Hope being singled out and burned off.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    With New Girl Fox was able to build a new Tuesday block, it just takes time and I believe that this block will continue into next season.

    I agree with that part, but if Raising Hope is FOX’s lowest rated sitcom, it’s hard to justify keeping it on Tuesdays.

  • Dan

    @Ultima – That’s true but it has to lead off the night. And if they move it than what will air in that slot? A new show would do worse leading off the night and its against The Voice, NCIS and Dancing – a lot of competition. 3 new shows would make Fox Tuesday be like NBC Thursday (ratings wise) and they cant move it to Sundays because FOX has full a full animated schedule.

  • Dan

    And I guess since The Mob Doctor is not cancelled today it will still be on the schedule November 5. Wow Fox, way to let that one ride out.

  • Julia

    I didn’t realize that to get syndication you only need 88 episodes. Wasn’t the syndication number 100 episodes before? Did they change it recently?

  • Dan

    @Julia – 88 eps is the minimum, however shows with less have gotten deals but the more episodes a series has the better. Rules of Engagement will have exactly 100 episodes by the end of the season even though it just entered syndication with 87 episodes.

  • Dan

    @Bill – Looks like even the cast of The Mob Doctor is baffled to why the show isn’t cancelled http://hollywoodandswine.com/cast-of-foxs-the-mob-doctor-confused-as-to-why-network-hasnt-cancelled-show-yet

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @dan: you do realize that site is a spoof site, right? Or did you think Seth McFarlane was really hosting the second presidential debate?

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